Stock market today: Rally resumes as Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow gain for third day in a row
US stocks rallied on Thursday, with Big Tech leading the way as investors digested mixed signals from President Trump and his top advisers on tariffs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1%. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose over 2%. The "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks all gained.
Investors' expectations of a Fed rate cut increased on Thursday after Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said policymakers could move forward with a cut in June if the economic data is clear and convincing by then.
The S&P 500 was on pace for its third day of gains after rallying over 4% in the last two sessions, boosted in large part by tariff-talk optimism. On Wednesday, stocks rallied as the US floated slashing China tariffs, though the stock surge eased when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there has been "no unilateral offer from the president to deescalate" the trade war with China.
Meanwhile, China stood defiant as the US eased its rhetoric, demanding that the US eliminate all tariffs and denying that any talks have taken place between the nations.
Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs
While Trump's apparent eagerness to negotiate takes the spotlight, his approach to other key tariffs grew more muddled.
The Financial Times reported that the Trump administration is considering exempting automakers from the most punishing auto tariffs, yet Trump said from the Oval Office that a 25% tariff on cars imported from Canada could increase.
The White House also ordered a probe into truck imports, paving the way for tariffs on the sector.
In corporates, IBM (IBM) shares dropped on Thursday after the company revealed 15 government contracts were impacted by cost cuts from the Trump administration. Chipotle (CMG) shares rose slightly after its first quarter earnings missed expectations and it lowered its 2025 forecast.
On Thursday, Wall Street's attention will shift to Alphabet earnings. While investors don't expect the company's results to be impacted by Trump's trade war yet, they'll be watching for any warning signs of how tariffs could hit the business in the near future.
Intel is also reporting earnings after the bell on Thursday. The results will be the company's first under the leadership of its new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan.
Dovish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack on Thursday were helping drive the market higher on Thursday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.8% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 1.8%.
During an interview with CNBC Thursday morning, Hammack ruled out a May interest rate cut but indicated that policymakers could move forward with one in June if the data is clear by then.
"If we have clear and convincing data by June, then I think you'll see the committee move if we know which way is the right way to move at that point in time," Hammack said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned recently of an unclear path for policy makers in the short term as the impact of President Trump's tariff policy plays out. Powell has warned of persistent inflation and slower growth due to the policy.
Two crypto-related ventures tied to President Trump are surging this week.
Trump's cryptocurrency, $TRUMP (TRUMP-OFFICIAL-USD), soared 33% on Thursday.
Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports that the rally in the meme coin came after an announcement Wednesday that there will be a gala dinner at the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va., for the coin's 220 biggest holders. The 25 biggest Trump coin holders will also receive a "special tour" and VIP reception with the president.
It's the latest sign of Trump's financial involvement with the crypto industry.
Earlier in the week, Truth Social parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), said it will partner with Crypto.com to launch a series of ETFs under the Truth.Fi brand. These ETFs would hold "Made in America" crypto and stocks.
Shares of DJT fell over 1% on Thursday but are up more than 30% over the past five days.
Read more here about Trump's embrace of the crypto industry.
Intel (INTC) stock rose as much as roughly 4% early Thursday before paring gains ahead of its first earnings report since gaining a new CEO.
A semiconductor industry veteran, Intel's new chief executive, Lip-Bu Tan, was appointed to the role in March, replacing his ousted predecessor, Pat Gelsinger. Former executives say Tan is the chipmaker's last hope for a turnaround.
But Tan is inheriting a company whose financial losses have made it a takeover target in recent months, and rumors have swirled of the government stepping in to save the firm as the US looks to strengthen domestic chip manufacturing. Intel's fledgling new manufacturing division, which makes chips for outside customers and has won support from US CHIPS Act funding, is bleeding cash and straining financials just as Intel's chips lose market share to rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Intel's earnings report may reveal details about Tan's intentions for the company and whether its latest chip manufacturing process, 18A, is on track. That process is the company's last hope to catch up to rival TSMC (TSM) and attract much-needed outside customers.
Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley has more on the upcoming earnings report here.
Intel stock also jumped on Wednesday following a report that Intel will eliminate 20% of its workforce.
Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reports:
Read more here.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2% Thursday morning, leading the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks higher as the group climbed for a third day.
Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG) trailed closely behind Nvidia, rising nearly 2%. Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) rose more than 1%, while Apple (AAPL) climbed less than 1%.
The group extended its rally that began Tuesday as the Trump administration hinted at a potential deescalation of the US-China trade war. China has denied that it's made any progress in trade talks with the US since being slapped with 145% "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump.
The Magnificent Seven stock gains added more than $840 billion to their cumulative market capitalizations between Monday's close and the end of Wednesday's trading session.
The rally comes amid a volatile year as Trump's ever-changing trade policies rock the stock market, with tech stocks feeling the brunt of the impact. The Magnificent Seven stocks are all down year to date.
