White House adviser says trade talks continuing with EU, Canada, Mexico
Asked about his expectations of talks with the EU, the White House National Economic Council director said: "We'll see ... we've got a few weeks left."
(Reporting by Susan Heavey; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
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The National
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US President Donald Trump will make a push for his vision on powering increasingly energy-hungry artificial intelligence infrastructure during the first Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit on Tuesday. The event, spearheaded by Republican US Senator Dave McCormick, is taking place in Pittsburgh at Carnegie Mellon University. 'This summit is about catalysing $90 billion of investment and tens of thousands of jobs in Pennsylvania,' Mr McCormick said in his opening remarks. He also referenced the increasingly adversarial relationship between the US and China as he set the stage for the day's agenda. 'If we don't lead this AI revolution on our own terms, we will hand control of our infrastructure, data, leadership and way of life to the Chinese Communist Party,' he said. With AI continuing to expand into all aspects of life, the burden it places on the US energy grid is becoming more of an issue, as policymakers try to keep America in the lead amid a global race for AI dominance. According to a report from the US Energy Department, data centres consumed about 4.4 per cent of total electricity in the country in 2024. By 2028, that share could increase to 12 per cent. By most estimates, a simple query to ChatGPT uses 10 times more energy than a similar search on Google. The event has featured several panels and discussions on energy and AI, including how to best meet the energy needs created by the technology, and looking at the potential efficiencies that AI would create in the years ahead. There were also discussions about the need for data centres to keep up with the AI investment boom and increased user demand. During the opening panel discussion, alternative asset management firm Blackstone made a $25 billion investment in building data centres in Pennsylvania. Investors, entrepreneurs and business leaders from around the world are attending the event. Khaldoon Al Mubarak, Mubadala's managing director and chief executive and chairman of the UAE Executive Affairs Authority, made the trip to Pittsburgh. Lim Chow Kiat, chief executive of Singapore's GIC, was also invited. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright were among the White House officials in attendance. Alex Karp, chief executive of AI firm Palantir, Joseph Dominguez, Constellation Energy chief and Jake Loosararian, founder of Gecko Robotics, also took part. Mr Trump is scheduled to participate in a round-table discussion about AI later in the day. As proof of how bipartisan AI and energy issues have become, Pennsylvania's Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, a staunch critic of Mr Trump and a potential contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential race, is scheduled to be in attendance. When it comes to coal, fracking and even nuclear power, Mr Shapiro's state has become ground zero for the US energy renaissance. A few weeks ago, Mr Shapiro attended a nuclear energy rally to celebrate a partnership with Microsoft at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in the state, which will soon reopen under a different name. Nuclear energy is seen by many supporters of AI as a way to bolster the energy grid as use of the technology expands. Despite its bipartisan nature, critics fear the content of the event will take a back seat to politics. A day before the event, Carnegie Mellon University's president acknowledged the politically charged backdrop against which the conference was taking place. 'I recognise that CMU's decision to host the summit has prompted concern and disagreement among some members of our community,' Farnam Jahanian said, pointing out his own disagreements with Mr Trump on a number of issues concerning education funding. 'At the same time, I firmly believe that higher education must be a convener – a catalyst for ideas and partnerships that shape our future.' On Tuesday, he spoke about why he felt CMU, with its roots in technology, was the perfect host for the summit, describing it as a 'defining moment for our country and humanity' and referring to AI as 'the most important intellectual development of our time'.
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Will gold's bull run continue after 26% surge in first half?
