How long are you going to live? You could make it to 115

Times

06-05-2025

The men in my family don't live long. My father died at 69, my grandfather and great-grandfather at 67. I can't change my genes but, if I could, I'd be taking a close look at the DNA of the 115-year-old Surrey resident Ethel Caterham, the world's oldest living person. Or Colin Bell, the 104-year-old Mosquito pilot who was interviewed on TV this morning as part of the VE Day celebrations, still as sharp as a pin and with an endearing twinkle in his eye.
The UK doesn't fare well when it comes to life expectancy. Caterham may be the world-record holder but the last time we held the title was nearly 40 years ago. Indeed, based on an average life expectancy at birth, the UK is very much second tier, lying 33rd in the international league tables, just below Slovenia.
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics average life expectancy in the UK is now 78.8 years for men and 82.8 for women. However, these are estimates at birth, so if you survive into late adulthood the odds of living longer improve, with the average 65-year-old man likely to make it to at least 83 (86 for a woman). And those who reach 85 can expect to live at least another five years, with 1 in 33 and 1 in 18 women going on to celebrate a century.
Not that it's all about how long you live. Like most people, particularly doctors, I am far more interested in how I live. That is why I prefer to focus on healthy life expectancy (HLE), which reflects the number of years a person can expect to live in good health.
One person's idea of good health, or quality of life, is unlikely to be exactly the same as someone else's but, putting that aside, HLE can be an important guide to planning for the future. Not least deciding when to retire, draw your pension, downsize or take that trip of a lifetime.
Again, these are just averages so can't predict what is going to happen to you — rather they estimate what would happen to a group of 100 people like you. And here the UK doesn't fare that well either with an average HLE in England of 61.5 and 61.9 years for men and women respectively, compared to 63 and 65 in France, and 72 for both sexes in Sweden.
Perhaps more worrying is that the significant increases in life expectancy seen over the past century in the UK have stalled, and even fallen in recent years. There has been much debate as to why, but most analysts agree that while Covid, austerity and pressures on the NHS are all important factors, they are not the only ones, and there are similar downward trends in other countries too.
Social deprivation remains a key factor, as reflected in HLE estimates for different parts of England. The healthiest men in England live in London and can expect on average to have about 64 'good' years from a health perspective, seven more years than their peers living in the northeast. The healthiest women are in the southeast and have a HLE of 64.4 years, compared with 57.5 for those in the northeast.
Cancer and cardiovascular disease (stroke and heart attack) account for the majority of lost years of life with — unsurprisingly — smoking, obesity, high cholesterol and raised blood pressure all featuring as significant risk factors for an earlier-than-expected demise.
However, the data for HLE isn't quite so predictable, not least because it is self-reported, so the individual's perception of their health matters as much as black-and-white mortality statistics. Impairment due to heart and circulatory problems still feature highly but it's musculoskeletal conditions such as back pain, arthritis and osteoporosis that top the list.
I am 63 this year and I hope the good years will continue for some time. My family history may be worrying but genes are just one factor, accounting for about 15-40 per cent of variation in longevity, depending on which research you believe. Even then, the link is complicated because your genetic make-up can shorten or prolong your life for myriad reasons, ranging from predisposition to early cancers or heart disease to enhanced repair of age-related cellular damage.
I am (relatively) slim, active and lead a pretty healthy lifestyle, so I'm doing what I can and trying not to worry that, in just over six years' time, I could be the oldest Porter male for four generations. Fortunately my wife, Ros, has a more reassuring family history. Her grandmother lived to 100 and her mother is still driving at 93. I married well.
Life expectancy: what you need to know