Mieko Nakabayashi on 'Managing Risk, Not Fearing It'

Japan Forward

25-05-2025

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Japan faces population decline, labor shortages, geopolitical volatility, and climate threats. Political scientist and former Diet member Mieko Nakabayashi says it's time to rethink how the country approaches risk — and embrace it as a force for growth, not just a danger to avoid.
She recently supervised the publication of Risk-Smart: Crisis Management as a Career Strategy ( 危機管理の基礎と実践―リスク管理は最強のキャリア術 , Sanwa, 2025, in Japanese) , a multi-author volume exploring how Japan can better navigate uncertainty across politics, business, and society. The book brings together experts from diverse fields and encourages a mindset shift: from avoiding risk to managing it strategically.
In an exclusive interview with JAPAN Forward, the Waseda University professor expands on the book's themes, offering practical insights into the country's labor challenges, security vulnerabilities, climate risks, and the cultural shift needed to face them. In conversation with Mieko Nakabayashi (©JAPAN Forward)
"Japan is heading into an era of even steeper population decline," Nakabayashi warns. "With more elderly people and fewer young workers, we'll have to rethink who works — and how."
This includes breaking from the traditional model that assumed women would stay at home. "We can't sustain the current standard of living unless women are fully part of the workforce," she explains. "And we'll also need to rely more on skilled foreign workers."
Nakabayashi also calls for fundamental changes in corporate hiring and compensation. Japan's seniority-based, new graduate recruitment system must give way to a merit-based, skills-oriented approach. "The idea that everyone is treated equally after joining a company is outdated," she adds. "People need to keep upgrading their skills and be open to changing jobs if necessary."
Changes in the United States, particularly leadership transitions that alter trade or security policy, are also a major external risk that Japan must prepare for. "The US is not just our biggest trading partner. It's our most important security ally. We rely on it for deterrence," she says. US President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters aboard Air Force One on February 9. (©AP via Kyodo News)
Given Japan's position, surrounded by authoritarian powers like China, Russia, and North Korea, a sudden change in US posture could have profound consequences. "We can't avoid these risks," she states. "Instead, Japan needs to diversify its security and trade relationships, take more initiative, and prepare for a world where the US may not always take the lead."
Rising rice prices and aging farmers have exposed another overlooked vulnerability: Japan's food supply.
"We're seeing rice shortages now, and part of the reason may be flawed policies that restricted production," Nakabayashi says. With the average age of Japanese farmers nearing 70, she argues that simply aiming for food self-sufficiency is no longer realistic.
Instead, Japan needs to "diversify its import sources" and avoid overreliance on any one country, including the US. "Of course, ideally we'd be self-sufficient," she adds. "But unless we reform how agriculture is managed — perhaps by consolidating farmland under corporations — that won't happen anytime soon." Stockpiled rice is transported out of a storage warehouse. March 2025, Saitama Prefecture.
Nakabayashi points to climate change as another dimension of national security that already affects Japanese lives. "It's only May and we're already seeing people hospitalized for heatstroke," she says. "The summer will be worse."
Rather than follow political cues from Washington, she believes Japan should lead by example. "We should work with developing countries and share our technology, especially with those likely to emit more CO2 in the future," she says. "Our responsibility is to prevent things from getting even worse." Crystal Sound, Antarctic Peninsula, a region experiencing the direct impacts of climate change.
Turning to domestic threats, the Waseda professor highlights the rise of misinformation, especially among Japan's aging population.
"Unlike in Finland or other Nordic countries, we don't teach people how to spot fake news," she explains. "And it's older people who are especially vulnerable. They'll watch one video after another without knowing who made them or whether the claims are true."
She calls for broad-based education on media literacy, not just in schools, but through community programs and adult learning. "We need to give people the tools to question what they see. That's how we preserve freedom of speech without allowing disinformation to run wild."
These themes, from economic and demographic risk to international strategy and climate, are at the heart of Risk-Smart .
The book is structured in three parts. Historical approaches to risk in Japan are the focus of the first. In the second, academic perspectives and theory are laid out. And the third presents practical risk management solutions, drawing on essays from consultants, executives, and subject-matter experts. "I wanted to provide a 360-degree view — practical, historical, and strategic," she says.
"The response has been especially strong from professionals — CEOs, risk consultants, leaders in both the private and public sectors," she notes. "But I want young people to read it too. Japan's future depends on their ability to adapt."
Asked about Japan's so-called "zero-risk culture," Nakabayashi doesn't mince words: "Avoiding risk entirely is no longer possible."
She emphasizes that risk isn't inherently bad. It's often a doorway to opportunity. "What we need now is a shift in mindset. Instead of asking how to eliminate risk, we should ask how to manage it, and sometimes even turn it into a chance for innovation."
Her hope is that readers, especially the next generation, will come away with a new way of thinking: that risk is not something to be feared or ignored, but understood, anticipated, and used creatively.
"Change is coming," Nakabayashi concludes. "And Japan can't afford to keep looking for perfect safety. We need to face the world as it is — complex, unstable, full of challenges — and prepare ourselves not to avoid risk, but to navigate it."
Author: Daniel Manning
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