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Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
2025 PWHL Finals preview: Ottawa Charge and Minnesota Frost battle for Walter Cup
OTTAWA – The Minnesota Frost are back in the PWHL Finals after winning the league's inaugural Walter Cup last season. The odds, according to Dom Luszczyszyn, say they're the favorites against the Ottawa Charge. Advertisement Could the Frost win back-to-back Walter Cup championships? Or will the Charge win in their first playoff appearance? If you're still looking for reasons to get behind either Minnesota or Ottawa before the PWHL Finals begin on Tuesday, here are three reasons why each team could win the 2025 Walter Cup. Three reasons Ottawa will win 1. A surging Gwyneth Philips Ottawa's semifinals series against the Montreal Victoire was a battle of the goaltenders. And Philips came out on top. The rookie netminder has been dialed in since taking on Ottawa's starting role with Emerance Maschmeyer on long-term injured reserve. She won four of the final five games down the stretch of the regular season and has been the best goalie of the postseason with a league-leading 1.14 goals against average and .956 save percentage. Only Montreal's Ann-Renée Desbiens (132) has made more saves in the postseason than Philips (129). Advertisement 'She's been phenomenal,' said captain Brianne Jenner on Saturday. 'It's great to see her come in and play the way she's playing. We have so much confidence playing in front of her. And I think when you try to go on a run like this, it takes depth, it takes players stepping up in crucial moments, and Gwyn has done that since she entered the net.' It's fair to wonder whether playing against Minnesota — with the most potent offense in the PWHL — might change things for Philips. The Frost scored 18 goals in the first round against the Toronto Sceptres, a marked difference from Montreal's six against the Charge. Minnesota also beat the Boston Fleet 8-1 in its final game of the season. But none of those last five games have been against a goalie who is clicking quite like Philips heading into Game 1. In the regular-season finale, Minnesota faced Aerin Frankel, one of the very best goalies in the world, who was playing her first game after an injury that took her out of the Women's World Championship gold medal game. Against Toronto, the Frost were shooting on Kristen Campbell, who appeared to lose a step once the postseason began with a league-worst .813 save percentage. Ottawa coach Carla MacLeod told media on Saturday that when Philips is at her best, like she appears to be now, she's 'rising to those (big) moments and really embracing them.' Advertisement 'Her tracking and her fight on every puck, every rebound,' she added. 'She just doesn't give up on a play until there's a whistle.' On the other side of the ice, Nicole Hensley and Maddie Rooney make a solid tandem for Minnesota, but they have been inconsistent at times this season. Against Toronto, Rooney allowed eight goals against in two games (both wins). Hensley allowed six goals. Something worth keeping an eye on: Philips has played more than double the amount of minutes (314) as Rooney (120) or Hensley (134). Without Maschmeyer, Ottawa does not have the benefit of rolling out a tandem. Still, Philips has been significantly better between the pipes thus far. 2. Strong defensive structure While Philips has (rightfully) gotten a ton of the credit for Ottawa's upset against Montreal, the team's defense should probably get a share of the spotlight. Advertisement Since coming back from the women's worlds break on April 26, Ottawa has given up just 12 goals in seven games (1.71 goals per game), the fewest in the league over that final stretch of the regular season and into playoffs. In the semifinals, it was a combination of Philips' strong play and heavy shutdown minutes by Ottawa's top line (Gabbie Hughes, Emily Clark and Mannon McMahon) and top defense pair (Jocelyne Larocque and Ashton Bell) that was able to shut down Montreal captain Marie-Philip Poulin. MacLeod would argue that it was the team's collective attention to detail on the defensive side of the puck that gave them so much success. 'It's minuscule details when it comes to defending,' she said. 'But when you execute them, they have high impact.' In four games – or 15+ periods of hockey, largely thanks to the quadruple-overtime Game 2 – Montreal only had 45 high-danger chances, or just three per period of play. That kind of stingy defense could really help against Minnesota. Advertisement And beyond just the defensive details, Ottawa plays a fast and physical style, which bodes well for playoff hockey. Larocque specifically played Poulin hard, but made smart plays to get the puck quickly out of Ottawa's zone. She and Bell will be critical against Minnesota's top line of Taylor Heise, Kendall Coyne Schofield and Michela Cava. Having home ice advantage could be huge for Ottawa to get its top shutdown players against Minnesota's biggest stars. But the difference between Minnesota and Montreal is that the Frost have more than just one line that can score (more on that later). That's where Ottawa's overall structure and depth on the blue line will come in, with players like Zoe Boyd, Aneta Tejralová and Ronja Savolainen already showing they can step up in the postseason. 3. Scoring depth To no real fault of the organization, Ottawa isn't a market that has been able to attract the same big-ticket free agents as other Canadian teams. Sarah Nurse, Renata Fast and Daryl Watts are all from Toronto and wanted to play for the Sceptres. Poulin and Desbiens are from Quebec, which made Montreal a natural fit. Advertisement That meant Ottawa has largely been built around several good-to-great players, rather than a handful of local superstars surrounded by a supporting cast. Considering the Charge are in the Finals, that method has worked out pretty well. Ottawa isn't as top-heavy as, say, Montreal, with offense spread out across the lineup. The hope for the Charge is that their lines will come in waves with speed and an in-your-face style that can knock the Frost off their game. And on any given night, Ottawa has options on who might step up and be the star. In Game 1 against Montreal, Shiann Darkangelo, Boston's pick at No. 70 in the inaugural 2023 draft, scored the game-winner. In Game 3, McMahon scored the lone goal to win 1-0 and take a 2-1 series lead back to Ottawa. In Game 4, Ottawa native Rebecca Leslie, who scored one goal all regular season, opened the scoring just two minutes into the game. Not to mention, with reasons No. 1 and 2 in mind, Ottawa seems comfortable winning games 2-1. Three reasons Minnesota will win 1. Tremendous star power Having a deep team is great, but so is having depth legitimate star power. And Minnesota definitely checks both boxes. Advertisement Its top line is one of the very best in the league with Heise, Cava and Coyne Schofield combining for six goals and 16 points in the first round and all sitting top-five in PWHL playoff scoring. Cava is a big-time playoff performer and has been since she played for the Toronto Six in the now-defunct Premier Hockey Federation. Heise could very well win back-to-back playoff MVP awards. And Coyne Schofield consistently sparked Minnesota's offense against Toronto, especially with a two-goal performance in Game 4. 'She possesses a unique talent and a unique skill set,' said Minnesota coach Ken Klee. 'For us, she was our MVP this year. She brought her speed and competitiveness which basically raised our whole group around her.' The Frost also have three legitimate No. 1 defenders in Lee Stecklein, Sophie Jaques and Claire Thompson spread across the top four. And a second-line center in Kelly Pannek who was among the top scorers for Team USA at women's worlds in April. a third line built around 2024 first-round pick Britta Curl-Salemme, who was third in rookie scoring this season. Her linemate Brooke McQuigge was fourth. Minnesota's fourth line – Katy Knoll, Liz Schepers and Klára Hymlárová – is a pain to play against and contributed two goals in the semifinals. Schepers, if you recall, scored the title-clinching goal last year against Boston. Advertisement No team has scored more goals in the playoffs than Minnesota (18), with 11 different players finding the back of the net. 'We have a team that is built for a series,' said Klee. 'And built to go far.' 2. Offense from the blue line Minnesota's top line takes up three of the top five spots in PWHL playoff scoring. The other two? Those belong to Stecklein and Jaques, who are tied with six points behind Heise's seven. Jaques, the 2023 Patty Kazmaier Award winner, is more known for her offensive game, while Stecklein has long made a name for herself as an elite shutdown defender. Still, nobody has more goals in the playoffs than Stecklein, who has been on an offensive hot streak since women's worlds. She scored three goals in Minnesota's last two must-win regular-season games and now three in the playoffs. Advertisement 'Obviously, she's known as a world-class defensive defender,' Klee said after Stecklein's two-goal Game 2 performance in the semis last week. 