Meanwhile, Big Tech earnings season is underway. Google parent Alphabet is set to report earnings after the bell Thursday. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon earnings are next week.
The resale housing market stalled in March during a critical selling season as high mortgage rates sidelined buyers, deepening affordability challenges.
Existing home sales declined nearly 6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. This marked the steepest monthly decrease since November 2022. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected sales to reach 4.15 million.
Sales remain down, with a 2.4% decrease from last year and a drop from 4.12 million in March 2024.
'Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,' NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a press release. 'Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.'
House hunters remain on the fence about buying a home as mortgage rates march toward 7%. Separate data shows applications to purchase a home fell for a second week to the lowest level since February, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Netflix stock just hit a new all-time high of above $1,070 a share.
The move comes after the company reported earnings last week that topped expectations and solidified the company's position as a defensive player in an industry grappling with economic uncertainty tied to President Trump's trade war, according to Wall Street analysts.
"Netflix [is] playing offense, while stock remains defensive," JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth wrote in a client note published on Sunday, echoing recent industry comments that the platform remains the "cleanest story in internet."
The stock's resilience is a standout in the tech landscape as rising costs, regulatory pressures, tariff whiplash, and a potential slowdown in advertising revenue have weighed on shares of many Big Tech leaders this year.
During the earnings call, Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters said the company was closely monitoring consumer sentiment amid tariff-related uncertainty but had seen no significant changes in its business performance.
"We're paying close attention clearly to the consumer sentiment and where the broader economy is moving," Peters said. "But based on what we are seeing by actually operating the business right now, there's nothing really significant to note."
Read more about what Wall Street has said about Netflix here.
Four times a year, US companies give away more information about their business than they'd like.
For investors, this quarterly ritual is a chance to get an update on the state of America's largest companies, the overall economy, and get a certain outline of where things are headed next.
But the earnings period is starting to look like it might fall way short of meeting these marks.
For one thing, companies are pulling guidance left and right because of uncertainty related to Trump's tariffs. American Airlines (AAL) is just the latest. It's an expected outcome, of course, because if you can't feel good about internal forecasts, why would you offer investor-facing guidance? After all, guidance isn't a required disclosure.
Another emerging trend, however, might be even more challenging for investors: demand (and profits) getting pulled forward.
In a note to clients on Thursday morning, Wamsi Mohan and the team at Bank of America lowered their price target on Apple stock by $10/share while raising their sales estimates for its most recent and current quarter "driven by some pull forward of demand" due to tariffs.
For the balance of the year, Mohan's team cut these estimates "to adjust for higher costs of navigating a more complex supply chain and for delays in launching an AI enabled Siri."
This indicates that the company is really facing headwinds on three fronts: consumer demand related to tariffs, supply chain issues related to tariffs, and strategic questions.
All businesses always face the third. That's what business is: a rolling series of strategic decisions that are either working or not.
But the first two are where we're finding the bulk of companies and analysts spending the bulk of their time. And neither the impact on consumer spending nor the impact on business investment from tariffs is easily quantifiable right now.
Making the most pressing economic question facing companies and their workers unanswerable, while the most persistent economic questions facing companies and their workers get put on the back burner.
Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports:
Read more here.
US stocks were mixed on Thursday following a two-day rally as traders weighed the latest Trump administration tariff developments and China denied deal talks were taking place with Washington.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.4%. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose above the flatline, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.2%.
Stocks have rallied over the past two days in hopes that some sort of deal between the US with China will come to fruition, or tariffs on the country would be reduced substantially. On Thursday however China's Ministry of Commerce indicated Beijing was not negotiating a deal with Washington.
The trade war is already impacting company outlooks. American Airlines (AAL) pulled its full-year guidance on Thursday, saying it intends to post it when the economic outlook becomes clearer.
Meanwhile PepsiCo cut its guidance. The beverage company now sees no earnings growth in 2025. It previously expected low-single-digit percentage growth.
An emerging theme in the US economy is the idea of businesses and consumers front-running tariffs by pulling forward spending to get ahead of price increases.
Thursday morning's durable goods order release from the Census Bureau might be the best example yet.
Durable goods orders rose 9.2% in March from the previous month, blowing away forecasts for a 2% rise as one of the biggest increases in aircraft orders on record pushed the number above consensus.
Aircraft orders rose 190% in March, which Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said was "likely driven in part by worries about tariffs."
Excluding defense spending, durable goods orders rose 10.4%. In Allen's view, however, the balance of Thursday's report showed, "[the main measures of underlying orders were relatively weak in March."
And with tariffs likely to further upset the ability for businesses to commit to new, large outlays, "Far weaker capital goods orders and equipment investment surely lie ahead, however, over the next few quarters.
