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CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Stronger showing of Southeast Asian leaders expected at China's Sep 3 WWII parade. Why so?
BEIJING: Armoured columns. Aerial flyovers. Troop march-pasts. But as China gears up for a grand military parade on Sep 3 to mark 80 years since the end of World War II, analysts say the audience may speak louder than the display, especially with Southeast Asian leaders expected to turn up in force. Top leaders from Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are among several Southeast Asian states set to attend, according to reports, marking a first time three of Southeast Asia's largest economies will be simultaneously represented at the highest levels at a People's Liberation Army-led (PLA) parade on Tiananmen Square. Leaders from Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar are likewise expected to appear after first attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin just days earlier, the South China Morning Post reported. For China, the sight of regional leaders attending the parade signals solidarity and legitimacy. For Southeast Asian economies, it offers a chance to court Chinese trade and investment without paying too heavy a political price at home, analysts say. 'Participation signals goodwill toward China, with the intention to promote regional stability, but risks only minor repercussions from pro-democracy, human rights and nationalist opposition parties, or wary public opinion concerned about sovereignty and militarisation,' Jonathan Ping, an associate professor at Bond University, told CNA. Observers note that the turnout reflects more than wartime remembrance. For China, the anniversary is a dual showcase - flexing military might at home while projecting diplomatic reach across Asia and beyond. They add that Beijing is keen to prove its convening power, rallying regional and international partners even as ties with the West fray and the United States under President Donald Trump unsettles the global order. SOUTHEAST ASIA'S PARADE PRESENCE The upcoming Victory Day parade will be China's second full-scale procession since 2015 to mark Japan's formal surrender in September 1945. Domestically, World War II is officially known as the 'Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War'. Staged in the heart of Beijing, the event will bring together tens of thousands of participants and showcase China's latest military hardware. President Xi Jinping will survey the spectacle at Tiananmen Square as foreign leaders and dignitaries look on, their presence scrutinised as closely as the firepower on display. Authorities have said that invitations to foreign leaders would be extended, but have yet to disclose a formal guest list. At a routine press briefing on Wednesday (Aug 20), Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said 'information will be released in due time'. Still, media reports point to a stronger Southeast Asian turnout than in 2015. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim are likely to attend the parade, SCMP reported on Aug 15, citing multiple sources. Vietnam is also expected to send its president, Luong Cuong, according to the report. In comparison, Southeast Asian attendance at the 2015 parade was marked by the heads of state from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, while Thailand was represented by then-Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan. Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia sent special envoys, including former officials or cabinet representatives. Brunei did not feature on published lists of high-level attendees. Amid strained ties over territorial disputes, the Philippines did not send a formal representative - instead, former President Joseph Estrada, then serving as Manila's mayor, attended the parade in a personal capacity, citing the sister‑city ties between Manila and Beijing For Beijing, the sight of Southeast Asian leaders attending the parade is meant to underscore solidarity and show that China's neighbours are prepared to be seen alongside its military, said Bond University's Ping. 'Inviting ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) leaders underscores Beijing's ambition for diplomatic alignment and regional stability under its leadership, while the military display reinforces its expanding interests and offensive posture,' he said. Analysts see two main factors driving stronger Southeast Asian representation at the upcoming parade. For one, the political cost of attending is relatively low. In 2015, analysts noted a higher political cost for Southeast Asian leaders to be seen at a PLA-led showcase. It was China's first full-scale Victory Day parade, held amid active island building and land reclamation in the disputed South China Sea alongside the then-pending arbitration case brought by the Philippines. As Western leaders mostly stayed away, most ASEAN states opted for lower-level representation to avoid the perception of endorsing China's military posture while disputes simmered, analysts said. This year, the optics are still weighty - the Sino-US rivalry is sharper and the PLA faces heightened scrutiny - but analysts say the commemorative framing of the Sep 3 event makes it a less politically sensitive choice for Southeast Asian leaders. Unlike in 2015, when tensions in the South China Sea were relatively higher and the optics of marching alongside Chinese troops risked being read as tacit alignment with Beijing's military posture, today's climate carries relatively lower risk of such perceptions, noted analysts. 