Gold surged 26 per cent in the first half of 2025, outperforming all major asset classes and recording 26 new all-time highs in dollar terms. Fuelled by a weaker dollar, stable interest rates, and intensifying geopolitical tensions, the precious metal reaffirmed its status as a safe-haven asset amid rising global uncertainty. According to the World Gold Council's mid-year outlook, gold's rally in the first half was supported by an exceptional mix of macroeconomic conditions: softening US Treasury yields, expectations of monetary easing, and the worst start for the US dollar since 1973. In tandem, investors sought refuge in gold as trade frictions, inflationary pressures, and global market volatility persisted. Global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a sharp resurgence, with total holdings rising by 397 tonnes — equivalent to $38 billion — bringing total assets under management to $383 billion, a 41 per cent increase. Average daily gold trading volumes also hit a record $329 billion, reflecting robust participation from institutional and retail investors across over-the-counter (OTC), futures, and ETF markets. Central banks continued their strategic gold purchases, albeit below the record-setting levels of 2022 and 2023. Their sustained accumulation — a hedge against currency volatility and economic instability — reflects a broader shift away from dollar-dominated reserves. The WGC's Gold Return Attribution Model has identified three primary drivers behind the first-half rally: First, opportunity cost (7 per cent of gold's return): Gold became more attractive relative to the weakening dollar and subdued bond yields, which offered little incentive to hold fixed-income assets. Second, risk and uncertainty (4 per cent): Rising geopolitical tensions — particularly around US-China relations and tariff threats — as well as broader economic fragility drove safe-haven flows. Third, momentum (5 per cent): Positive ETF inflows and trading activity created a feedback loop, amplifying gold's upward trajectory. The WGC analysts, looking to the second half of 2025, predicts that the gold market faces a pivotal juncture. Under current consensus expectations, gold is likely to remain rangebound, with potential upside of 0 to 5 per cent, which would translate into a full-year return of 25 to 30 per cent. 'Gold appears to have priced in much of the current macro landscape,' the report notes. 'But the path ahead depends heavily on how economic conditions evolve, particularly in the face of persistent inflation and trade-related uncertainties.' Inflation is expected to pick up in H2 due to global tariff increases, with US CPI forecast to reach 2.9 per cent. Central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve, are anticipated to begin a cautious easing cycle in the final quarter, with a 50-basis-point rate cut priced in. These factors could help sustain investor interest in gold. However, rising prices may weigh on consumer demand and spur more recycling, potentially capping further upside. While institutional and central bank appetite is likely to stay firm, ETF and futures positions are not yet overstretched — suggesting room for renewed buying should risk sentiment sour. WGC's bullish case envisions deteriorating economic and financial conditions, such as stagflation or a full-blown recession. In this scenario, gold could rise another 10 to 15 per cent in the second half, ending the year nearly 40 per cent higher. 'Such an environment would likely spur further flight-to-safety flows, higher ETF inflows, and accelerated central bank diversification away from the US dollar,' the report says. Gold ETFs, for instance, have accumulated just over 500 tonnes in the past year — significantly below the 700 to 1,100 tonnes amassed during past bull cycles. COMEX net long positions remain below historical peaks, reinforcing the notion that the market is not yet overbought. Conversely, a more optimistic geopolitical and economic outcome — though seen as less probable — could pressure gold. A resolution of key trade disputes, stronger global growth, and rising yields would curb demand for safe-haven assets. Under this scenario, gold could give back 12 to 17 per cent of its H1 gains, ending the year with modest single-digit returns. Higher Treasury yields and a rebounding dollar would elevate the opportunity cost of holding gold, triggering ETF outflows and reducing central bank buying. Still, any downside may be cushioned by renewed consumer interest at lower prices and a pullback in recycling. Yellow metal analysts argue that as the global macro and geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, gold remains uniquely positioned to serve as both a tactical and strategic asset. Its strong first-half showing underscores investor demand for portfolio protection and diversification amid heightened uncertainty. Ultimately, they contend that as central banks adjust policies and geopolitical dynamics unfold, gold's fundamentals — supported by broad institutional interest, resilient central bank demand, and constrained supply — remain solid. Whether consolidating or surging anew, gold continues to prove its worth in a rapidly shifting global order, they noted. While consensus forecasts suggest a stable but modestly positive outlook for the rest of 2025, any deviation from these expectations — particularly toward stagflation or geopolitical escalation — could reignite a strong upward push. On the flip side, resolution of global conflicts and economic acceleration could temporarily weaken gold's allure, they said.
