16 becomes 12: All-Ireland SFC Round 3 permutations
Roll up, roll up for the annual permutations primer ahead of the final round of the group stage.
From next year onwards, it'll be lean times for the permutations eggheads, who are almost as upset as Kieran McGeeney that the format is changing again.
For 2026, we are set to return to what is being called a 'qualifier-style series'. Early indications are that the casual punter will have even more trouble getting their head around that one (Alan Partridge's soccer-meter springs to mind). Expect the usual queries of 'are they out now so, or what?' to skyrocket.
But that's all in the future. Confronting us this week is the final round of the All-Ireland SFC group stage, which is enjoying a swansong so glorious that many people are seeking to cry 'halt' on the latest format change.
Two of the groups are ferociously interesting this weekend, two of them less so. Here, for one last time, are the permutations.
GROUP 1
Fixtures:
Tyrone v Cavan, Brewster Park, Sunday 4pm
Donegal v Mayo, King & Moffat Hyde Park, Sunday 4pm
For the first time in the three years of the group stage - five if you want to include the Super 8s in 2018 and '19 - all four teams head into the final round of games on two points.
Every team could theoretically finish in any position by full-time on Sunday.
Donegal are currently way ahead of the rest in terms of score difference but given the GAA's prioritisation of 'head-to-head' results, this will likely prove a moot point, unless both Sunday's Group 1 games finish in draws.
On all known form, Tyrone are in the best position here, having not lost to Cavan in championship since 1983 and dispatching them with considerable ease in this year's Ulster Footbal Championship.
Cavan's shock win over a sluggish Mayo side in Castlebar was followed up by a very heavy defeat to Donegal in Kingspan Breffni Park.
The best sequence of results for Malachy O'Rourke's men is a win combined with Donegal avoiding defeat in Dr Hyde Park.
The prospect of a Tyrone win leaves Mayo needing some sort of result against the Ulster champions, otherwise Cavan will remain in the championship at their expense on the head-to-head.
The Cavan/Mayo double would see Jim McGuinness and Michael Murphy dumped out of the championship at the group stage, though both would be considered upsets.
Mayo beat Donegal at home in a similar scenario in the final round of the 2019 Super 8s. Another boon for Stephen Rochford's men is that the game is in Hyde Park, a field where they have a much better record than their own home ground.
Rundown
Tyrone win, Donegal win - Tyrone top group, Mayo eliminated
Tyrone win, Mayo win - Mayo top group, Cavan eliminated
Cavan win, Donegal win - Donegal top group, Tyrone eliminated
Cavan win, Mayo win - Cavan top group, Donegal eliminated
Tyr-Cav draw, Donegal win - Donegal top group, Mayo eliminated
Tyr-Cav draw, Mayo win - Mayo top group, Donegal eliminated
Tyrone win, Don-May draw - Tyrone top group, Cavan eliminated
Cavan win, Don-Mayo draw - Cavan top group, Tyrone eliminated
Both games end in draws - Donegal top group, Cavan eliminated (on score difference)
GROUP 2
Fixtures:
Kerry v Meath, Glenisk O'Connor Park, Saturday 4.15pm
Roscommon v Cork, Laois Hire O'Moore Park, Saturday 4.15pm
This one is less open-ended.
Kerry and Meath both know they will be progressing from the group, with only the order to be decided.
Avoiding defeat will see Kerry directly into the quarter-finals. The worst case scenario for the Munster champions is they finish second and wind up with a home preliminary quarter-final.
Meath could yet fall into third place if Roscommon beat Cork while overhauling a +14 score difference between themselves and the Leinster finalists in the process.
The Roscommon-Cork game is a shootout to remain in the championship, albeit with a draw saving the Rossies.
Roscommon's last competitive win outside of Ruislip was their 14-point annihilation of Cork in Páirc Uí Chaoimh in Round 5 of the league. Cork won the last do-or-die championship game between the pair, the 2023 preliminary quarter-final.
Rundown
Kerry win, Roscommon win - Kerry top group, Cork eliminated (second place determined by score difference - Ros currently -10, Meath +4)
Kerry win, Cork win - Kerry top group, Roscommon eliminated
Meath win, Roscommon win - Meath top group, Cork eliminated
Meath win, Cork win - Meath top group, Roscommon eliminated
Kerry-Meath draw - Kerry top group
Roscommon-Cork draw - Cork eliminated
GROUP 3
Fixtures:
Monaghan v Down, BOX-IT Athletic Grounds, Sunday 2pm
Louth v Clare, Laois Hire O'Moore Park, Sunday 2pm
The tamest group of the quartet is the most uninteresting from a permutations perspective.
It was precisely with this scenario in mind - two teams on four points, two teams on none - that the GAA controversially insisted on allowing three teams progress, with the preliminary quarter-final stage added.
Little of note to say here. The winner of the Monaghan-Down game will progress in top spot, with a draw favouring Down.
The loser of the Louth-Clare will bid goodbye to the 2025 championship, with a draw saving the Leinster champions.
Rundown
Monaghan win - Monaghan top group
Down win - Down top group
Monaghan-Down draw - Down top group
Louth win - Louth survive, Clare eliminated
Clare win - Clare survive, Louth eliminated
Louth-Clare draw - Louth survive, Clare eliminated
GROUP 4
Fixtures:
Dublin v Derry, Páirc Esler, Saturday 6.30pm
Galway v Armagh, Kingspan Breffni, Saturday 6.30pm
The big one...
The most fiendishly difficult group in the history of group stages. Not even Stephen Kenny would expect to be dealt such a rough hand as these four.
Not that Armagh need worry. Not alone are they through to the knockouts, they have already booked priority boarding to the quarter-final stage.
The All-Ireland champions can only be matched in the points tally by Dublin, against whom they already have the head-to-head advantage.
The big unknown this weekend is what tack they'll take against a Galway side in desperate need of a win in Kingspan Breffni Park.
With the result largely irrelevant to them, will they go all Serie A on us, doing an Antonio Conte in the final round of the Euro 2016 group stage and throw out the reserves? Or will they seek to maintain their momentum and try and eliminate last year's All-Ireland finalists?
Galway would probably be wise not to expect any presents anyway. Padraic Joyce's side were perilously close to tipping out of the championship with a game remaining in that wild, anarchic finale in Celtic Park. While they conceded another score on the buzzer to give up the win, any disappointment at that was easily eclipsed by their relief to still be in the thing at all.
A win in Cavan will put them through to the preliminary quarter-final, regardless. And they'll be at home if Derry can turn over the Dubs in Newry, provided Paddy Tally's don't overhaul them on score difference.
A draw or loss in Cavan and Galway are dependent on Dublin beating Derry.
The safest outcome from a Galway perspective would be hearing that Dessie Farrell's side are winning well in Páirc Esler, even if that would mean sacrificing home advantage the following week.
Dublin fans will flock to Newry knowing that any combo of results other than a Galway/Derry double will at least preserve their interest in the championship.
For Derry, a first competitive win of 2025 will guarantee their progression and leave the Dubs hanging on the result from Cavan, praying that Galway have failed to win.
Should both Galway and Derry lose, we will face the prospect of a team qualifying through the group stage on one point for the first time in the short history of the format. Galway have a slight edge in terms of score difference, currently at -1 compared to Derry's -4.
Rundown
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