'It's the playoffs. We know we have to find different ways to score goals and different people have to contribute. She knows that she exemplifies that and that's why she's one of our leaders and one of our best players.' Between Jaques, Stecklein and Mellissa Channell-Watkins – Jaques' ever-steady defense partner – the Minnesota blue line has combined for six goals, which isn't far off the entire Ottawa team's production in the semifinals against Montreal (8). It's the same amount of goals that Montreal managed to score over the entire series (6). That kind of offense from the blue line should give Minnesota an edge in the Finals. Thompson, the Olympic record holder for points by a defender, is bound to score eventually, too. 3. Playoffs monster Taylor Heise She wasn't one of the very top scorers in the PWHL this season, finishing a modest 10th with 22 points in 29 games, and did not get a nod for Forward of the Year. But Heise is, once again, showing that she's one of the best in the world when it matters most. In Game 4 against Toronto, she scored the game-winning goal in overtime to send the Frost back to the Finals. (It was Heise who scored the series-clincher against Toronto last season, too.) Her seven points in four games leads all players in scoring – and is just one shy of her point total from last year's postseason. Advertisement 'She's a big-time player and she wants to shine when the lights are bright,' said Klee. 'For her standing up in (the playoffs) is just a way of reaffirming that she's one of the best players in the world.' Last year, Heise didn't even really turn on the jets until the Finals, where she scored three goals and six points in five games en route to winning the Walter Cup and playoff MVP. So if there's another level to her game when the puck drops on Tuesday, it could spell trouble for the Charge. This article originally appeared in The Athletic. Ottawa Senators, Minnesota Wild, NHL, Women's Hockey 2025 The Athletic Media Company
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL Western Conference final preview: Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers
By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman Everyone loves a rematch until things start to go stale — and this year's Western Conference final is a nice blend of holdover talent, new blood and fresh storylines. Edmonton's megapowers are back … but all of a sudden, they have a more well-rounded supporting cast. Dallas' deep cast of quality NHL players is mainly intact … and now they have a new alpha dog leading the pack. Advertisement Can Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl hurdle Dallas on their way to another Stanley Cup Final? Will Mikko Rantanen and co. flip the script? It's time to see who's the best in this year's West. You guessed it, folks — it's another close series. Half the series in these playoffs have featured 55-45 odds or tighter. It's coin-flip city, and the clash between the Stars and Oilers likely will be no exception. Maybe it comes down to luck, maybe it comes down to who wants it more, maybe it comes down to which team brings its best at the right time. From the outset, though, it's anybody's to lose. Sorry if that's boring analysis, but that's how it often is at this stage of the playoffs — and the hockey is better for it. Series aren't won on paper, but that's especially true when two teams are so closely matched. At full strength, the Oilers are probably the better team and carry a slight edge for a reason. They showed as much last spring and could do so again this year, given how they've rolled recently. But the Oilers won't be at full strength to start and the Stars have home-ice advantage. That could be enough for revenge. Few teams can stack up to the Stars' plus-36 Offensive Rating. The Oilers are one of the few; their plus-50 Offensive Rating leads the entire playoff field. The Oilers were one of the best offense-generating teams at five-on-five in the regular season; their 2.88 xGF/60 ranked second to the Hurricanes. But Edmonton struggled to convert those chances into goals, especially after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. That hasn't been a problem this postseason, though. The Oilers have flipped a switch and poured on offense against their opponents through two rounds, converting at a rate of 2.99 GF/60. That five-on-five offense helped make up for a power play that only converted once in Round 2. After a few years of being unstoppable on the advantage, the Oilers' power play was a lot more human this year. It was a difference-maker in Round 1, but wasn't nearly as effective against Vegas. Advertisement The story is the opposite for the Stars — a red-hot power play has helped make up for their less-than-stellar five-on-five scoring, despite an uptick in expected goal creation against the Jets. The gap closes between these two teams defensively. Regular-season numbers work against the Stars, who struggled post-4 Nations with Miro Heiskanen sidelined. Dallas was far from perfect in its own zone against the Avalanche, but tightened up in Round 2. Jake Oettinger stood tall behind that defense, especially in short-handed situations. The Oilers had the slight edge in expected goal suppression in the regular season. But there was even less separation between these teams at five-on-five in Round 2, both in terms of expected and actual goals against. The penalty kill is a different story; despite making improvements between rounds, Edmonton's goalies haven't been as stout. Can Mikko Rantanen tilt the scales in Dallas' favor after last year's loss? In the 2024 Western Conference final, Edmonton outscored Dallas 17-14. That gap, as we've seen on a couple different occasions this spring, is a period's worth of work for Rantanen — so the answer here, on some level, is an obvious 'yes.' Thanks, everyone. We can move on. Forget being glib, though. Rantanen is a needle-mover, a big-game player, a capital-G Guy — any bit of shorthand used to describe someone who can swing the result of a playoff series applies to Dallas' newest foundational piece. He was the difference in Round 1 against Colorado, leading Dallas in goals (five) and assists (seven), and putting up a hat trick in Game 7. In Round 2 against the Jets, he again led them in points (seven) and had a larger impact at five-on-five; the Stars won his minutes 6-1, up from 5-3 against the Avalanche. If Dallas could build a time machine and port Rantanen over to last year's matchup, they'd have made the Stanley Cup Final. In that series, Dallas got outclassed in terms of top-end talent. McDavid and Draisaitl, as they are in most instances, were in a galaxy unto themselves. The Stars' top line of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Tyler Seguin drove play (74 percent expected goal share, 42-30 edge in attempts), but Dallas only won their minutes 3-1. With an elite finisher such as Rantanen on Hintz's right wing, it's easy to imagine a handful more of those chances turning into goals. Advertisement What really hurt the Stars, though, was that they got beat in depth scoring. Seven Stars scored goals, compared to 11 for the Oilers. Matt Duchene and Joe Pavelski — crucial top-six pieces — were both kept off the scoresheet entirely. The Hintz line drove play but couldn't score enough, Dallas' other two primary lines (Wyatt Johnston between Logan Stankoven and Jamie Benn, Duchene between Mason Marchment and Pavelski) were chasing the puck too frequently, and the Duchene line was a mess. An unquestioned first-liner such as Rantanen helps everyone else slot in a bit more comfortably. A big part of the reason Edmonton eliminated Dallas in six was also, of course, the power play; Dallas put up a goose egg in 28 minutes at five-on-four, didn't do a good job of creating chances (2.25 expected goals) and gave up a short-handed goal. Their counterparts scored four times in 14:36. It's tough to win with that sort of disparity. This spring, Dallas has the No. 3 power play in terms of efficiency (30.8 percent success rate) and goals/60 (11.4), both up dramatically from 2024. Rantanen, naturally, is a big part of that, tying with Thomas Harley for the team lead in power-play points. None of this is meant to say that Rantanen makes Dallas a lock. Far from it — with Carolina and then initially with the Stars, we saw him struggle to combine play-driving and finishing. It was, at times, one or the other. If he maintains his level from the first two rounds, though, odds are good that this year's version of Stars-Oilers follows a different path. Can Edmonton's depth keep shining? Star power leads the way in hockey, especially in the playoffs. But any team with hopes of going on a deep run needs some scoring depth. This year's regular-season team didn't have it. It was McDavid, Draisaitl and a cast of Other Guys. McDavid and Draisaitl both crossed the 100-point threshold. No other forward even reached 50. It was a throwback to past iterations of the Oilers who had fallen short. Advertisement That said, there's a lot more support to go around this postseason. Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman are back to being reliable contributors. Connor Brown's speedy play has chipped in another seven points. Corey Perry has scored five goals so far, while Adam Henrique added another three. Even Kasperi Kapanen, who was inserted into the lineup for Game 5, has made an impact with the series-clinching goal in Game 6. The players are picking up the pace around their core, and coach Kris Knoblauch has pushed the right buttons with lineup adjustments to deepen this team's approach. Going into the playoffs, the Oilers were projected to have only four above-average forwards based on their Net Rating. Instead, they have 11 through two rounds. If the depth can keep clicking, it should help move the needle against an opponent as deep as the Stars. On paper, we know the key arguments for both sides. The Oilers have the best players in the series; the Stars have more good players beyond them. That's at least how it's supposed to go, and while it may still go that way, the script has been flipped so far. The best player in these playoffs is arguably playing for the Stars. The deepest team in these playoffs is arguably the Oilers. For both sides, it feels like a new wrinkle, one that reveals a path to prevail. It also means the usual strengths have room for improvement. For McDavid and Draisaitl, we're speaking in relative terms. With a Net Rating north of plus-4.0 in these playoffs, both players have been just as valuable as Rantanen on the other side. In fact, they've been exactly as good as you'd expect, playing right in line with their projected pace. They're not quite as offensively prolific, but are doing more than enough defensively to make up for it, Draisaitl especially. His plus-1.4 Defensive Rating leads all forwards. McDavid and Draisaitl have been exceptional. As usual. As expected. But in the playoffs, they have a reputation for being otherworldly, elevating their games to heights that felt impossible. Per 82 games, McDavid's Net Rating jumped 10.6 goals in the playoffs over the last three years. Draisaitl's jumped 7.6 goals. We haven't seen that same elevation in these playoffs. Not yet, anyway. Advertisement It's an unfairly high bar, but for the two best players in the world, it might be one they have to rise to, again, in order to beat Dallas. On the other hand … knowing what they're capable of, knowing they haven't hit that point, and knowing what's at stake is a terrifying trifecta. Expect greatness in this series. That means Dallas' strengths have to be equal to the task, and there's a lot more to worry about on their side of the ledger. Aside from Rantanen, the Stars' plethora of talented forwards have not been good enough. Hintz, riding shotgun next to Rantanen, has been solid enough. That he's second among forwards with 10 points — nine back of Rantanen — is troubling. During the regular season, the Stars had nine forwards scoring at a 50-point pace or higher. During the playoffs, they have just three. And Johnston, with eight points in 13 games, only barely qualifies. Mikael Granlund at seven is close, too. It's a low bar given the talent the Stars have, one that their talented forward group has struggled to clear. Duchene, who scored 30 goals and 82 points this year, has zero goals and five assists. Seguin has five points in 13 games, Marchment has four and Benn has only three. Robertson has a lone secondary assist in his six games since returning. We can cut Seguin and Robertson some slack, given they're coming off serious injuries and probably aren't 100 percent. But this team is supposed to be deep enough to withstand that. So far so good, but it can't just be the Rantanen show against Edmonton. Part of the struggle is Dallas' blue line, which was a bit of a horror show before Heiskanen's return. Harley has been a revelation and a key factor to Dallas surviving Heiskanen's injury, but the rest of the group didn't hold up well. Now that the team's top steed is back — and back to his usual level after his Game 6 heroics — it's possible that changes. It's tough to create offense without a back end that's able to support it. With Heiskanen back, things fall into place. Having him and Harley running things is a big deal. Having two top-10 defensemen is a major competitive advantage. They'll need more out of Esa Lindell in a shutdown role, though. Yes, he's playing tough minutes. Yes, he's doing it with Cody Ceci as his partner. And yes, the Stars have limited goals-against despite that. But they're also playing with some serious fire considering the chances the shutdown pair has allowed. Against McDavid and Draisaitl, the Stars need Lindell to be a lot closer to his regular-season self. Advertisement This is also where the Oilers have a decent edge, especially with the impending return of Mattias Ekholm. While the Oilers may not appear deep up front on paper (though they're certainly playing that way), they are deep on the back end. Evan Bouchard was arguably their best player against Vegas and continues to be a playoff dawg. But more important is how the rest of the group has played in Ekholm's absence. Jake Walman and John Klingberg have formed an unbelievably strong pair, with the latter looking like his vintage self. That duo has earned 66 percent of actual and expected goals during the postseason and even took on the toughest matchup in Game 5 against Jack Eichel. That's a major development, one that has allowed the Oilers to heavily control the pace of play. Brett Kulak has been a defensive rock, too. If Darnell Nurse can get back to his regular-season form, look out. The great equalizer for the Stars is Oettinger, who has obvious series-stealing potential. With 10.4 goals saved above expected and a .919 save percentage, he's been one of the best goalies during the playoffs. His game comes alive in the postseason, and there's no doubt he's ready to avenge last year's duel against Stuart Skinner. All due credit to Skinner for how his game turned around against Vegas in relief, and he's a great goalie when he's on. But Oettinger is the obviously safer bet between the pipes. Given how the Oilers have looked since Game 3 of the first round, he'll need to be at his very best. Mattias Ekholm vs. Miro Heiskanen The Oilers and Stars went into the postseason with a similar problem: finding a way to survive without one of their top defensemen. Ekholm, like Heiskanen, isn't the flashiest defenseman but makes an impact on both ends of the ice. Filling that void hasn't been easy — Nurse has been leaned on more in his absence, along with deadline-add Walman. The Oilers will be without the injured Ekholm for at least another two games, though. Advertisement That's what gives the Stars an edge in this matchup. Heiskanen, their No. 1, is already back in action and up to speed. Not only does Dallas benefit from his high-caliber play — and in Game 6 against Winnipeg, he dominated with a 46-13 edge in shot attempts in his five-on-five minutes and a 92 percent expected goal rate — his return means the coaches don't have to deploy lesser defenders, such as Ceci and Ilya Lyubushkin, in meaningful minutes as often. The path to victory seems clear for both teams. Dallas needs Oettinger to limit the damage done by McDavid and Draisaitl and for Rantanen to keep the train rolling. Edmonton needs its all-world duo to step up and for its depth players to fill in the gaps. Drop the puck. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Photo of Mikko Rantanen: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL Eastern Conference final preview: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers
By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille If not for a pesky New York Rangers second-round win last season (which, if we're being honest, looks a little fortunate in hindsight after their 2025 downfall), this would've been the third straight year that the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers meet in the Eastern Conference final. Advertisement Carolina is the class of the Metropolitan. Florida is the class of the Atlantic. The East goes through them. More specifically, it goes through the Panthers, who are looking to make their third straight Stanley Cup Final. Can the Hurricanes stop them? It'll be tight. At least, it should be. When these two teams faced off two years ago, it was tight — with every game being decided by a single goal and some with many overtimes. It's just that every time, the coin flipped Panthers. Sometimes hockey is like that, where a series that should be tight ends up anything but. It's possible there's something within the Panthers locker room that makes them innate winners, able to get a consistent coin-flip edge. This version of the Panthers looks the scariest yet, and that added killer instinct makes them feel like an impossible out. They're favorites for a reason. The beauty of this series is that the Hurricanes will have a shot at redemption, a chance to show they're just as worthy. On paper, with the help of home ice, they're not far off thanks to a deep team that executes a strong defensive structure. In practice, they'll have to earn every inch to prove that. The Eastern Conference final is a matchup of two of the best five-on-five teams in the league. The Corsi Canes' identity holds strong, as this team generates a ton of shots on a nightly basis. The shot volume and quality are there, but the scoresheet doesn't always reflect it. That was true in the regular season and continues in the playoffs, with the team creating 3.09 xGF/60 but only 2.16 GF/60 to show for it. The Panthers were in a similar boat in the regular season, but are converting at a higher rate so far through two rounds with 3.20 GF/60, one of the best rates of the postseason. The real question is whose offense makes it through their opponents' defense, where there is the narrowest of gaps between these two teams. Advertisement The Canes' shot suppression was elite in the regular season, but their expected and actual goals against were only average. The latter has changed in the playoffs, with Frederik Andersen standing tall in goal. The Panthers were one of the stingiest regular-season teams, allowing only 2.27 xGA/60 and even fewer goals against. That stout defense has stood out through two rounds, but the goaltending hasn't been as sparkling. The defensive battle extends to the penalty kill between two of the best short-handed teams. Florida limits its opponents' time and space, while the Canes have a more disruptive approach. If that neutralizes both teams' power plays, then five-on-five scoring will be all the more important in this series. How big is Florida's star-power edge? In a rare change of pace, the Hurricanes had the edge in star power at the top of the lineup in Round 2: Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho were the two best players in the series against the Washington Capitals. But that doesn't project to be the case in the Eastern Conference final. The Panthers aren't a team of aging stars and up-and-comers, like the Caps. The reigning champs have a deep lineup of stars that can match up with some of the best in the league. Up front, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk combine to a projected Net Rating of plus-46. The Hurricanes' top forwards — Aho, Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov — on the other hand, add up to plus-29. On paper, that edge looks substantial. But the game isn't just played on paper. The model is harsh on players like Svechnikov, who didn't have the best regular season. His 2.34 points per 60 in the regular season was fine, but nothing game-breaking. Below the surface, his five-on-five impacts underwhelmed relative to the rest of the team. And this time, there isn't someone like Jake Guentzel to jump over him in the depth chart and provide that extra oomph in the playoffs. Advertisement But unlike last year, the Canes don't need someone from the outside to give them a boost of star power. Svechnikov is proving he can be The Guy for Carolina. Not only is he scoring at a higher pace with 2.98 points per 60 in 10 games, but it's also how he's putting up points. He is playing to his strengths as someone who can create a lot of dangerous chances and convert on them at an impressive rate. For a team that always needs more finish, Svechnikov is bringing it with 2.65 goals per 60, which leads all skaters this postseason. Between Svechnikov's star-caliber playoff performance and Jarvis' and Aho's two-way play, the Canes' top forwards are pacing a combined plus-42 Net Rating. And that's equal to the Panthers' current pace. Barkov and Reinhart have had a fine postseason so far, but neither has dominated their minutes through two rounds. And even more noticeable is that Tkachuk hasn't reached his usual playoff ceiling just yet. Injuries could be a factor here, considering Tkachuk missed all regular-season play after the 4 Nations Face-Off. As much as he shone in big moments against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1, he wasn't as impactful against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Round 2. The Panthers were the better team in his minutes below the surface, with a 58 percent expected goal rate, but he only tallied four assists in seven games — two at even strength, two on the power play. If Aho and Jarvis can match Barkov and Reinhart's impact, the series could come down to whether Svechnikov can surpass Tkachuk. That didn't seem possible when the playoffs began, but it is now through two rounds of play. That could be the key to a Canes series win. As much as two rounds of playoff action matter, history is still on Florida's side. The Panthers have shown exactly what they're capable of in two consecutive trips to the Cup Final. That makes them the safer bet on paper, but the matchup is much closer than it looks. Advertisement Can Frederik Andersen stay hot? Andersen's always been somewhat of a wild card — not because of his skill, but because of his durability. When he is healthy enough to play, he can be a real difference-maker. That's been a theme throughout his career. Just look at his last few seasons with the Hurricanes: injuries limited him to 22 regular-season appearances this year, 16 last year and 34 the year before. He even missed Game 5 of Round 1 a few weeks ago after a collision with Timo Meier. A goalie can't help bad injury luck, but can work to be the best version of themself when healthy, and Andersen has done that this year. He saved 15.8 goals above expected in 16 games and has raised his level in the playoffs. Andersen has given his team a chance to win with a quality start in eight of nine games, which adds up to a GSAx of 15, leading all goalies this spring. Can he keep it up? The Hurricanes usually don't need a game-breaker in net; they need someone who can come up with timely saves when chances sneak past their defense. Andersen has delivered that through two rounds against easier competition. But the Panthers are a different animal, so this will be a real test for the Canes' back end. In theory, the Panthers have a sizable edge at the top of the lineup. Barkov, Reinhart and Tkachuk are the best players in this series — a matchup problem the likes of which the Hurricanes have yet to face in these playoffs. The New Jersey Devils only had Nico Hischier to worry about, and the Hurricanes had the star-power edge against the Capitals. Against Florida, it's a different ballgame. As good as Aho, Jarvis and Svechnikov have been, this series will be a challenge. In practice, though, the Hurricanes could have a bigger problem: Florida's depth. Usually, that's Carolina's biggest advantage, especially on home ice. The Hurricanes' top line is generally good enough to win their matchups or at least keep things close against top-heavy teams, but it's the second, third and fourth lines where Carolina's real edge shines. That may prove much more difficult in this series. Advertisement It wasn't the Panthers' top guys that beat the Lightning or Maple Leafs — it was the totality of a relentless top nine that sent wave after wave of pressure. And it was primarily a third line anchored by deadline-day acquisition Brad Marchand and aided by Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen that has been a matchup nightmare so far. Without any of those three on the ice against Tampa Bay or Toronto, the scoreline was almost even (16-15) through two rounds at five-on-five. When they're on the ice, though, the Panthers are up 10-2. That's been the difference. The Hurricanes are significantly more equipped to handle that task than the Lightning or Leafs, two top-heavy teams. They control play better and have needle-movers through all four lines, so it's unlikely Marchand and company will feast to the same degree here. But the likelihood that Florida still wins that matchup anyway is bad math for Carolina, which normally has a stranglehold further down the lineup. Usually, the depth can make up for whatever top-of-the-lineup inefficiencies Carolina has. Here? It's a lot trickier. In that sense, the Hurricanes will need a lot more out of Jordan Staal. The veteran shutdown center