ODU study finds $15 billion in damage could occur if Category 3 storm hits Hampton Roads
It could cost Hampton Roads tens of billions if a Category 3 hurricane were to hit the region, according to a new study by professors at Old Dominion University.
Bob McNab, director of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy at ODU, said the team used Hurricane Florence to model scenarios for the region. Using a 3.6-foot tidal offset (meaning 3.6 feet in water rising from the median tide), potential damages across Hampton Roads were estimated at about $15.6 billion.
Researchers found that funding better flood infrastructure now is a better investment than paying to repair damages down the line.
'My worst-case scenario is Hampton Roads sees something happen like what happened to Homestead (Air Force Base),' McNab said. 'Remember, there's billions of dollars of military infrastructure, not including the defense industrial base, in the region.
'If Oceana, for example, or Langley (Air Force Base) experiences significant flooding and damage to infrastructure, the Department of Defense, may just go, 'That was enough. It was nice being there, but we're going to move everything to Kansas,' or somewhere else that's not as flood prone.'
The study also found storm of that magnitude would cause the short-term loss of more than 76,000 jobs. McNab said the positions affected would be concentrated in sectors that provide services to households. This includes industries such as retail trades, health care and social assistance and accommodation and food services.
McNab said uninsured costs are a major driver of economic losses for a region. He said a single storm can take out a home, which means the homeowners' main source of their wealth is gone as well as their source of income if their job is affected, as well. Homeowners in the 75th percentile for flood insurance claims observed 'no loss in housing value,' the study found, and insured homes created 'positive spillover' for the prices of nearby uninsured homes.
The study's researchers recommend increasing flood insurance enrollment and providing financial assistance to lower-income homeowners as potential policy solution to lessen impacts after a major storm. The study also found educating homeowners and renters on the costs associated with flood damage without insurance would be another step in the right direction.
Though hurricanes of larger proportions are relatively rare for more direct hits in Hampton Roads, they are not impossible. McNab pointed to the 1821 Norfolk-Long Island hurricane, a heavily destructive storm, that caused $330 billion in damages — when adjusted for inflation. If federal assistance from entities such as FEMA becomes more limited, McNab said recovery and losses could persist for years after a storm.
'One of the things that's complicating the interpretation of the results is that we really do not know if the federal government would provide the level of assistance and in a post-hurricane environment that it has in the past,' he said. 'We've seen, unfortunately, that the provision of aid can become a political question.'
Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com
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