Canadian election view and impact on the North Country defined

Yahoo

02-05-2025

PLATTSBURGH — Monday's national election in Canada left the region with lots to mull in terms of how it played out and how it will affect the North Country and the rest of the nation.
Longtime Political Science Professor at SUNY Plattsburgh Dr. Harvey Schantz, analyzed the election on Tuesday, a day after Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney appeared to have won a somewhat surprising victory over Conservative Party challenger Pierre Poilievre.
Here is what Schantz said:
Indirect Election
Selection of the Canadian Prime Minister is an indirect election in which voters elect members of parliament and then legislators vote for their party leader to be the Prime Minister. With a Parliament of 343 seats, a majority of 172 seats is the minimum necessary to elect a government.
CBC television news called the election for the Liberal Party at 10:11 PM Monday, remarking that the outcome marks a fourth straight 'mandate' for the Liberal Party. However, it is still not yet clear whether the Liberal Party will form a majority government or a minority government in alliance with another political party.
The election results are generally viewed as a unique reversal of political fortunes, with the Conservative Party slipping badly and the Liberal Party snatching victory from almost certain defeat. In the last weeks of the campaign, though, polls began to show a decline in the Liberal Party lead.
The Liberal Party victory, according to analysts, resulted from the replacement of Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney as their party leader and Carney's campaign focus on President Donald Trump, who inserted himself into the campaign by calling for Canada to be the 51st state and initiating Canadian tariffs.
Carney made standing up to Trump the most important issue in his campaign and this issue emphasis is believed redounded to his benefit. By contrast, the Conservative candidate Poilievre had hoped that after an extended period of Liberal Party dominance, the contest would be a time for a change election.
Americans' Views
A total of 60% of U.S. adults, according to an April 7, Yougov poll, reported that the Canadian election was either 'very important' or 'somewhat important' to them. Americans' views of the Canadian election were incorporated into their prior political ideologies and attitude towards President Donald Trump.
When asked for whom they would vote for in the Canadian election, Democrats said 39% for the Liberal Party of strongly anti-Trump candidate Carney and only 4% of their votes for Conservative Party candidate Poilievre. On the other hand, Republicans would vote 48% for the Conservative Party and only 5% for the Liberal Party.
Americans are concerned with Trump's actions towards Canada. According to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos Poll, released after April 22, 53% of American adults agree that 'Trump is serious…when he talks about the U.S. trying to take control of Canada.' Fully 75% of Democrats take Trump's threat seriously as compared to only 35% of Republicans and 49% of independents.
In our region, the Northeast, 57%, the highest of any region, feel that Trump is serious about taking over Canada. Only 13% of American adults 'would support' U.S. efforts to take control of Canada, including 27% of Republicans, 9% of Independents, and only 4% of Democrats. In the Northeast, 13% would support such a move.
Canadian Views
Canadians have a jaundiced view of their relationship with the U.S., according to a Yougov poll released shortly after April 2, with 44% calling it 'unfriendly' and 20% calling the U.S. an 'enemy.'
By contrast only one-quarter of Canadians characterized their relationship with the U.S. in positive terms, with 15% calling the U.S. an ally and 10% calling the relationship 'friendly.' Only 19% of Liberals used ally or friendly to characterize the U.S. relationship, as compared to 39% of Conservatives who did so.
Fully 71% of Canadians agreed that 'diversifying trade partners' would be an effective response to U.S. tariffs, with supporters of both major parties agreeing over 70 percent. Other measures viewed as effective by 64 to 65 percent of Canadians included 'stop selling US liquor,' 'stop selling oil,' 'stop selling electricity,' and 'retaliatory tariffs.'
Liberals averaged 73% support for these four measures, while Conservatives averaged 60.5% support for these retaliatory moves against the United States.
Impact on U.S. Relations and Region
'As I've been warning for months,' Carney said in his victory speech.
'America wants our land, our resources, our country. Never. These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us, so that America can own us. That will never happen.'
Carney repeated his earlier claims that the old Canadian relationship with the United States characterized by close economic integration is over.
'We have to look out for ourselves.'
Carney's victory speech pointed to tough economic negotiations between Canada and the United States, an assertion of full Canadian sovereignty over their territory, and diversification of Canadian economic markets, with less reliance on the United States.
Already the leaders of Australia, France, and Ukraine, as well as China and India, reports the Washington Post have expressed interest in strengthening economic ties with Canada.
Trump's actions have led to a backlash among Canadians toward the United States, both in their attitudes and economic behavior as 61% of Canadians claimed to 'have already started any form of boycotting American companies,' including 78% who claim to have boycotted 'food grown in the U.S.,' and 65% 'alcohol distilled in the U.S.,' as reported by the Yougov poll of Canadians.
In northern New York and nationally, there has been a reported drop in Canadian tourism as well.
The election results suggest that our local economic and political leaders will have, at least for the time being, a more difficult time stimulating the cross-border economy.