"The rush of pre-tariff activity probably now will unwind sharply, policy uncertainty is so intense that many new investment projects will be paused or shelved, and capital goods exports to China will nosedive."
In markets, sentiment spurs action, Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland wrote in today's Morning Brief. And the current levels of pessimism owing to tariff-related uncertainty may be approaching a sentiment washout. Myles writes:
Read more here.
Procter & Gamble (PG) stock fell 1% after the Tide detergent maker lowered its sales and profit forecast amid a pullback in consumer spending.
"We expect uncertainty to continue", P&G CEO Jon Moeller told Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi.
A P&G spokesperson said US shoppers slowed their spending in February and March, per Reuters, as President Trump's tariffs raised recession concerns. The company did not disclose the extent of the impact it expects from tariffs.
Procter & Gamble now expects total net sales for 2025 to remain flat from last year, down from 2% to 4% growth. This, coupled with Pepsi's (PEP) guidance cut, suggests signs of stress from consumer goods companies amid tariff-fueled uncertainty, though consumer staples are generally seen as safe havens during economic downturns.
Read more here.
American Airlines (AAL) pulled its full-year guidance on Thursday, saying it intends to post it when the economic outlook becomes clearer.
"The company is withdrawing its full-year guidance at this time. American intends to provide a full-year update as the economic outlook becomes clearer," the airline said in its quarterly results release.
The guidance pull from American comes after its peer Delta (DAL) did not affirm its full-year forecast earlier this month, citing headwinds from the economic uncertainty surrounding the trade war. Meanwhile, United (UAL) recently took the unusual step of issuing two profit scenarios.
On Thursday morning, American posted first quarter revenue of $12.6 billion versus expectations of $12.53 billion. The airline's adjusted loss per share came in at $0.59 versus a loss of $0.69 expected by Wall Street.
Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending April 19); Chicago Fed national activity index (March); Durable goods orders (March preliminary); Capital goods orders (March preliminary); Existing home sales (March); Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
Earnings: Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), American Airlines (AAL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Intel (INTC), Merck (MRK), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Nokia (NOK), PepsiCo (PEP), Skechers (SKX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), T-Mobile (TMUS), Union Pacific (UNP), Valero (VLO)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
Trump pushing markets around isn't only about Trump
Tariffs latest: China calls US trade negotiation claims 'groundless'
Chinese customers are rejecting new jets due to tariffs
Why Tesla's upcoming cheaper EV is going to look very familiar
American Airlines pulls 2025 outlook amid tariff uncertainty
PepsiCo cuts annual profit forecast amid trade war turmoil
Battered and bruised dollar has further to fall: Goldman
Jefferies: US stocks' best days are behind, sees more losses ahead
The market bears can add a rare earnings warning from PepsiCo (PEP) to their arsenal against the bulls.
Having covered PepsiCo for about 15 years, I can tell you it's not the norm that they cut guidance. The company takes guidance super seriously, maybe too seriously.
Yet here we are in a trade war, and PepsiCo now sees no earnings growth in 2025. It previously expected low-single-digit percentage growth.
Couple this with the Chipotle (CMG) warning last night, and you get a picture of a consumer starting to retrench due to tariff-related economic concerns.
Chipotle's (CMG) stock dropped 3% on Thursday after its first quarter report missed expectations and it lowered its 2025 forecast.
Yahoo Finance's senior reporter Brooke DiPalma looks into how the burrito maker has performed in a slowing economy:
Read more here.
IBM (IBM) shares fell over 7% on Thursday after the company revealed that 15 of its government contracts were canceled under a cost-cutting drive by the Trump administration.
Reuters reports:
The $100 million setback overshadowed its better-than-expected first-quarter results and an upbeat revenue forecast, adding to investor uncertainty despite IBM's efforts to boost transparency and maintain growth targets.
The federal consulting businesses of Big Blue's rivals, such as Accenture, have also taken a hit from belt-tightening efforts by the US administration and its Department of Government Efficiency.
The impacted contracts amounted to about $100 million, which was less than 1% of the order backlog in IBM's consulting unit, finance chief James Kavanaugh told Reuters on Wednesday.
Read more here.
Gold (GC=F) bounced back after its biggest single-day drop of the year, as traders weighed conflicting messages from the US on China tariffs.
Bloomberg News reports:
Read more here.
The dollar (DX=F) pulled back from a recent rebound late Thursday as President Donald Trump walked back his unsubstantiated threats to remove Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell from office.
Reuters reports:
After dipping below 140 yen on Tuesday, the dollar has rebounded off major chart support and was last at 143.25 yen on Thursday.
It caught an extra boost when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. did not have a specific currency target in mind, ahead of talks with his Japanese counterpart. Bessent has also said the current de-facto embargo on U.S.-China trade was unsustainable, while cautioning that the U.S. would not move first in lowering its levies of more than 100% on Chinese goods.
