'Fully in support': Some Alberta separatists try to rally support in the Trump White House
U.S. support
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In some ways, Alberta, with its resource-rich land and strong conservative, pro-oil and anti-regulatory leanings, seems perfectly aligned with Trump's drive to roll back efforts aimed at achieving net-zero emissions.
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To help forge such an alliance, Modry's APP met with 'the highest echelons of the US administration' back in April, he said, noting that he's been asked not to divulge names. Before the talks, the APP created a document detailing the benefits of Alberta sovereignty to the U.S., outlining 'opportunities in which the U.S. administration could facilitate Alberta sovereignty.'
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He refused to share details about those benefits, but Modry said they left the meeting 'very confident that the U.S. would be supportive of Alberta's sovereignty.'
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When asked whether the U.S. is doing anything now to support their independence bid, Modry said the U.S. team asked what they could do. He stressed that the APP told the Americans it was not asking for anything in particular.
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No other meetings are planned between the APP and the U.S. administration, and the next talks would come only after the petition succeeds and before a referendum is held, Modry said.
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Not all separatist leaders think such outreach is wise. Cameron Davies, the president of the Republican Party of Alberta, which has a memorandum of understanding with the Independence Party of Alberta — both organizations want Alberta to become a constitutional republic — said he has not been in touch with the White House and that any such contact would be 'improper' until after a vote. 'As a sovereign independent Alberta Republic,' he added, 'we would of course reach out to international leaders, seeking support and recognition.'
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Some analysts are skeptical that the U.S. would really support or get involved with Alberta separatism. 'I really don't see a situation whereby the United States would interfere in another country's affairs like that,' said Andrew Hale, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C.
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Trying to boost Albertan separatism might have the opposite effect, he added. 'I think it would backfire because everything President Trump has done so far with Canada has backfired.'
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'The bullying of Canada has actually increased Canadian unity,' Hale said, noting how bizarre it is to see Quebec separatists waving Canadian flags and rallying around Canadian unity.
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Adrienne Davidson, assistant professor of political science at McMaster University, tends to agree, noting how Trump's tariffs have only worked 'to bolster a stronger sense of Canadian national identity' and 'national solidarity to push back against American bullishness.'
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'Albertans have been frustrated for a long time with Ottawa,' says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, a project of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, 'and they feel that their voices aren't being heard.'
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The list of complaints includes limited provincial powers, initial loss of control over natural resources, and perceived unequal treatment and representation.
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While the true independence movement is 'a relatively recent manifestation of long-held grievances between Albertans and Ottawa,' said Davidson, 'the grievances that Alberta has with respect to the Canadian federation, with respect to Ottawa … those date back to the creation of Alberta (in 1905).'
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Leaders within the movement say momentum has been building for at least five decades. Modry pointed to Alberta's boom in the 1970s and how the region was devastated by the National Energy Program of 1980 under Pierre Trudeau. 'People lost their homes, lost their businesses,' Modry said, citing efforts by Trudeau's energy minister, Marc Lalonde, to increase Ottawa's economic power at the expense of the provinces.
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'So what we've recognized over decades now is that very thing: The structure of Canada, the way Confederation has been set up, makes it impossible for Alberta to have a meaningful voice,' Modry said.
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Smith, meanwhile, is aware that the independence movement has been gaining steam. After Carney's election, she suggested she would support a citizen-led petition for a referendum.
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'I believe in Alberta sovereignty within a united Canada,' Smith said in April.
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'However, there is a citizen initiative referendum process that if citizens want to put a question on a ballot and get enough of their fellow citizens to sign that petition, then those questions will be put forward.'
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Smith is 'walking a very fine line,' said Davidson, by putting 'wind into the sails of separation' with such talk and with her Alberta Next panel tour.
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But Tronnes sees it another way. 'There needs to be an outlet for (Albertans') frustration,' she said. 'Given the growing demand for a referendum, blocking one could be very politically damaging for (Smith),' she added.
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Legal wrangling may continue, and the petition may be shot down. But Davies, for one, doesn't see this as a barrier. 'At any time,' he said, 'a referendum can be conducted, and so what we've been consistently calling for is the UCP to schedule a referendum on Alberta's independence.
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'They don't have to take a side, but they need to schedule a referendum. Stop wasting time.'
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Polling predictions
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Whether Alberta's independence movement gets a public nod from Trump in the future is anyone's guess — and it might hurt the movement, as Hale and Davidson suggested — but Davies and Modry remain confident that they are on the path towards an independent Alberta.
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Polling suggests that a growing number of Albertans favour independence compared to 2021, but the numbers still fall well below a majority.
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Modry said he's seen polling with numbers closer to 48 per cent in favour of independence, while Davies said he's seen fluctuations between 38 and 42 per cent. And while those numbers are still shy of the 'clear majority' stipulated in the Clarity Act for any province seeking secession, both are convinced that the campaign ahead of a referendum will get the numbers where they need to be.
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If a referendum is called for next spring, Davies' Republicans would push Alberta to claw back power in all the areas that are constitutionally permissible. He said this should include control over immigration, taxation, and pensions.
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'And, at every step of the way, if Ottawa chooses to push back … I believe that (pro-independence) number that you see today would organically increase as Albertans begin to see that Ottawa views Alberta as nothing more than a resource colony.'
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Independence dreams
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Davies and Modry said both Alberta and Washington want tariff-free trade and would work toward an agreement if Alberta gains independence. When asked what they would do to promote free trade with the U.S., Davies pointed out that 'Alberta doesn't have free trade within Canada.'
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Once independent, he sees Alberta pursuing its own economic trade agreements with the U.S, Japan, South Korea and other Western democracies, and engaging on their own terms to market and export Alberta's emerging industries: energy, mining, forestry and agriculture.
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This would be done 'without the interference from Ottawa,' he said, predicting success.
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'I would suggest that an independent Alberta would, in fact, have greater access to foreign markets, which is something that we've lacked.'
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Davies also mentioned the market case for LNG, saying that Alberta would negotiate additional LNG terminals as an independent nation. If British Columbia pushes back, he added, 'then Alberta may have to look at going south of the border and accessing new LNG terminals that are being built every single year in the United States to get our energy to market.'
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Still, few outside the separatist movement believe an independence referendum will succeed — and even if it did, secession would face additional barriers at the federal level — but holding a referendum still sends a strong signal to both Ottawa and Washington.
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Strengthening its hand
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Whatever the outcome of a referendum — if one is held — Alberta may still emerge stronger, analysts suggest.
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'Alberta is well-positioned, no matter what happens, to be able to negotiate its future in Washington, D.C.,' said Tronnes. 'Alberta has a lot of things that America needs, particularly energy, but not just energy.'
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Smith is now a well-known entity in the U.S. — Americans would be hard-pressed to name other provincial premiers, apart from Doug Ford — and Alberta has successfully raised its international street cred in recent years.
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'The province has made the strategic choice to ensure that it has allies and friends throughout Washington, D.C., on both sides of the aisle, to make sure that when we're in a moment like this, that there is a network of people it can call upon to speak about what Alberta brings to the table,' Tronnes noted.
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