Latest news with #Cygnal
Newsweek
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Jon Ossoff Edges Out All But One Republican in New Georgia Senate Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, a Democrat, fares better than all but one of his Republican rivals heading into the 2026 midterms, when he will have to defend his seat from challengers. Why It Matters Republicans hold a slender majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, meaning they must win any and all seats up for grabs if they hope to more effecitvely push through their agenda without needing to rely on reconciliation. Republicans view Georgia, which narrowly supported President Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as a major opportunity to make one such gain. The state has grown increasingly purple over the most recent elections: Senator Marjorie Taylor Green, a Republican, has already seen poor polling that could indicate Republican hardline politics may have limited appeal in what could be an incredibly contentious and tightly run midterm competition. What To Know According to polling data from polling and analytics firm Cygnal, Ossoff beats his closest republican rivals with some healthy margins. Only Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia Secretary of State, poses a considerable threat from the Republicans—unless Georgia Governor Brian Kemp decides to join the race. Raffensperger scored a statistical tie against Ossoff in the polling, and other potential rivals, including Kelly Loeffler, who previously ran against Ossoff and lost despite Trump's backing, fell outside of the margin of error, which Cygnal identified as plus or minus 3.4 percent. One potential stumbling block for Ossoff is Mike Collins, one of the current representatives from Georgia, who is behind Ossoff by only 2.5 points, putting him within the margin of error but outside of a statistical tie, such as the case of Raffensperger. While Cygnal did not poll Kemp versus Ossoff, the data showed that Kemp has an overwhelmingly positive net favorability: Kemp has a net favorability of over 25 percent compared to Ossoff's 7.7 percent. However, Cygnal found that between 11 and 13 percent of respondents were undecided, leaving much room for either side to gain an advantage as the midterms draw closer. Notably, when asked about a generic U.S. Senate ballot and whether the election was held today, would the respondents vote for a republican or Democrat, the republican came out ahead 48 percent to 44 percent. U.S. Sen. John Ossoff (D-GA) speaks at a campaign rally for Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris at the Georgia State Convocation Center on July 30, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. U.S. Sen. John Ossoff (D-GA) speaks at a campaign rally for Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris at the Georgia State Convocation Center on July 30, 2024 in Atlanta, Cygnal poll surveyed 800 Georgia voters, all of whom voted in the 2024 general election, and was conducted between May 15 and 17 of this year. Interviews were conducted over phone calls and text. Cygnal works with many Republican campaigns and groups, including the Republican Attorneys General, the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, and several governors, including Kemp and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, according to the firm's website. The polls also identified inflation in the economy as a potential top concern for voters going into next year's midterms, followed by threats to democracy, illegal immigration and border security, Social Security and Medicare, and government spending and waste. Half of all respondents said that they found that Georgia was going in the right direction while just over one-third said that the state was on the wrong track. What People Are Saying GOP operative Stephen Lawson told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "If Brian Kemp runs for the U.S. Senate, Brian Kemp will be the next U.S. Senator from Georgia. "But if he takes a pass, Republicans should be much more judicious about who the nominee is, given the uncertain political environment and the fact that Jon Ossoff has proven he will be a formidable opponent." What Happens Next The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026, during which time Ossoff's seat will be up for grabs.
Boston Globe
27-02-2025
- Politics
- Boston Globe
Is a more working-class GOP on the horizon?
TODAY'S STARTING POINT For much of the last century, the class lines of American politics have been fairly static. Most working-class voters without college degrees tended to support Democrats, while most wealthy, educated voters backed Republicans. But in recent years, election by election, those lines have shifted. Last November, Donald Trump Republicans' approach to the policy issues that concern many working-class voters has started to catch up to this electoral shift. Under Trump, the party has become more populist, anti-immigration, and skeptical of free trade. On other issues, though, there's room to grow. Many elected Republicans still favor cutting Medicaid and other social programs and want weaker labor unions. 'Both parties are struggling, and behind, to catch up with who their new bases are,' said Brent Buchanan, the president of Cygnal, a Republican polling firm. Today's newsletter examines some upcoming events that will test just how far the GOP will go in embracing the working class. Advertisement A pro-labor administration? When Trump picked Lori Chavez-DeRemer to be his secretary of labor, it surprised many political observers. Chavez-DeRemer, who represented an Oregon congressional district before losing to a Democrat last year, has the reputation that she's a rare union-friendly Republican. She Even unions that typically endorse Democrats have given Chavez-DeRemer qualified praise. 