is still projected to be one of the league's best defensive forwards, but he hasn't delivered on that promise in these playoffs yet. His 39 percent goal rate is a team-worst, and with 2.84 xGA/60, he's not even limiting chances against. Staal still takes on the toughest matchups for the Hurricanes and will have his work cut out for him here. It's not all on him, but he serves as a strong starting point. If Staal can be his Selke self, the Hurricanes have a shot. The version we've seen in the playoffs so far won't cut it. No matter how you slice it — player by player, line by line or as a whole — Florida's forwards are just better. Based on that alone, this series probably feels like a mismatch. And we didn't even mention Carter Verhaeghe or Sam Bennett yet, either, two guys known to deliver when it matters most. The Panthers are loaded with weapons up front. Carolina makes up ground with an extremely deep back end and a potential edge between the pipes. As loaded as the Panthers are offensively, they'll face their toughest defensive challenge yet in Carolina. That's led by Jaccob Slavin, one of the league's absolute best two-way defenders. He's a premier shutdown threat who doesn't sacrifice offense to get there, even if he doesn't put up points. Brent Burns has been a suitable partner for him despite his age and the pair has heavily outscored their opponents so far while playing the toughest minutes. Advertisement Beyond them the Hurricanes have no holes. The second pair of Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield is solid in both directions, while Shayne Gostisbehere delivers some offensive punch in a sheltered role. Sean Walker has been shockingly excellent in these playoffs, too. While the Panthers can more than match the top of that group with the likes of Gustav Forsling, Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad, the blue line thins out a bit after them. As solid as the trifecta of Niko Mikkola, Nate Schmidt and Dmitry Kulikov are defensively, they all lack offensive dimension. The X-factor with Florida's blue line is Seth Jones, who has been a defensive beast in these playoffs. The Panthers have allowed just 1.8 xGA/60 and GA/60 with Jones on the ice, both of which are right up there with the team's best. His plus-2.3 Defensive Rating leads the playoffs, a strong statement of what Jones is capable of in the right situation. He may not have provided the expected offensive jolt, especially on the power play, but he has solidified Florida's blue line. All of that could be moot if Andersen stays hot, and that's where the Panthers will need a dialed-in Sergei Bobrovsky to bring it home. Two years ago, Bobrovsky was near perfect against Carolina allowing just six goals over four games thanks to a .966 save percentage where Bobrovsky saved a mind-boggling 12.8 goals above expected. The Panthers won't need that same level of play to get by, but they will need Bobrovsky at his best against Carolina's barrage of shots. That was a shaky bet halfway through the series against Toronto, but the fact he started to round into form could be a scary sign for Carolina. Going into Game 4, Bobrovsky had a below-average GSAx rate in six of eight games leading to an .875 save percentage and 3.7 goals allowed above expected — the third-worst mark in the playoffs. In the four games since, he had a .957 and saved 8.2 goals above expected. He looks locked in and the Hurricanes look designed to feed into that. Advertisement The Hurricanes have the talent to make this close, but they'll have to prove themselves against the defending champs who simply have a little bit more. Jaccob Slavin vs. Gustav Forsling Ask any hockey person who the best defenders in the world are and you'll likely get two of the same guys mentioned a lot: Slavin and Forsling. They're the new blueprint for shutdown excellence. Slavin and Forsling are rocks for their respective teams, the rare No. 1 defenseman whose primary focus is their defensive game rather than dynamic offense — though not sacrificing offense in the name of defense is part of the key. Perhaps there's a lesson there for teams angling to go as deep as these two teams routinely do. One of those lessons is what good defense looks like. With Slavin and Forsling, it's smarts more than snarl. It's moving the puck more than staying at home. It's playing the puck more than laying the body. More than anything, it's about finding the perfect balance between safe and aggressive, picking spots and snuffing out danger before there's even a threat of it. Proactive instead of reactive. The two are a major catalyst for their teams reaching the conference finals yet again. Now they battle for defensive supremacy to see who gets to go further. The Hurricanes are more than good enough to win this series with plenty of attention to detail around the margins. Andersen at his best could be enough to put them over the top. But they'll need the bulk of the lineup, the most important players, to step up in order to counter Florida's best. That's a tall order given how Florida has played so far — no matter how close it looks on paper. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey-Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Photo of Brent Burns and Aleksander Barkov: Rich Storry / Imagn Images)
New York Times
06-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL playoff preview: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars
By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille It's always fun to see Stanley Cup playoff series exceed their expectations. That, somehow, is what we got from both Central Division matchups. That's saying quite a bit; when the Dallas Stars-Colorado Avalanche series began, it felt like one of the most heavily anticipated first-round series in recent memory. Elite teams. Human drama. Couldn't ask for much more, and both teams came through. The Winnipeg Jets, meanwhile, avoided disaster spectacularly behind an in-series redemption arc starring the best regular-season goalie on the planet. Tough acts to follow. We believe in them, though. The odds If odds set expectations, expect more drama in the Central. This series — between the Presidents' Trophy winners and a team many pegged as the one to beat after a massive deadline add — is about as tight as it gets. As has been common in these playoffs, where not much separates the top teams on paper, this looks close to a pick 'em. That should mean a tightly contested battle between the Jets and Stars that could go the distance. There are a lot of caveats to that analysis, more than arguably any other series in recent memory. Will Connor Hellebuyck bounce back? Has Mikko Rantanen's game returned for good after a post-trade lull? How many games will the Stars and Jets get from their currently injured star players? All questions without concrete answers (though we'll give our best guess). Those considerations make this a difficult series to peg, where a toss-up slightly shaded to the Stars feels safest. All we know is this series should be a battle. The numbers On paper, this is the closest Round 2 matchup, with just a plus-2 Net Rating separating these teams. The Jets established themselves as a defensive powerhouse this season, giving Hellebuyck more support than he has had in years. At five-on-five, Winnipeg was stingy, only giving up 2.34 xGA/60. With Hellebuyck between the pipes, the team allowed a league-low 1.72 GA/60. But a lot of that defensive zone stability slipped in Round 1. Technically, the Jets allowed a lower rate of expected goals against at 2.17 per 60, but there were more glaring slip-ups, especially on the road. Winnipeg allowed some dangerous looks off the rush and left their goaltender exposed to a lot of screened shots, which he responded to really poorly. The Stars' offense may create trouble for the Jets' back end in Round 2. Dallas' five-on-five offense was top-seven in the league in both expected and actual goal creation over the regular season. That slipped in Round 1 against the Avs, but could rebound as this group gets healthier. Defense is a potential weak point for Dallas until Heiskanen returns. That became glaring after the 4 Nations Face-Off and remained a problem in Round 1, with the team giving up 3.24 xGA/60 in seven games. The Stars' penalty kill wasn't perfect in terms of shot quality, but goaltending made up for it. The opposite was true for the Jets in Round 1; the team gave up very little but didn't always get timely saves. That's something to watch in this series, considering how high-octane the Stars' power play was against Colorado. The big question Can Connor Hellebuyck bounce back? Playoff reputations are not etched in stone. They can follow a player for years and get stickier with each new disappointment. Redemption, though, is always a possibility. Narratives can change. There is no