China weaning itself off US soybeans as decade-long outlook could hit American farmers
China is poised to grow more soybeans and improve the crop's yield over the coming decade amid an accelerated self-sufficiency drive, and the nation's more abundant domestic harvests are expected to hit American exporters and farmers who have long relied on China's business.
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While the nation of 1.4 billion people will continue seeing a 'tight balance' between the supply and demand of food, agricultural authorities say China's reliance on imports is set to decrease as it prioritises domestic production of soybeans, which represent the bulk of its agricultural imports.
Overall grain production in the country is projected to increase to 753 million tonnes by 2034 from last year's 706.5 million tonnes, with a 38 per cent improvement in per-unit soybean yield, according to the 2025-34 China Agricultural Outlook Report released on Sunday by an expert committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Soybean trade is among the most contentious battlefields in the US-China tariff war, as the oilseed remains the top American agricultural export to China despite its diversification efforts in recent years.
With accelerating farming technologies and breeding new varieties, China's overall per-unit grain yield is projected to increase 7.8 per cent by 2034, and the average annual soybean yield is estimated to grow from 2,001kg per hectare last year to 2,775kg per hectare, according to the report. A hectare equals 2.47 acres.
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The country is also expected to prioritise soybean production in terms of its growing structure, with sown area maintaining an upwards trend, and the rice and corn areas decreasing, the report said.
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