'Attendance at PLA-centred commemorations is a diplomatic benefit with lesser domestic sensitivities,' noted Ping, who's also the director of Bond University's East Asia Security Centre as well as editor of the Journal of East Asia Security. But the calculus is double-edged, said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington DC. Leaders want to nurture ties with China, yet they must also consider long-standing ties with Japan, he told CNA. Japan figures prominently in this equation because Beijing's Victory Day parade is framed around its defeat in World War II - placing regional leaders in the delicate position of honouring China's wartime narrative without straining present-day ties with Tokyo. 'Japan has been a long trusted partner, and is a key foreign investor and trading partner of every country in the region,' Abuza said, pointing out that Southeast Asia has broadly welcomed Tokyo's expanded security role and defence cooperation. In 2023, ASEAN-Japan trade amounted to US$241 billion, about 7 per cent of the bloc's merchandise trade, while Japanese investment of US$14.5 billion placed it among ASEAN's top foreign investors. On the security front, Tokyo has also deepened defence ties - most notably through a Reciprocal Access Agreement with the Philippines signed in mid-2024, and its Official Security Assistance programme, which supplies patrol boats and coastal radars to partners, the majority of them in Southeast Asia. Still, China's economic pull is hard to ignore, particularly as it cements its role as a vital trade and investment partner for Southeast Asian economies navigating uneven post-pandemic recoveries and the bite of US tariffs. 'At a time when exports to the United States will slow due to tariffs, and the International Monetary Fund has downgraded GDP growth in every country in the region, the leaders will be looking to China for more trade and investment,' Abuza said. Since overtaking the European Union in 2020, ASEAN has remained China's largest trading partner. In 2024, bilateral trade reached US$962.98 billion, accounting for 15.9 per cent of China's total foreign trade, according to official data. At the same time, China is the largest trading partner for most ASEAN countries, reflecting deep supply chain linkages and growing economic interdependence across the region. 'While leaders may come for the pomp and circumstance of the parade, it's the sidebar meetings and one-on-ones with Xi and his team that are the most important,' Abuza said. In other words, the parade is less about symbolism and more about access, say observers. 'The parade serves as a gateway,' said Ping from Bond University. 'Attendees obtain short-term diplomatic access, including bilateral meetings, promises of investment, and potential defence cooperation - but most importantly, networking for the future.' At the same time, sustained engagement beyond 'symbolic participation' is required to build outcomes, Ping said. INDIA'S WILDCARD AND EUROPE'S OUTLIERS While the guest list has yet to be disclosed, it is already clear that China's Sep 3 parade will draw leaders from well beyond its neighbourhood. Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed his attendance, while several European leaders, including those from Serbia and Slovakia, have also signalled plans to attend. For the 2015 parade, Chinese officials said representatives of 49 countries and 30 foreign leaders attended. This included Putin, then-South Korean President Park Geun-hye, various Central Asian leaders and then-United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon. But it is the possible presence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that would draw the most scrutiny, given the pivotal yet strained state of China-India relations, analysts say. Ties between Beijing and New Delhi remain uneasy after a deadly border clash in 2020, though both sides have recently signalled interest in stabilising relations, agreeing to resume direct flights and expand trade and investment. Against this backdrop, the SCO summit in Tianjin - held between Aug 31 and Sep 1, just days before the parade - is set to draw particular attention. Modi has confirmed his attendance, marking his first trip to China in seven years. Yet whether he will stay on for the military parade is far from certain, analysts note. While Modi's SCO attendance is confirmed, the prospect of him attending the Victory Day parade is 'unlikely', Aparna Divya, a PhD candidate at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University, told CNA, noting that New Delhi has not issued any official schedule regarding parade participation. She added that appearing at the parade would carry much heavier weight, as being seen at a PLA-centred commemoration is far more sensitive than attending a regional summit. Modi was not present at China's 2015 Victory Day parade, with India instead represented by then-Minister of State for External Affairs VK Singh. Still, the speculation underscores the high stakes attached to Modi's possible presence at the upcoming parade. Divya said his parade attendance would signal 'a culmination of robust diplomatic engagements' between Beijing and New Delhi over the past year, while his absence would reflect the enduring caution that continues to shape India's calculus toward China. With Modi's visit to China raising expectations of a meeting with Xi, Divya said one aspect to watch closely is what practical gains, if any, emerge. Recent discussions between the two sides have touched on de-escalation along the contested border, easing