denying that Hellebuyck, over the last three playoffs, has not been good enough. That's his narrative: He is not a big-game player, he can't handle the heat. His work against the St. Louis Blues was particularly unfathomable; it was Hellebuyck's worst series yet, with some truly unconscionable goals allowed. But the Jets are still alive. They survived one of the worst goaltending playoff performances we've ever seen, and that's a testament to the team in front of Hellebuyck. It's what's supposed to make Winnipeg different this year. It gives Hellebuyck the opportunity to change his narrative. Every new series is a chance for redemption, and no player needs it more than he does. One year removed from allowing 6.5 goals above expected in five playoff games against the Avs (or 9.1 per seven games), Hellebuyck allowed 9.8 goals above expected against the Blues — the most he has ever given up in any given seven-game sequence ever. His previous low, minus-7.6, came back in 2017. Over his last two Vezina seasons, Hellebuyck had 111 distinct seven-game sequences during the regular season. In those, Hellebuyck was below average just five times and his lowest mark is just minus-2.1 goals allowed. That's who Hellebuyck should be. Who he's been during the season and who he's been in the postseason could not be more different. What Hellebuyck offers to us is an extreme lesson in goalie volatility — and its ability to snowball to truly unbelievable places when the temperature rises. His playoff work goes well beyond general small-sample goalie wackiness. It is so extreme that it cannot be chalked up to 'stuff happens.' Stuff like this defies any ounce of logic. It should not happen. But to Hellebuyck, it has. League-best regular seasons followed up by league-worst playoffs, to these extreme degrees, is not normal. And that makes for a very tricky conundrum regarding expectations for the Jets in this series. Winnipeg's 50-50 shot against Dallas depends heavily on a Hellebuyck redemption, which does not feel like a safe bet. While the model did downgrade Winnipeg's Defensive Rating (from plus-46 to plus-39), it's clear there is a wide range of possibilities for the Jets depending on which version of Hellebuyck shows up. Hellebuyck's projected Net Rating of plus-28 is the base case, one built on regressing his last five regular seasons (with more weight on the last two), where the expectation is he saves 0.37 goals above expected per game. If he can reliably be counted on to repeat this season's 0.64 per game, Winnipeg's odds shoot up to 64 percent. If, however, Playoff Hellebuyck has another unfortunate performance and allows one goal above expected per game (his average over the last three playoffs), Winnipeg's odds would drop all the way down to 9 percent. Yes, 9 percent. More than any other team, Winnipeg's success hinges greatly on the impact of one player — a player whose current impact could not be more unpredictable and whose downside looks tremendous. That the Jets got by the Blues was miraculous. The Stars — a loaded offensive team — are a different beast. Stopping the high-flying Stars in their tracks is a great place for Hellebuyck's redemption arc to start. It's also where things can spiral further downward. It's on Hellebuyck to decide where his narrative goes next. The X-factor How will injuries shift the balance of this series? The key to winning a Central Division matchup in the opening round? Play Game 7 without one of your best forwards and No. 1 defenseman, naturally. Credit to both the Jets and Stars for pulling that off — it's no small feat. Especially given the circumstances both teams found themselves in, down by two in the third period. But pulling that off for a long stretch of time against better competition is a tall task. In this series, at least to start, the Stars and Jets are in the same boat. The point at which either team will reach shore with a healthy roster is what makes projecting it so tricky. Without firm timelines on Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey, Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, we're left guessing on that return. What we can tell you is the worst-case scenario for each team. At full health, the Jets would be favored in this series at 52 percent due to their having home ice advantage. If Dallas starts fully healthy, Winnipeg's chances would drop to 47 percent without Scheifele, 42 percent without Morrissey and 38 percent without both. That's for the whole series, which feels unlikely. The more games Scheifele and Morrissey play, the better the outlook. On the flip side, the Stars (starting at 48 percent) are at 43 percent without Robertson, 42 percent without Heiskanen and 37 percent without both. None of that is to say neither team can manage without its stars, just that the road to the conference final becomes that much more challenging. We're expecting the Stars duo back sooner, which is what gets the series to 50-50, but even that forecast is clear as mud. Whatever happens, this series is so close that whoever returns first (and closest to 100 percent) could end up being the difference. The rosters The Stars had two primary problems heading into the playoffs. The right side of the defense was a liability without Heiskanen, and Rantanen, who they brought in to be The Guy at the top of the lineup, had yet to hit his stride, which was extra concerning with Robertson injured. Rantanen came into this year with a Net Rating of at least plus-19 in each of the last three seasons. He was around a plus-17 at the time of the first trade, with an average Game Score of 1.27, but ended the year at about a plus-10. A few things contributed to that drop-off: a lack of scoring with the Canes despite promising underlying numbers, poor play-driving in Dallas and less ice time since leaving the Avs. With the Canes, his average Game Score plummeted to 0.66; in Dallas, it was 0.70. But after an up-and-down season with a lot of change and adjustments, Rantanen came to play when it mattered most and eliminated his former team in the process. After scoring a Game 7 hat trick, he ended Round 1 with five goals and 12 points and an average Game Score of 1.37, and paced at a plus-24 Net Rating. Rantanen is finally adjusting to his surroundings in Dallas and finding chemistry on an all-Finn line with Roope Hintz and Mikael Granlund. That could be a sign he is on track to return to his pre-trade caliber. If this is the Rantanen Dallas can expect going forward — the Rantanen they paid a lot for — we're probably underestimating their chances here. Rantanen, at a plus-17 Net Rating, swings the series odds four percentage points in the Stars' favor. The Stars' forward depth gives them their biggest edge in the playoff field, which helped them weather Robertson's absence. Tyler Seguin's return reunited a productive second line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene, which outscored Colorado 2-1 in Round 1. After a slow start to the playoffs, Wyatt Johnston found the scoring touch that made him stand out last spring. If he can keep that up, he should help turn around a third line with Jamie Benn, who had mixed results against the Avs. Considering some of the Jets' injury woes, the matchups may not be as daunting, either — the Stars' third line got a heavy dose of Nathan MacKinnon's line in Round 1 and had to fight through those minutes with Esa Lindell and Cody Ceci on the back end. Not only does it hurt the Stars to be without Heiskanen's two-way skill, but it also forces other defensemen out of their depth. Ceci has been tasked with playing matchup minutes, and in Round 1, the team gave up an xGA/60 of 4.0 with him and Lindell on the ice at five-on-five. Oettinger stopped the bleeding and kept their actual goal rate down to 1.75 per 60, but that may not be sustainable. Heiskanen's return will help reset the Stars' defense and give Thomas Harley more top-four support, whether they are reunited or split across two pairs. But the team has to get by until then. The Jets got reinforcements back in Round 1 with the return of Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers, but Scheifele's status is uncertain. Scheifele and Connor were dynamic together to open the series. Connor, tied with Rantanen as the league leader with 12 points, comes into this series with a plus-11 Net Rating to lead the Jets forwards. But can he keep that up against the Stars without a true 1C? Connor started Game 7 with Vladislav Namestnikov, but ended up spending most of the night with Adam Lowry, whose plus-3 Defensive Rating leads all forwards in this series. Lowry doesn't thread the needle offensively, but could help Connor win his minutes against the Stars' best. Year after year, Ehlers stands out as one of the Jets' top forwards in the regular season but wilts in a playoff environment. He proved that wasn't the case in