Is a more working-class GOP on the horizon?

Boston Globe

27-02-2025

TODAY'S STARTING POINT
For much of the last century, the class lines of American politics have been fairly static. Most working-class voters without college degrees tended to support Democrats, while most wealthy, educated voters backed Republicans.
But in recent years, election by election, those lines have shifted. Last November, Donald Trump
Republicans' approach to the policy issues that concern many working-class voters has started to catch up to this electoral shift. Under Trump, the party has become more populist, anti-immigration, and skeptical of free trade. On other issues, though, there's room to grow. Many elected Republicans still favor cutting Medicaid and other social programs and want weaker labor unions.
'Both parties are struggling, and behind, to catch up with who their new bases are,' said Brent Buchanan, the president of Cygnal, a Republican polling firm. Today's newsletter examines some upcoming events that will test just how far the GOP will go in embracing the working class.
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A pro-labor administration?
When Trump picked Lori Chavez-DeRemer to be his secretary of labor, it surprised many political observers. Chavez-DeRemer, who represented an Oregon congressional district before losing to a Democrat last year, has the reputation that she's a rare union-friendly Republican. She
Even unions that typically endorse Democrats have given Chavez-DeRemer qualified praise. 'She has a record that would suggest she will be a pro-worker, good-for-unions labor secretary,' a spokeswoman for the AFL-CIO told me. 'The question remains, will she be able to do that in this administration?'
But if the Senate doesn't confirm her, she may not get the chance. In a sign of just how uneven the GOP's shift toward labor is,
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Still, there's other evidence of a shift, albeit a partial one. Trump, who filled his first administration with appointees unfriendly to labor groups, has begun to praise unions more often — at least those that praise him first. Yesterday, he
Other Republicans have followed suit. During a 2023 Senate hearing, Markwayne Mullen of Oklahoma nearly got into a fistfight with Sean O'Brien, the head of the Teamsters. Last week, Mullen
An added wrinkle is that many working-class voters either aren't union members or dislike unions' traditional support for Democrats. Buchanan, whose firm has conducted polling for Chavez-DeRemer, predicts a Republican Party more focused on the rank-and-file than on union leaders. 'That's what Lori Chavez-DeRemer represents,' he said. 'Not 'How do we make unions happy?''
Medicaid, taxes, and more
Other tests of the GOP's appetite for working-class issues will come from policy debates.
The biggest may be Medicaid, which millions of low-income Americans rely on and most voters support. Yet this week, House Republicans advanced a measure that would likely cut Medicaid to fund tax cuts that largely benefit the rich.
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Other proposals Trump wants enacted — like ending taxes on tips, even though it could
So far, the Trumpified GOP has gained with working-class voters despite not yet adopting their every policy preference. But more may be needed to keep them casting ballots for Republican candidates not named Trump. 'They aren't gonna show up if they don't feel like they're being taken care of,' Buchanan said.
What's next?
Republicans have choices about how worker-friendly they want to be. But other factors may be outside their control.
Many working-class voters who backed Trump did so because of high prices. If inflation flares or the economy worsens, they could sour. Several polls (from
The factors driving the working class rightward are also not purely economic. Buchanan, who's writing a book about the emotional underpinnings of the dynamic, argues that anger over progressive positions on immigration and transgender rights matter more.
If that's true, how Democrats adapt to the new political reality may help determine whether the GOP becomes a true workers' party.
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