trade restrictions on rare earths, cooperation on hydrological data linked to China's construction of a mega dam in Tibet and India's push for stronger consensus on cross-border terrorism. Any breakthroughs in these areas - through bilateral talks around Modi's visit - would help determine whether ties are merely stabilising or inching toward a substantive reset, Divya said. At the same time, China is also casting its gaze further west, with Serbia and Slovakia among the expected European attendees - a presence analysts say is not accidental. Both states are seeking economic opportunities through China's Belt and Road Initiative, said Bond University's Ping. He noted that Serbia has already reaped significant Chinese investment, while Slovakia's attendance 'is more significant, given it has been less engaging' towards China. The possible inclusion of Serbia and Slovakia is 'diplomatically very calculated', said Abuza from the National War College. 'Serbia is a country that has been traditionally close to Russia, and fought against the United States and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) … Slovakia is a NATO member, but whose government is currently more aligned with Moscow, vis a vis Kiev and its allies in Brussels,' he said. The mix of Southeast Asian partners, Russia's Putin and select European outliers gives the parade a carefully curated symbolism, analysts say. It projects Beijing's claim that it can still marshal international support across political systems and historical fault lines - a deliberate contrast, observers say, to the likely no-shows from Western capitals as tensions with them deepen. AMPLIFYING ITS CONVENING POWER The near back-to-back timing of the SCO summit and the Sep 3 military parade is no coincidence, but a calculated bid by Beijing to amplify its convening power, analysts suggest. They add that the dual events also create two layers of engagement - the SCO summit for substantive security and economic coordination, and the parade for symbolic alignment. Some states may attend just the SCO while giving the parade a miss, noted Ping from Bond University. 'Participation in formal frameworks like the SCO reflects strategic engagement on security and economic issues, while skipping ceremonial events avoids domestic backlash or perceptions of endorsing China's military posture,' he said. But the sequencing ensures that even leaders who would not normally travel solely for a parade may still be in China. 'It maximises diplomatic momentum, blending multilateral cooperation with great power military capacity,' Ping said. 'The dual staging reinforces China's leadership role; it has enormous diplomatic capacity well beyond almost all other states.' Analysts say the overlap of attendees across both events will be telling, offering a glimpse into how some governments are already within China's orbit, particularly through security and political cooperation, making them less constrained by the domestic sensitivities that deter other Southeast Asian leaders. So far, the leaders of Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are reportedly expected at both gatherings. 'These authoritarian regimes are already very much tied to China's security architecture,' said Abuza from the National War College. The three nations are all dialogue partners of the SCO, the grouping founded in 2001. Unlike the nine full members such as China, Russia, India and Pakistan, being a dialogue partner carries fewer obligations. China likes to use the SCO, which the US is not part of, as 'the centrepiece of an alternative world order led by Beijing', Abuza said. As for the Sep 3 parade, analysts say Beijing's objectives extend beyond the guest list to the messages it wants to project. One is to showcase its rising military might, using the PLA's display of modern hardware and formations to underscore both technological progress and strategic resolve. At a press conference on Aug 20, military officials highlighted that the display will include "never-before-seen" weaponry, covering hypersonic precision-strike missiles, anti-ship systems, drone-interception gear, and unmanned platforms. China's military showcases are often scrutinised as a barometer of its growing prowess, with observers already poring over recent rehearsals to decode signals of technological progress and strategic intent. At the same time, analysts say Beijing's other goal is to assert a carefully curated historical narrative. The parade is to commemorate the victory over Japan, and by foregrounding its wartime role, Beijing is tying its current posture to a story of resistance and victory, said Abuza from the National War College. This framing, analysts note, helps China legitimise its leadership claims today and draw contrasts with the US as the global order shifts. 'Through the parade … Beijing wants to convey that it is maintaining the international order at a time when the US is upending it, and that it has broad international support when America is isolating itself,' said Abuza. 'China wants to show that, in fact, Southeast Asian states are starting to choose.' Other analysts agree that Beijing is using memory politics to reinforce its present ambitions. Ping from Bond University said the parade not only accentuates regional wartime solidarity but also signals 'China's intent to deepen regional involvement, to counterbalance the US in trade, geopolitical authority, and governance model'. Divya from Fudan University said Beijing is also framing the commemoration as a signal that it 'upholds peace and will firmly defend international fairness and justice'.
CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Commentary: Trump says ceasefires don't matter – oh yes, they do
LONDON: Sat beside his Ukrainian counterpart in the White House this week, United States President Donald Trump explained why he'd dropped the idea of trying to pressure Russia into a ceasefire: They're nice to have, but not necessary, he said – just look at the six wars he'd already ended, none of which involved a preliminary truce. There are a lot of claims packed in here, so let's break them down. It's true that not all peace agreements are preceded by truces – but a lot are. One study has counted 2,202 ceasefires that quieted conflicts around the globe between 1989 and 2020. Trump was also right about truces being used not just to help bring an end to the fighting but to actually advance war-fighting strategies. What ceasefires most certainly aren't, however, is just 'nice to have'. Nor are the six conflicts that Trump claims to have ended any kind of dataset to make that point. THE SIX WARS DONALD TRUMP CLAIMS TO HAVE ENDED Trump claims to have ended wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Cambodia and Thailand, India and Pakistan, Ethiopia and Egypt, Iran and Israel, and Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia and Egypt can be ignored. Those two countries weren't at war and the dispute over a dam on the Nile that Trump is referring to remains unresolved. India, meanwhile, says the US wasn't a party to ending in May the latest of many clashes it's had with Pakistan since their 1947 partition. If it was, then the deal that emerged was a ceasefire, agreed in a hotline phone call between the two nations' military chiefs, not a peace settlement. Trump himself called it a 'FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE' when claiming responsibility. The White House can legitimately take credit for using the threat of a trade war to cajole Thailand and Cambodia to the negotiating table, after a long-running border dispute erupted into armed conflict in July. But again, this was a ceasefire. And it led to Malaysia brokering a 13-point settlement the following month. So, a counter to Trump's argument. The Armenia-Azerbaijan deal is interesting, but again a poor Exhibit A. The deal became possible, and US involvement was invited, because both countries are currently on the outs with Moscow. As Thomas de Waal, a Caucasus expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told me, Baku and Yerevan especially wanted to free themselves of a clause in their still-operative 2020 ceasefire deal. This had been brokered by Moscow and gave Russia's Federal Security Service (the former KGB) control over a corridor that passes through Armenian territory, linking Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhichevan. The joint statement that the two nations signed in Washington earlier this month replaced that ceasefire with a final settlement. It also substituted the US for Russia as the corridor's guarantor. But in terms of Trump's claims on ending wars, the fighting had stopped in 2023. By the time this US president got involved, there was no fire to cease. As for Iran-Israel, Trump's Jun 22 decision to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities clearly helped to dissuade Tehran from continuing its missile exchanges with Israel, but as Yahya Rahim Safavi, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general and adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said to Iranian media on Aug 17, there isn't necessarily a peace. 'We are not in a ceasefire, we are in a stage of war. No protocol, regulation or agreement has been written between us and the US or Israel,' he said. 'I think another war may happen.' The deal Trump brokered between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in June is probably closest to the US president's model. The result, however, still doesn't support his 'nice to have' view on ceasefires. The fighting – much of it conducted by militias and proxies – continues unabated, even after the settlement. The Rwanda-backed M23 group executed 140 DRC civilians in July, part of a monthly total of 300 killed. Despite the Trump-brokered settlement, that made July M23's most murderous month since 2021, according to Human Rights Watch. A CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE WOULD MATTER Ceasefires can be important for multiple reasons, with their potential to stop the killing and facilitate aid flows topping the list. That's especially true for conflicts such as Gaza, DRC and Ukraine, where the toll on civilians is unacceptably high. A close second is that agreement to a truce can indicate whether one or both sides are even interested in ending the war, or if the reason they began fighting remains