Game 7, with a gutsy lateral pass to Connor that set up Cole Perfetti's game-tying goal. It was shaky on the way there, but at the biggest moment, Ehlers delivered. After being scratched through most of last year's postseason, Perfetti is showing he can thrive in a playoff environment. He is a shooting threat and is driving to the quality areas, which helped set up both of his Game 7 goals. With Ehlers and Namestnikov, the Jets' second line earned a 54 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 24-14 in the regular season — that's the kind of production, at minimum, this team needs to counter the Stars' middle six. As long as Lowry stays with Connor, the third line won't be as defensively sound. But if Sunday's in-game tweaks hold, Vilardi could make it more of a scoring threat. On the back end, the Jets must also prepare to play without Morrissey, whose status is uncertain. In Game 7, Dylan DeMelo spent a lot of time with shutdown defenseman Dylan Samberg, and the two were lights-out in 10:37 five-on-five minutes. The Jets attempted 15 shots, limited the Blues to two against and earned 94 percent of expected goals. But that likely leaves the team's defense too top-heavy against a deep opponent. Samberg and Neal Pionk, who take on top competition, become the de facto top pair without Morrissey. But the bottom-four configuration is tricky, considering how much the third pair already burned the Jets in Round 1. Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn were crushed in their third pair minutes against the Blues; St. Louis earned a 60 percent expected goal rate in their minutes and outscored the Jets 4-1. Haydn Fleury can help there and looked composed in Game 7, but he's no savior — the third pair is still a point of weakness that can be exploited. Against a Stars team with a loaded top nine, it gets even dicier and creates even more problems for a shaky Hellebuyck between the pipes. The key matchup Connor Hellebuyck vs. Jake Oettinger At some point last week, when Hellebuyck and the Jets were at their low point, it felt like we were getting an early referendum on Team USA's starting goaltender at the 2026 Olympics. How could you go with Hellebuyck in a high-stakes environment over Oettinger, who was in the process of adding to his (already impressive) case for No. 1? Now, thanks to his final four periods or so in Game 7, Hellebuyck has re-entered the conversation. Oettinger's reputation doesn't need that level of rebuilding, though. In his last four postseasons, he 1) had one of the best series by a goaltender in recent history, against Calgary in 2022; 2) led Dallas to consecutive conference finals in 2023 and 2024, though he was certainly better the second time around; and 3) got them out of a series in which they missed their No. 1 defenseman and All-Star winger. Oetttinger didn't allow a third-period goal against the Avs until Game 6, then shut Colorado down for the final 19:29 of Game 7, a stretch in which Dallas took the score from 2-0 to 4-2. That's big-game, resume-building stuff, and Oettinger now has the opportunity for even more of the same. The bottom line Between key injuries and Hellebuyck's playoff demons, the deck is stacked against the Jets right now. Winnipeg's star power is lacking, while the Stars are just heating up. But these teams are more than what they did in Round 1. The Central Division has been a battle all season long, and this series will likely be no different. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Photo of Jake Oettinger and Connor Hellebuyck: Matthew Stockman and Cameron Bartlett / Getty Images)
New York Times
20-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
2025 NHL playoff preview: Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens
By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille Be honest: Are you as excited about this series as you were a couple weeks ago, when Alex Ovechkin was sprinting toward Wayne Gretzky and the Montreal Canadiens were on a six-game win streak? If the answer is 'no,' that's OK. Montreal nearly backed its way into the playoffs and the Washington Capitals hit a rough patch of their own. Still, this matchup brings a whole bunch of juice — the most prolific goal scorer of all time, the East's top team and the return of postseason hockey to one of the sport's true epicenters. Advertisement Five words many Capitals fans dread: 'The Model likes the Capitals.' As wrong as it has been regarding the Capitals for many years now (and there have been a lot of wrong instances), it would've been extremely difficult not to favor the Capitals against the Canadiens. The Capitals had a fantastic season where everything went right, while the Canadiens look every bit like a wildcard team fresh off a rebuild. Washington should have no trouble dispatching Montreal here with five games being the most likely result. Of course, it's impossible not to see a mismatched series between the Capitals and Canadiens and not think about 2010. While this model did not exist 15 years ago, running it for that series produces a similar result: Washington as a 70 percent favorite. Will Washington avenge its ghosts with a dominant series win over Montreal, or will history repeat itself with another upset? With a minus-10 Net rating, the Canadiens are the weakest team in the playoff picture. The Capitals were far from perfect defensively, but their goaltending was top-notch with just 2.02 GA/60 at five-on-five. The offense was buzzing, too. The Caps' shooting percentage was high, but their 2.79 xGF/60 added some oomph below the surface. Washington's offense hasn't faded since the 4 Nations break, but there is one major difference: the goaltending. Over the last 27 games, the Capitals have allowed 3.08 GA/60 and earned a collective 0.875 save percentage. Montreal's goalies have a combined 0.921 save percentage over that same stretch of play, which went a long way in the team's push for the playoffs. There have been some improvements in front of the blue paint at five-on-five since the break, but this team still doesn't control play as well as the Capitals have this season. Advertisement The Caps come into this matchup with a special-teams edge, too. Goaltending helps equalize the penalty kill, especially down the stretch, but Washington's expected goal suppression is stronger. The Capitals' power play hasn't been as dangerous as years past, but they should have some openings in this series with Montreal's defense in mind. The Canadiens' shot quality is similar to Washington's since 4 Nations, but don't have the scoring to show for it. Can Montreal handle the heat defensively? Montreal's struggles in its own zone have been well-documented all year — even as this team pushed for a playoff seed down the stretch. Think back to the game against Detroit on April 8 when the Canadiens gave up 4.23 expected goals to one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Montreal won that game thanks to a herculean effort from Sam Montembeault, but that isn't the most sustainable strategy for long-term success. Across 82 games, Montreal gave up 2.89 xGA/60 at five-on-five, a mark that was only better than two teams: the Ducks and the Sharks. As much as this team improved since 4 Nations, defense remained an issue down the stretch. The goaltenders masked those deficiencies better out of the break with 14.3 goals saved above expected in the last 26 games, which was second only to the Jets. Diving into the penalty kill opens another can of worms, considering how much the team struggled below the surface in short-handed situations. Goaltending, again, was the difference-maker. But realistically, Montembeault can only stop the bleeding so much when facing such a demanding workload. That proved to be the case in late March, when the team allowed eight power-play goals in nine games. The problem in Montreal isn't necessarily that opponents are gaining the offensive zone with speed and generating a high rate of chances in transition. It's that this team gets pinned in its own zone for extended stretches and can't break out, especially at even strength. The defenders struggle to retrieve pucks in their own end to regain possession and make a number of mistakes in the process. The Canadiens' 13.3 botched retrievals/60, according to AllThreeZones, is the worst in the league at five-on-five. In some ways, it's a sign of a young team. But is the personnel the only problem, or is it the system? The answer is somewhere in the middle — a potential chicken and egg scenario. There are only three players on this roster with a positive Defensive Rating: Nick Suzuki, Kaiden Guhle, and Alex Carrier. Personnel is likely an issue, but it's possible that the team's hybrid defensive zone system doesn't help, making it more difficult for other players to post positive defensive results. It creates confusion, especially