INTERVIEW/ Philip Davidson: China's military buildup targets deterrence of U.S. and partners

Asahi Shimbun

a day ago

The 'incredible' expansion of China's military forces is eroding the deterrent effect that the United States, Japan and other countries have enjoyed over the past six decades, warned a retired commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
'With its military capability, along with its diplomatic and economic weight, China is strongly messaging that the West and Western institutions are in decline and that Chinese institutions are on the rise,' Adm. Philip Davidson told The Asahi Shimbun in a recent interview.
In 2021, the last year when he led Indo-Pacific Command, Davidson warned that a conflict could occur in the Taiwan Strait by 2027.
'I don't think it is China's current strategy to proceed to force or coercion,' Davidson said about Taiwan during the interview.
'Their current strategy is to erode everything around Taiwan, the diplomatic environment, the economic environment and the military environment, in a way in which the international community just becomes inured and everybody will accept that's the way things are.'
Excerpts from the interview follow:
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Question: Will you share your assessment of the current environment of the Asia-Pacific region?
Davidson: The security environment for the United States and Japan is the most serious in the last 35 years since the end of the Cold War with the Soviet Union.
When I traveled to Taiwan just about two years ago, they certainly described their security environment as the most severe that they had experienced in their modern history.
(It is) a quite difficult period in which China has stated plainly that its long-term objective is to supplant the global leadership role of countries like the United States and Japan that have led the international community for more than 70 years now and replace it with one that's led by the Chinese Communist Party.
I think that's the most severe threat to the United States and Japan.
Q: Specifically, what is the threat that China poses?
A: It is the incredible expansion of all of its military forces throughout the 21st century, particularly over the last 13 years or so (after Xi Jinping took office as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party).
China has greatly expanded its sea, air and ground forces, as well as its rocket and nuclear forces, when the United States and Japan have been essentially stagnant in their force levels.
With its military capability, along with its diplomatic and economic weight, China is strongly messaging that the West and Western institutions are in decline and that Chinese institutions are on the rise.
The real threat is that (China's military expansion) has served to erode the conventional deterrent that the United States, Japan and other allies and partners have exhibited in the region and provided in the security environment for these 60 years or so.
Q: What is China's intention of deploying naval ships around the world and conducting military exercises?
A: For more than a dozen years now, China has been making global deployments, whether to the Persian Gulf, the North Arabian Sea, South America or Europe, to demonstrate that they have a military capable of engaging globally.
They're also trying to demonstrate that they're a rising power that's challenging the United States and Western nations like Japan in their capability to cast global doubt on our leadership and our long-term trajectory of power.
Q: How do you assess the capabilities of China's large warships and fighter jets?
A: China is definitely increasing the numbers of its warships and weapons, but the United States and Japan still hold the edge in capability.
The capabilities of modern weapons that countries like the United States and Japan possess, such as the Aegis Weapon System, the F-35 stealth fighters and the SM-2 and SM-3 surface-to-air missiles, exceed those of Chinese weapons.
There have been 170-plus attacks (from Yemen's Houthi rebels) using drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles against U.S. Navy forces in the Red Sea in the last 20 months, and we've defeated all of them using our missiles and electronic warfare systems.
In addition to the capability of those systems, we also possess the edge in the talent of our people and the way we fight.
We have much more experience in warfare than China has, and our deep relationship and exercises in our alliance help keep our nations side by side in demonstrating that capability and upholding the talent of our people.
Q: China has been forging ahead with an arms buildup toward the goal of making the People's Liberation Army a 'world-class military' by 2049, the centenary of the founding of China. How should Japan and the United States respond?
A: The power of deterrence relies on the collective will (of allies and partners). Each nation needs to show what they're capable of.
When Xi and other Chinese leaders pull back the curtain and see nations (in the Asia-Pacific region) working collectively against China's objectives, or in support of (their) collective objective, that's a really difficult place for them to be.
When they draw back that curtain and see not only the U.S.-Japan alliance but also improvements in the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral relationship as well as in Japan's relationships with South Korea, the Philippines or many of its partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, that's not a good picture for them to make a conflict decision on.
(The Chinese leaders) see that collective capability and will out there, and it is deterring the potential for coercion and force use in the region.
Q: You told a U.S. Senate committee hearing in 2021: 'Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions. … And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.' What was your intention?
A: It wasn't the entirety of my thesis. The charge for the Indo-Pacific Command commander is to prevent a 'coerced'—which is the operative and most important term--unification between Taiwan and China.
You see many of the activities that China is doing in the military space, such as blockade rehearsals, and in the diplomatic space to isolate Taiwan from its partners.
China has engaged in a military buildup within the South China Sea and also implemented the National Security Law in Hong Kong. We've seen a great international city basically disappear.
I was trying to describe that the potential for a coerced outcome was much closer than people might have thought—that (it could happen sooner than) 2049 or 2035 (a waypoint year for Xi's goal of making China a 'great modern socialist country').
I was really concerned about the six years (through 2027, when Xi's third term ends), and the timing of his entering a potential fourth term is a factor in that.
Q: China has repeatedly conducted military exercises around Taiwan in recent years in a show of force. What is China's goal?
A: I don't think it is China's current strategy to proceed to force or coercion.
Their current strategy is to erode everything around Taiwan, the diplomatic environment, the economic environment and the military environment, in a way in which the international community just becomes inured and everybody will accept that's the way things are.
That's a very dangerous place to be.
The coercion and force piece relates to the fact that China continues to repeat that they are not taking force off the table. We have to take them at their word.
Q: Japan plans to raise its defense spending to 2 percent of its gross domestic product by fiscal 2027, but concerns remain about an escalating arms race. Can't we restrain China's high-handed behavior without increasing our defense outlays?
A: I do not think that we can reverse the erosion of our conventional deterrent without increasing our defense budgets. It's not a decision that we take lightly, but we're going to have to invest to restore our deterrent.
China has deployed many warships and numbers do matter. The great capacity that China has here is a concern.
The United States can work much more closely with Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, all of which have incredible shipbuilding capability and complementary capability.
Japanese and Americans have worked closely on advanced programs, such as the Aegis system, the F-35 and the SM-3.
Deepening our relationship in defenses and industries, especially shipbuilding, would help all of our needs.
(This article is based on an interview by Atsushi Okudera, a senior staff writer.)
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Retired Adm. Philip Davidson commanded U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, America's oldest and largest military combatant command with about 380,000 members, between 2018 and 2021.
He previously commanded U.S. Fleet Forces Command and the U.S. 6th Fleet.
Davidson currently serves as an advisory committee member for Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA.