How Netanyahu has used Hamas attack to reshape Middle East

Arab News

5 hours ago

https://arab.news/m8pgk
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been campaigning against Iran since the 1990s. He has used all possible excuses to demonize the Tehran regime, just as he incited Washington against Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Syria's Assad regime. Yes, Iran, Iraq, and Syria were sworn enemies of Israel. But while Netanyahu used the US to threaten, penalize, and eventually attack these regimes, he made sure no one raised the essential question about why such hostilities existed in the first place.
The tragedy of Palestine lay at the heart of all three conflicts. Netanyahu never made that connection. For him, these countries represented an existential threat to the state of Israel out of pure hatred and animosity toward his country.
The Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack provided a beleaguered Netanyahu with the excuse to wage war not only against the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank but also Iran's proxies in the region and, finally, against Iran itself on June 13.
Last week, he was able to lure the Trump administration into his war. The US attack on Iran's nuclear site had fulfilled Netanyahu's plan for what he has repeated several times: a new Middle East shaped by Israel. Since December 2023, the Israeli leader has been declaring that Israel was fighting a war on behalf of the Western world, seeking to reshape the Middle East. He has said many times that he is closer than ever to achieving this goal.
Regardless of how this latest Israel-Iran faceoff will end, Tehran will have to de-escalate to preserve the regime and avoid a wider war with the US. Only one party can claim an overwhelming victory: Netanyahu's Israel. But what does a humbled Iran mean in regional geopolitical terms?
An Iranian capitulation is highly unlikely
Osama Al-Sharif
If Iran finally resorts to diplomacy, now that its nuclear program has been gravely degraded, then there will be new terms. It may have to relent and accept stricter conditions on its ability to enrich uranium, which has been the main issue of disagreement. Any political route to a peaceful settlement will have to resolve this point.
But, for Netanyahu, this is no longer the issue. For him, regime change is now the ultimate prize. For the Trump administration, this is a case where its position remains ambiguous. An Iranian capitulation — an issue the mediators will struggle to define — is highly unlikely. Netanyahu will resist any political compromise between Washington and Tehran. But the Trump administration has to think of his MAGA base, which has been overly against a new Middle Eastern war.
The US will have to take into account the position of its regional Arab allies, who are anxious about a new extended war in the region. Pushing Iran against the wall may result in an extended battle of attrition that stands to hurt Western economies and force Tehran to adopt extreme measures such as closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking US military assets in the region.
In all cases, one potential winner will emerge and ensure the world knows about it. Netanyahu will claim that in less than two years, his army had destroyed Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, helped bring the regime of Bashar Assad down, degraded the power of the Houthis in Yemen, neutralized the pro-Iran militias in Iraq, and impeded Iran's ability to retaliate.
He will say that he did all this on behalf of the West, while reshaping the Middle East. And in many ways, he will be right.
If Iran and its proxies are sidelined, Israel will emerge as a significant regional power with virtually no enemies. That is becoming a likelier scenario, and one can go back to the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks to see how a grand geopolitical domino effect has taken place, serving Israel's interests.
But what does that mean for this region? With Iran humbled and out of the way, Israel will emerge as the region's supreme power with no real threat. Iran may rely on its regional proxies, but none can present a real challenge to Israel.
However, a triumphant Israel will not offer an olive branch to the region. Even with Iran's nuclear threat averted, Israel is unlikely to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It will continue to be the only country in the region to possess nuclear weapons.
Also, an Israeli victory against Iran will encourage Netanyahu and his extremist government to annex most of the West Bank, while carrying out the most extensive plan of ethnic cleansing in Gaza, with little international rejection.
The fact is that Israel has been gaslighting the international community for months about its genocidal war in Gaza. Now, it wants to tell the world that it is fighting Iran on behalf of the Western world.
Trump is in a position to redraw the lines
Osama Al-Sharif
The US is in a position to redraw the lines. Yes, Iran has a history of destabilizing the region, but so does Israel. At the end of the first Gulf War, President George Bush Sr. called for the Madrid Conference. President George W. Bush tried to launch a peace process after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Can we expect something similar this time around?
At this crucial moment, Trump must initiate a new political process that addresses the root causes of all conflicts in the region. Defeating Iran will not eliminate the source of these hostilities. On the contrary, it will embolden Netanyahu and the Israeli extremists to push for Biblical premises that claim Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq as part of a greater Israel.
Arab governments have had a complex relationship with Islamic Iran since 1979. But in the end, there will have to be a balance between where Iran, as a thousand-year culture, stands and what Netanyahu's new Middle East means.
If Netanyahu's new Middle East spells out Israeli hegemony, then the countries of the region should think deeply about what that means for the entire area. Does that allow Israel to expel 2 million Palestinians from Gaza? Or does it pave the way for Israel to expel almost 3 million from the West Bank? How would that affect Jordan and Egypt?
Netanyahu's new Middle East offers the Palestinians nothing. It assumes that life can go on with Israel as a regional hegemon, while giving nothing to the Palestinians. Even worse, it believes that it can push for a greater Israel that spans territories belonging to sovereign Arab states. At one point, the Arab world will have to respond.