The Rangers' playoff path: Analyzing schedule difficulty, rival teams, key players

New York Times

01-04-2025

If any one of the NHL teams fighting for the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference had gotten hot over the past few weeks, it would probably have a spot close to secured. But that simply has not happened, leaving a jumble of clubs with middling records still in contention.
The New York Rangers, of course, are one of them.
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Through Sunday, the Montreal Canadiens have 77 points and sit in the second wild-card spot. The Rangers hold the same number of points but have played one more game (74 to 73), so their points percentage is worse. The Columbus Blue Jackets are two points back at 75 but have played one fewer game (72) than the Canadiens and two fewer than the Rangers. The Detroit Red Wings and the New York Islanders both have 74 points in 73 games.
None of these teams are playing particularly well right now. Here are their respective records over their past 10 games:
• Canadiens: 4-3-3
• Rangers: 4-5-1
• Blue Jackets: 3-6-1
• Red Wings: 4-6-0
• Islanders: 3-4-3
Note that Montreal is the only one with an above-.500 points percentage here — and even it endured a five-game winless streak during this stretch. This race isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for the depth of the Eastern Conference. Out in the Western Conference, meanwhile, 11th-place Utah has more points (78) than all these teams.
But someone in the East has to make it, and it very well could be the Rangers. Here's their path to the playoffs over the final eight games of the season.
If any of these bubble teams go on a heater, they could fully secure a spot. The Rangers have eight games left, starting Wednesday against the Minnesota Wild. If they go, say, 6-1-1 down the stretch, it's hard to see any of the other clubs catching or staying ahead of them. But that would mean doing something New York hasn't consistently done since the start of the season: stringing together wins. The Rangers' last three-game winning streak came in November.
Heading into Monday, the Rangers had the second-toughest remaining schedule in the NHL, according to Tankathon.com. That's less than ideal for a team with a 9-21-5 record against teams currently in playoff position. Aside from the Flyers, every New York opponent has a record above .500, including six games against teams in postseason position.
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Perhaps one saving grace for the Rangers is that some teams close to clinching might not have the same desperation near the end of the season as a club fighting for its life. That's hard to count on, though; the Rangers theoretically should have come out like a desperate team in several recent games, yet failed to rise to the occasion.
In colleague Dom Luszczyszyn's updated playoff odds, the Rangers have the third-best chance of the competing clubs to make the playoffs. Here's how they all shake out:
• Canadiens: 37 percent
• Blue Jackets: 27 percent
• Rangers: 26 percent
• Islanders: 9 percent
• Red Wings: 4 percent
The Red Wings are the only team with a harder remaining schedule than the Rangers, which likely contributes to their low odds. The Blue Jackets and Islanders are both also in the top 10, sitting at seventh and eighth respectively. The Canadiens are the only one of these clubs with the luxury of playing more games against non-playoff teams than playoff ones; they've been playing far from consistent hockey of late, but their remaining schedule is the fifth-easiest in the league.
Where to begin? Plenty of Rangers players have underachieved this season, including all of their highest-paid skaters.
Chris Kreider, the team's longest-tenured player, has endured a difficult season compounded by injuries. He collected his first primary assist of the season against the San Jose Sharks, which is almost unfathomable considering his power-play role. He still has 19 goals, good for third on the team, but the Rangers have needed more from him this season. If he can produce close to the rate he did in 2023-24 (39 goals, 75 points for 0.9 points per game) over the final stretch, it could help the Rangers sneak into the playoffs.
It would also likely mean the power play is scoring more; that unit ranks 27th league-wide this year, a sharp decline from their No. 3 ranking in 2023-24 and a big reason why the team has fallen in the standings. Kreider and that group as a whole need to raise their level while on the man advantage.
It would be unfair to say that any of the young forwards — Brennan Othmann, Brett Berard and now Gabe Perreault — need to step up given their age, but getting contributions from them would be a nice bonus if the team is going to make a push.
Artemi Panarin isn't at the same level as he was in 2023-24, when he had 49 goals, 120 points and finished fifth in Hart Trophy voting. In March, though, he had 10 goals and 20 points in 15 games, similar rates to his numbers from last year. The Rangers are in the bottom half of the league in goals per game. They will need to score down the stretch if they're going to make the playoffs, and Panarin is the best on the team at generating offense. Having him play like the MVP vote-getter he was last year could go a long way.
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Then, of course, there's Igor Shesterkin. As a scout told colleague Arthur Staple earlier this season, Shesterkin is the Rangers' deodorant: 'He cleans up the stink.' Shesterkin ranks second in the league in Evolving-Hockey's goals saved above expected metric despite having only a .906 save percentage — a testament to both his excellence and the porousness of the Rangers' defense. New York can't afford to have him falter, and that's a big ask given how much he is playing. He's already started 55 games this year despite twice missing time to injury. The star goalie will likely blow past his career-high 58 starts from 2022-23.
If the Rangers make the playoffs, they will almost certainly play the Washington Capitals, the East's current standings leader. It would be a first-round rematch from last year, albeit with the teams in opposite positions. Washington barely made the 2024 postseason as the No. 8 seed and the Rangers were the Presidents' Trophy winners — another reminder that a lot can change in a year.
If the Rangers miss the playoffs, a long offseason awaits. General manager Chris Drury started remaking his roster during the season, trading away Jacob Trouba, Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren, Jimmy Vesey and Reilly Smith, and his work is almost certainly incomplete. The rosters from this season's opening night and the next one will look very, very different.