Trump tariffs pose significant profit risk to Walmart
While the market may be in the mood to bounce higher on Tuesday after a brutal three-day stretch, Wall Street is still very much trying to assess the potential tariff impact on corporate America's bottom lines.
For retail behemoth Walmart (WMT), early calculations from Evercore ISI retail analyst Greg Melich suggest severe profit risk that investors may be overlooking.
"If 50% incremental [tariffs] on China and 20% rest of the world [tariffs] is maintained, AND no carrots of tax cuts or deregulation are implemented, we estimate the EPS pressure for Walmart of 2% could grow 3x higher," Melich warned in a note on Tuesday.
Melich estimates that Walmart imports about $105 billion worth of merchandise. That merchandise is now at risk of being slapped with Trump tariffs.
Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
President Trump uncorked a baseline tariff rate of 10% that went into effect on Apr. 5.
A higher tariff rate will start on April 9 for about 60 countries that the administration considers to be the worst trade offenders.
Some of those nations are important sourcing and business regions for large US retailers like Walmart and rival Target (TGT) and vendors in Levi's (LEVI). China, for example, will see reciprocal tariffs of 34%. Vietnam clocks in at 46%.
The reciprocal tariffs are on top of existing duties, such as the 20% Trump imposed on China earlier, bringing the total rate on the country to 54%.
China has retaliated with a 34% tariff on American goods. Trump fired back on Monday, threatening an additional 50% tariff on China if the country doesn't remove its US tariffs.
Walmart's often defensive shares have been put through the wringer — the stock has dropped 8% since Trump's tariff plan was revealed. The stock's forward price-to-earnings multiple has compressed from 36 to 31 since the start of the year, according to Yahoo Finance data.
The tariff concerns don't stop there for Walmart.
"Given that the situation is fluid and unprecedented, the impacts are uncertain," Levi's (LEVI) longtime CFO Harmit Singh said on a late Monday earnings call. "We are in the process of scenario planning and determining different mitigation strategies. We recognize this is a quickly evolving macro situation and we have to see where the dust settles to give you the guidance that is going to be as helpful to you as possible."
The wildcard now is how US consumers respond to what looks like inevitable price increases on everything from car parts to jeans. Ahead of the tariffs in March, Walmart already had called out weakening consumer sentiment amid the start of price hikes.
Walmart said it was seeing sentiment "decline" broadly across income cohorts, regions, and political affiliations.
Moreover, some competitors had raised prices on food due to tariff worries — Walmart didn't. That had resulted in wider price gaps in food compared to rivals, according to Citi analyst Paul Lejuez. A "handful" of competitors took a 15% price increase on avocados, which are largely sourced from Mexico.
The concerns on the state of the consumer have many on Wall Street saying the US will be in a recession this year.
BCA Research's veteran strategist Peter Berezin told me he sees a 75% chance of a recession within the next three months.
"Conventional estimates understate the likely impact on economic activity from the trade war and DOGE cuts. This implies that growth will slow more than expected," Berezin said on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (listen below).
Berezin didn't rule out the US currently being in a recession.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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