Preview: Odds stacked in Lions' favour for first Wallabies Test

RTÉ News​

18-07-2025

Times have been tough for the Wallabies in recent seasons, but they haven't lost their sense of humour.
' Wallabies lock in debutant, more Aussies than Welsh in Lions ' was the headline in The Australian on Thursday evening, as Melbourne-born Sione Tuipulotu got the call at inside centre for the British and Irish Lions, and the only Welsh representative, Jac Morgan, missed the cut.
Perhaps they would be better advised to look into how Tuipulotu – Scottish-qualified since birth – fell through the cracks of the Australian system and ended up on the other side of the world, just as Finlay Bealham and Mack Hansen did too.
Financially, the Australians stand to make a fortune off this tour, although the fear is that it could come at the cost of three chastening defeats.
A Wallabies win in Saturday's first Test in Brisbane would give this series lift-off, but their injury list has had other ideas, with two of their most powerful forwards, Will Skelton and Rob Valetini, both ruled out due to calf issues, while Langi Gleeson, who covered for Valetini a fortnight ago in their scatty 21-18 win against Fiji, is also out with a dead leg.
To fill that back row role, enter Nick Champion de Crespigny.
The Western Force flanker may sound like the central character from a BBC period drama, but three seasons at French club Castres mean the 29-year-old plays the game like an MMA fighter.
The other big call Joe Schmidt (above) has had to make has been at out-half, where 22-year-old Tom Lynagh is given the keys to the backline, ahead of Ben Donaldson and James O'Connor, and follows in the footsteps of his father, Wallabies great Michael, who also started against the Lions in the 1989 series.
"I always felt that Michael had a real quiet control of games and a calmness about the way that he ran the game. And I do think there's a bit of that in Tom," Schmidt said, as he backed the Queensland Reds rookie.
"It's always the same when you haven't seen someone at the level and they haven't been put under the pressure that's going to come, then you're not quite sure how things are going to work out. But I have real confidence in Tom and I'm sure Michael does as well.
"So whatever does get thrown at Tom, I am confident that he'll cope and I'm very confident that he'll learn from the occasion.
Meanwhile, the main talking point with the Lions this week has been around who Andy Farrell hasn't picked, rather than who he has.
"As a tighthead, he gives you a point of difference"
Johne Murphy on Tadhg Furlong getting back to his best ahead of the first #Lions2025 Test
Full #RTERugby pod:🎧 https://t.co/ylMSMA4OoE pic.twitter.com/PNTyxHDgE8
— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) July 17, 2025
With Tom Curry starting over Jac Morgan and Josh van der Flier, and Tadhg Beirne getting selected ahead of Ollie Chessum, it's fair to suggest that elements of Farrell's first Test line-up were picked long before this tour even started.
Credit in the bank is always a valuable currency for Farrell, and while Beirne and Curry have arguably been a level below their best so far on tour, both have proven themselves time and again as players who raise their game for the big occasion.
The head coach was at pains to stress how close those back row suggestions were. Indeed, the picture below was his specific response to being asked about how close Morgan was to being selected.
Loose offloads and carelessness in possession have been among the big defects in the Lions performances so far on this tour, but looking through the starting pack Farrell has selected, every player is a ball-carrying option and capable of playing a direct, confrontational game that could be devastating for a Wallabies side missing two of their most powerful forwards.
The Lions have been just above average for large chunks of this tour, although they did look to have raised their intensity by a couple of gears in last weekend's final warm-up game against the AUNZ Invitational XV, even accounting for a dreadful display from their hosts.
The absence of Henry Pollock for this first Test is a disappointment, if only to see how the Wallabies players would have gone after the 20-year-old, who bristled a few in the Australian media this week when he suggested the Lions would like to win this series 3-0.
In reality, the perception of cockiness couldn't be further from the truth.
There has been a paranoid siege-mentality in the Lions camp this week, with only a small number of media permitted to see the opening minutes of training.
A couple of hours after the Wallabies held their captain's run, in front of dozens of cameras, reporters, commentators and even a handful of supporters, an announcement at Suncorp Stadium advised that the Lions would be holding a closed session, and even the stadium maintenance workers had to clear the pitch, much to the bemusement of the Australian press.
The familiarity between Schmidt and almost all of the Lions coaching staff may have something to do with that trepidation.
Farrell (above), Simon Easterby, Andrew Goodman, John Fogarty and Johnny Sexton have all crossed paths with the New Zealander, either at Leinster of Ireland, and even their head of analysis Vinny Hammond is a disciple of the former Ireland coach.
"Obviously you think you know his traits," Farrell said of the familiarity between the coaches.
"The flipside is Joe 100% thinks he knows my traits, or the traits of the players that he's coached.
"But things move on all the time, there's no doubt Joe has been through a lot of great experiences since leaving Ireland.
"There is no doubt he'll be a better coach now, from the experience he had in New Zealand. We saw that with the All Blacks as well.
"You just know they are going to be thoroughly prepared and you know he'll give them an inner confidence that they'll be up for a series win as well."
If the Lions have the edge in the pack, their main task in the backline will be taming the influence of centre Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (above), the 21-year-old star being held up as the potential saviour of Australian rugby.
Suaalii has credited this series with being the main reason he switched from rugby league to union last year, and Farrell will have November's meeting of Ireland and the Wallabies fresh in his mind, where the centre's ability under the high ball caused Ireland real difficulty as they ground out a 22-19 win.
Hugo Keenan, James Lowe and Tommy Freeman will have to be at their best to keep Australia's kicking game in check, but an early injury to any of those three could leave the Lions vulnerable.
Bundee Aki's selection on the bench will give the Lions a powerful punch in the second half, all things going to plan, but with Marcus Smith covering out-half and full-back, the Harlequins man has looked out of place at 15, both in the air and on defence.
Twelve years ago at this ground in Brisbane, only the footwear of Kurtley Beale came between the Wallabies and a surprise win, as he slipped while taking a penalty kick with the final play of the game as the Lions held on for a 23-21 win.
A similarly dramatic finale would spark this series into life.
Verdict: Lions
Australia: Tom Wright; Max Jorgensen, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, Len Ikitau, Harry Potter; Tom Lynagh, Jake Gordon; James Slipper, Matt Faessler, Alan Ala'alatoa; Nick Frost, Jeremy Williams; Nick Champion de Crespigny, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson (capt).
Replacements: Billy Pollard, Angus Bell, Tom Robertson, Tom Hooper, Carlo Tizzano, Tate McDermott, Ben Donaldson, Andrew Kellaway.
British and Irish Lions: Hugo Keenan; Tommy Freeman, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, James Lowe; Finn Russell, Jamison Gibson-Park; Ellis Genge, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Maro Itoje, Joe McCarthy; Tadhg Beirne, Tom Curry, Jack Conan.