as compelling to them as ever. Until about a year ago, for example, Ukrainians were opposed to any ceasefire. Their country had been invaded, and they'd had considerable success in taking back territory that Russian forces initially seized. They thought they could get back more, and the evidence of rape, torture, child abductions and murder they found in liberated towns convinced them this was also a moral duty. A ceasefire would, by contrast, lock in Russia's occupation, together with its horrors. Even today, a look at the conflict maps produced by Washington's Institute for the Study of War show that Ukraine has retaken about as much land as it lost since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full invasion on Feb 24, 2022. But hopes of reclaiming any more have faded. Most Ukrainians now say when polled that they want a ceasefire, even if that means accepting loss of control over occupied territory. It's Putin who is resisting any truce, because his forces are making daily gains and he thinks he can get more. This is why Trump's bilateral summit in Alaska was a strategic disaster for Ukraine and its allies. For the result was that the US has now abandoned the threat of sanctions and other forms of pressure to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire. This has left him with no reason to stop, let alone end, his invasion, unless it's as part of a strategy to secure through diplomacy the territories and other war aims he has been unable to win on the battlefield. So, yes, a ceasefire in Ukraine would matter, enormously.
CNA
3 hours ago
- CNA
Netanyahu says Israel to begin Gaza ceasefire negotiations, release hostages
PALESTINIAN PROTESTS OVER CONDITIONS IN GAZA Once the temporary ceasefire begins, the proposal is for Hamas and Israel to begin negotiations on a permanent ceasefire that would include the return of the remaining hostages. Palestinians staged a rare show of protest against the war on Thursday, in a growing sign of despair at the conditions in Gaza. Carrying banners reading "Save Gaza, enough" and "Gaza is dying by the killing, hunger and oppression," hundreds of people rallied in Gaza City in a march organised by several civil unions. "This is for a clear message: words are finished, and the time has come for action to stop the military operations, to stop the genocide against our people and to stop the massacres taking place daily," said Palestinian journalist Tawfik Abu Jarad during the protest. The Gaza health ministry said at least 70 people had been killed in Israeli fire in the enclave in the past 24 hours, including eight people in a house in the Sabra suburb in Gaza City. A statement from the Palestinian Fatah movement said one of those killed in Sabra was a Fatah leader and former militant, along with seven members of his family. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. CEASEFIRE OR CAPTURE OF GAZA CITY? Israeli officials are indicating that there is time for a ceasefire to be reached, even though its military begins its preparations to launch the assault on Gaza City, Some Palestinian families in Gaza City have left for shelters along the coast, while others have moved to central and southern parts of the enclave, according to residents there. "We are facing a bitter, bitter situation: to die at home or leave and die somewhere else. As long as this war continues, survival is uncertain," said Rabah Abu Elias, 67, a father of seven. "In the news, they speak about a possible truce, on the ground, we only hear explosions and see deaths. To leave Gaza City or not isn't an easy decision to make," he told Reuters by phone. On Thursday, Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee wrote on X that the military had started making what he said were initial warning calls to medical and international organisations operating in Gaza's north, telling them that Gaza City residents should start to prepare to move out of the city and towards the south. Adraee shared a recording of what he said was an Israeli officer telling a Gazan health ministry official that hospitals in southern Gaza should also prepare to receive patients from medical facilities in the north, who will be forced to evacuate. A Gaza health ministry official confirmed the phone call had taken place. The ministry rejected the Israeli request to shift medical resources south, warning it would cripple the already devastated health system and endanger over a million residents. It urged international bodies to intervene and protect lifesaving care. Two more people have died of starvation and malnutrition in Gaza in the past 24 hours, the ministry said on Thursday. The new deaths raised the number of Palestinians who have died from such causes to 271, including 112 children, since the war began.