'She has a record that would suggest she will be a pro-worker, good-for-unions labor secretary,' a spokeswoman for the AFL-CIO told me. 'The question remains, will she be able to do that in this administration?' But if the Senate doesn't confirm her, she may not get the chance. In a sign of just how uneven the GOP's shift toward labor is, Advertisement Still, there's other evidence of a shift, albeit a partial one. Trump, who filled his first administration with appointees unfriendly to labor groups, has begun to praise unions more often — at least those that praise him first. Yesterday, he Other Republicans have followed suit. During a 2023 Senate hearing, Markwayne Mullen of Oklahoma nearly got into a fistfight with Sean O'Brien, the head of the Teamsters. Last week, Mullen An added wrinkle is that many working-class voters either aren't union members or dislike unions' traditional support for Democrats. Buchanan, whose firm has conducted polling for Chavez-DeRemer, predicts a Republican Party more focused on the rank-and-file than on union leaders. 'That's what Lori Chavez-DeRemer represents,' he said. 'Not 'How do we make unions happy?'' Medicaid, taxes, and more Other tests of the GOP's appetite for working-class issues will come from policy debates. The biggest may be Medicaid, which millions of low-income Americans rely on and most voters support. Yet this week, House Republicans advanced a measure that would likely cut Medicaid to fund tax cuts that largely benefit the rich. Advertisement Other proposals Trump wants enacted — like ending taxes on tips, even though it could So far, the Trumpified GOP has gained with working-class voters despite not yet adopting their every policy preference. But more may be needed to keep them casting ballots for Republican candidates not named Trump. 'They aren't gonna show up if they don't feel like they're being taken care of,' Buchanan said. What's next? Republicans have choices about how worker-friendly they want to be. But other factors may be outside their control. Many working-class voters who backed Trump did so because of high prices. If inflation flares or the economy worsens, they could sour. Several polls (from The factors driving the working class rightward are also not purely economic. Buchanan, who's writing a book about the emotional underpinnings of the dynamic, argues that anger over progressive positions on immigration and transgender rights matter more. If that's true, how Democrats adapt to the new political reality may help determine whether the GOP becomes a true workers' party. 🧩 2 Down: | ☔ 49° POINTS OF INTEREST Minh-Thi Nguyen, an MIT grad student who was a victim of a Cambridge cycling crash. courtesey photo Boston and New England Demoted, then promoted: The Mass. House speaker removed Jeffrey Roy, a Democrat dating a lobbyist, from the committee he led — and then added him Getting sicker: An unusually bad second wave of the flu in the state Bike accident: The family of a Cambridge cyclist, Minh-Thi Nguyen, who was fatally struck by a box truck last summer, 'See you in court:' With those words, Janet Mills went from a 77-year-old governor in her final term to an unlikely leader of the Trump resistance. ( Punished: Maine's Democratic-controlled House censured a Republican who posted a photo of the underage trans athlete at the center of the Trump-Mills row. ( Trump Administration More firings: The White House told federal agencies to prepare to lay off 'significant' numbers of staff next month. ( At loggerheads: House and Senate Republicans insisted that they wouldn't accept the other chamber's version of a measure to enact Trump's agenda. ( Science-free zone: Trump's EPA wants to reverse a government declaration that greenhouse gases harm human health, threatening clean-air regulations. ( On hold: The Supreme Court paused a court order requiring the administration to release billions of dollars in foreign aid, most of which the administration plans to eliminate. ( Says who? Nominees to join Trump's Justice Department suggested that the administration could ignore court orders it disagrees with. ( Warning shot: The FDA canceled an annual meeting of its advisers to update flu vaccines for next season. It gave no reason. ( One vet's story: Mike Slater did four tours of duty in the Army, risking his life in Iraq and Afghanistan and eventually working at the VA Veterans Center in Springfield. Oops: Musk said he'd 'accidentally canceled' US efforts to prevent Ebola's spread, but claimed he restored it. In fact, those efforts largely remain paused. ( The Nation and the World Advertisement Gone too soon: Michelle Trachtenberg, who starred on 'Gossip Girl and 'Buffy the Vampire Slayer,' died at 39. ( Finding religion: The percentage of Americans who identify as Christian had been falling for decades. Now that decline seems to have leveled off. ( Going Postal: A 'sad and disgusted' Marty Baron, former Washington Post editor, The GOAT? Diana Taurasi, considered the best women's basketball player in history, is retiring after three national championships at UConn, three WNBA titles, and six Olympic gold medals: 'I'm full and I'm happy.' ( Hostage remains: Israel is working to identify four hostages whose bodies Hamas turned over yesterday. ( BESIDE THE POINT 🤿 Go relax: If you have vacation time, use it. 🎭 Just you wait: 'Hamilton,' 'Suffs,' 'Beauty and the Beast.' The new 🦅 Why, Eagles, why? Our writer ❤️ Love Letters: She's interested in her stepbrother. 🏠 Look out below: The owners of a luxury Cape Cod home perched on an eroding bluff 🧑🦰 Good for you, Coco: Conan O'Brien 🏀 Tournament time: Massachusetts high school sports playoffs are underway. Here's 👰 The Big Day: After three decades of friendship, 🪦 Epilogue: Dr. Alvin F. Poussaint, a Harvard psychiatrist who studied racism's impact on Black mental health, 📧 Want this sent to your inbox? Ian Prasad Philbrick can be reached at
