Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds, picks and predictions
The 12th-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish (15-17) battle the fifth-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (20-12) Wednesday in the second round of the ACC Tournament. Tip-off from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's college basketball odds around the Notre Dame vs. UNC odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Notre Dame closed the regular season with back-to-back wins to finish in a 5-way tie for ninth in the ACC. The momentum carried into the ACC Tournament, where the Fighting Irish edged the 13th-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers 55-54 on Tuesday in dramatic fashion, sinking a game-winning free throw after a controversial foul call with 0.5 seconds left. The Irish covered as 4.5-point underdogs, and the game stayed well Under (135).
Notre Dame hasn't reached the ACC Tournament final since 2017 and last won the tourney in 2015. Their most recent NCAA Tournament appearance came in 2022 as a First Four team.
North Carolina's 6-game win streak was snapped in their regular-season finale against the Duke Blue Devils, losing 82-69 in Chapel Hill on Saturday. The Tar Heels, who finished tied for fourth in the ACC, couldn't cover as 10-point home underdogs as the Under (161) hit. UNC lost in last year's ACC Tournament final and hasn't won the tournament since 2016.
These teams met on Jan. 4 in South Bend, Indiana. The Tar Heels won 74-73, but Notre Dame covered as a 3.5 point home underdog as the Under (154.5) cashed.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll
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Notre Dame at UNC odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:15 P.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Off the board. FanDuel Sportsbook has Notre Dame +275 (bet $100 to win $275 | UNC -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
: Off the board. FanDuel Sportsbook has Notre Dame +275 (bet $100 to win $275 | UNC -340 (bet $340 to win $100) Against the spread (ATS) : Notre Dame +8.5 (-110) | UNC -8.5 (-110)
: Notre Dame +8.5 (-110) | UNC -8.5 (-110) Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Notre Dame at UNC picks and predictions
Prediction
UNC 78, Notre Dame 66
PASS.
UNC wins this game because frankly they need it. But I won't pay that juice on the moneyline, I'll take my wager to the spread.
BET UNC -8.5 (-110).
North Carolina's NCAA Tournament hopes are hanging by a thread, and they can't afford to slip up here. Right now, they're on the outside looking in and need to make a serious run in the ACC Tournament to have a shot at an at-large bid. Most bracket projections say they need at least 2 wins in Charlotte, but the only sure thing is winning the whole tournament.
UNC made it to the ACC title game last year but fell to NC State, the surprise team of the tournament. This time, they can't risk an early exit. Notre Dame has been playing better lately, but there's still a big talent gap between these teams.
With everything on the line, UNC won't hold back—they need wins and style points, so don't be surprised if they run up the score. Guard play is key in March, and they have one of the best leading the way in G RJ Davis. Expect the Tar Heels to come out strong and cover with ease. Take UNC to win by at least 10.
BET UNDER 149.5 (-110).
The last 3 matchups between these teams have all gone Under, including their game earlier this season, which only hit 147. Conference tournament games, especially the early ones, usually start slow as teams adjust to the neutral court and shake off nerves. That often leads to lower-scoring games. If the total was closer to 145, I'd consider the Over, but with where it's set now, the Under feels like the better play. Expect a slower-paced game and a final score that stays below the number.
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