when players aren't decisive enough to know when to pressure the puck. Any mistakes in the decision-making process can lead to a long shift stuck in the defensive zone. Advertisement Tie the two together, and the Canadiens' struggles make even more sense. That system can be tricky for up-and-coming players who are only just learning to defend at this level. That was the case for Lane Hutson earlier this year. His xGA/60 improved from 3.12 to 2.50 after 4 Nations. Moving him away from David Savard and alongside Guhle and Jayden Struble helped, so did a growing awareness from playing more. If defense wins championships, the Canadiens may be in trouble. The Capitals have a deep offense that will challenge Montreal. But this experience, no matter what happens from here, will be a lesson on what needs to improve in the long run. Can Ivan Demidov and Ryan Leonard be immediate difference-makers? The first round is dotted with rookies who recently arrived in the NHL and figure to have a shot at impacting their teams. Ivan Demidov, the fifth pick in 2024 who played two games with Montreal after leaving the KHL, and Ryan Leonard, who finished another 30-goal season with Boston College in March, are at the top of the list. Demidov rates higher here because of the season he had with SKA St. Petersburg; 19 goals and 30 assists in 60 professional games as a 19-year-old counts for plenty. Matvei Michkov projected similarly ahead of this season and generally lived up to it, putting up 26 goals and 37 assists as a rookie for Philadelphia. Less tangibly, Montreal needed a player like Demidov. His star potential is clear. Leonard rates lower because of his nine largely uneventful games with Washington; his only point is an empty-net goal. The Caps are winning his minutes from an expected goal standpoint, though (56.7), and he's fourth on the team since April 1 with nearly 8 shots per 60 minutes. If he keeps getting third-line minutes, he'll continue to have a chance at making his mark. Against the East's other contenders, there might be more questions about Washington's roster. Against a Canadiens team that's just happy to be here, it's clear the Capitals currently have the better roster. That starts from the net out. While Logan Thompson fell off a bit before being sidelined with injury, he still proved this season that he has what it takes to be a high-end starter. Thompson finished eighth in GSAx this season saving 24.9 in 43 games. Not bad. And if he's not ready, Charlie Lindgren is a capable Plan B. One of Washington's biggest strengths is what's immediately in front of its netminders: one of the league's deepest blue lines. From 1-to-6, the Capitals don't have a single weak link. Martin Fehervary's minus-0.7 Net Rating is still No. 4 caliber — a luxury that no other playoff team has. The Capitals carry five above-average defenders, giving them three solid mix-and-match pairs without much fear of who they'll be up against. That quiet comfort starts with John Carlson, the veteran leader who had a renaissance season, scoring 51 points while posting career-best play-driving numbers. At 35, Carlson finished an impressive 12th among all defensemen in Net Rating. It goes beyond him, though, with a group that can handle any situation. Jakob Chychrun has found a forever home and adds offensive punch. Rasmus Sandin is a smooth-skating puck-mover who can hold his own in the top four. Matt Roy has added a defensive layer to the mix. And Trevor van Riemsdyk should be more well-regarded for his off-puck work. This is a really talented group, one that lands just outside the league's top five. Advertisement All of that is a huge and underrated difference from last year's playoff Capitals whose most-used defensemen included Alex Alexeyev, Dylan McIlrath and Lucas Johansen. That's allowed the forward group to play with the puck more in better situations. And it shows with some career years across the board. There are questions of sustainability, sure, but even with a best-guess estimate of true talent, the Capitals have a solid big four of top-line contributors. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson have been a shutdown force, earning 57 percent of the expected goals together. Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin have been dynamite offensively, scoring 3.8 goals per 60 together. Two budding young stars are the wildcards in that equation: Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael. Both took significant strides this season, fitting extremely well with the established veteran duos. It's Protas who's the most intriguing, a rare combination of size, speed, and skill. He's going to be a problem for years to come and it feels like these playoffs will be where he takes his game even further. Washington's depth beyond the top six doesn't have a lot of offensive upside (barring a Leonard breakout), but it makes up for that with its defensive game. Nic Dowd is one of the better defensive depth centers in the league, while Andrew Mangiapane drives play well to make up for his decreased scoring. Nick Suzuki has proven he's a two-way star and has been a monster since the 4 Nations break. While his projected Net Rating isn't high, he played like a top 15 center this year, landing just a shade above Dubois. Between Suzuki and Lane Hutson, the Canadiens have an elite one-two punch at the two most important positions — better than what the Capitals have. If they can keep their play up, they can make things interesting as the best players on the ice. Cole Caufield, fresh off a 37-goal season, can help with that, too. The rest? They're just a little too green to be impactful in their current roles. Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov are wildcards with real offensive flair. Given their age, a quick and unexpected pop is possible — it's just hard to predict it until we see it. They give the forward group optimism, but their inexperience will more than likely be a disadvantage. Advertisement It thins out really quickly after them with a real lack of offense outside of Patrik Laine's power-play ability. While that's also true of the Capitals, the Canadiens forwards don't have the defensive might to make up for it. The back end could have some juice, but three of Montreal's top four defenders mostly just grade out as one-dimensionally average. Whatever Mike Matheson adds offensively, he gives back the other way. Whatever Kaiden Guhle and Alex Carrier provide defensively, they can't create the other way. And the third pair looks easily exploitable. Montreal will one day have an elite blue line led by Hutson — though his size in a playoff atmosphere is also a question mark — but it just doesn't look like it's there yet. The ace up Montreal's sleeve is Sam Montembeault. Those who still have nightmares about Jaroslav Halak will take no solace in the knowledge that Montembeault finished third in GSAx this season with 30.8 goals saved. Over the last three seasons, only four goalies have saved more goals than Montembeault: Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, Linus Ullmark and Igor Shesterkin. He's the fourth-highest rated goalie in these playoffs for good reason. Whatever defensive deficiencies the Canadiens have — and they do have a lot of them — Montembeault covers them up well. If the team can dig in and hold their own without the puck, Montembeault can genuinely steal this series. Alex Ovechkin vs. Lane Hutson How much time the 40-year-old legend and the rookie defensemen spend on the ice together remains to be seen. They're cut from the same cloth, though, in one important way: they're not just productive players — they electrify the crowd. In the playoffs, that counts for something. In Ovechkin's case, it's not just that he set the all-time goal record. It's that he did it in style, finishing on a hot streak that was equal parts surprising and inevitable. He's spent his entire career coming up big in big spots, and he spent the last couple of months proving that he still has the juice. Hutson, like Ovechkin two decades ago, arrived in the NHL as a fully formed highlight machine. Sixty-six points as a D-man probably would've been enough to win him the Calder Trophy; the fact that he got there in style helped make him a lock. The Canadiens and Capitals got to Round 1 in very different ways. Washington revitalized its aging core and locked up a playoff seed early. Montreal's next wave clinched at the last second. But that doesn't matter — all that does is that these two teams are here and only four wins separates one from advancing. References How these projections work Understanding projection uncertainty Resources Evolving Hockey Natural Stat Trick Hockey Reference NHL All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder (Top photo of Lane Hutson and Alex Ovechkin: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