The dollar has recovered from a three-and-a-half-year low of $1.1572 per euro, but encountered a little selling in the Asia morning to steady around $1.1338.
Read more here.
Dovish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack on Thursday were helping drive the market higher on Thursday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.8% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 1.8%.
During an interview with CNBC Thursday morning, Hammack ruled out a May interest rate cut but indicated that policymakers could move forward with one in June if the data is clear by then.
"If we have clear and convincing data by June, then I think you'll see the committee move if we know which way is the right way to move at that point in time," Hammack said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned recently of an unclear path for policy makers in the short term as the impact of President Trump's tariff policy plays out. Powell has warned of persistent inflation and slower growth due to the policy.
Two crypto-related ventures tied to President Trump are surging this week.
Trump's cryptocurrency, $TRUMP (TRUMP-OFFICIAL-USD), soared 33% on Thursday.
Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports that the rally in the meme coin came after an announcement Wednesday that there will be a gala dinner at the Trump National Golf Club in Sterling, Va., for the coin's 220 biggest holders. The 25 biggest Trump coin holders will also receive a "special tour" and VIP reception with the president.
It's the latest sign of Trump's financial involvement with the crypto industry.
Earlier in the week, Truth Social parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), said it will partner with Crypto.com to launch a series of ETFs under the Truth.Fi brand. These ETFs would hold "Made in America" crypto and stocks.
Shares of DJT fell over 1% on Thursday but are up more than 30% over the past five days.
Read more here about Trump's embrace of the crypto industry.
Intel (INTC) stock rose as much as roughly 4% early Thursday before paring gains ahead of its first earnings report since gaining a new CEO.
A semiconductor industry veteran, Intel's new chief executive, Lip-Bu Tan, was appointed to the role in March, replacing his ousted predecessor, Pat Gelsinger. Former executives say Tan is the chipmaker's last hope for a turnaround.
But Tan is inheriting a company whose financial losses have made it a takeover target in recent months, and rumors have swirled of the government stepping in to save the firm as the US looks to strengthen domestic chip manufacturing. Intel's fledgling new manufacturing division, which makes chips for outside customers and has won support from US CHIPS Act funding, is bleeding cash and straining financials just as Intel's chips lose market share to rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Intel's earnings report may reveal details about Tan's intentions for the company and whether its latest chip manufacturing process, 18A, is on track. That process is the company's last hope to catch up to rival TSMC (TSM) and attract much-needed outside customers.
Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley has more on the upcoming earnings report here.
Intel stock also jumped on Wednesday following a report that Intel will eliminate 20% of its workforce.
Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reports:
Read more here.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose 2% Thursday morning, leading the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks higher as the group climbed for a third day.
Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG) trailed closely behind Nvidia, rising nearly 2%. Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) rose more than 1%, while Apple (AAPL) climbed less than 1%.
The group extended its rally that began Tuesday as the Trump administration hinted at a potential deescalation of the US-China trade war. China has denied that it's made any progress in trade talks with the US since being slapped with 145% "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump.
The Magnificent Seven stock gains added more than $840 billion to their cumulative market capitalizations between Monday's close and the end of Wednesday's trading session.
The rally comes amid a volatile year as Trump's ever-changing trade policies rock the stock market, with tech stocks feeling the brunt of the impact. The Magnificent Seven stocks are all down year to date.
Meanwhile, Big Tech earnings season is underway. Google parent Alphabet is set to report earnings after the bell Thursday. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon earnings are next week.
The resale housing market stalled in March during a critical selling season as high mortgage rates sidelined buyers, deepening affordability challenges.
Existing home sales declined nearly 6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. This marked the steepest monthly decrease since November 2022. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected sales to reach 4.15 million.
Sales remain down, with a 2.4% decrease from last year and a drop from 4.12 million in March 2024.
'Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,' NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a press release. 'Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.'
House hunters remain on the fence about buying a home as mortgage rates march toward 7%. Separate data shows applications to purchase a home fell for a second week to the lowest level since February, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Netflix stock just hit a new all-time high of above $1,070 a share.
The move comes after the company reported earnings last week that topped expectations and solidified the company's position as a defensive player in an industry grappling with economic uncertainty tied to President Trump's trade war, according to Wall Street analysts.
"Netflix [is] playing offense, while stock remains defensive," JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth wrote in a client note published on Sunday, echoing recent industry comments that the platform remains the "cleanest story in internet."
The stock's resilience is a standout in the tech landscape as rising costs, regulatory pressures, tariff whiplash, and a potential slowdown in advertising revenue have weighed on shares of many Big Tech leaders this year.
During the earnings call, Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters said the company was closely monitoring consumer sentiment amid tariff-related uncertainty but had seen no significant changes in its business performance.
"We're paying close attention clearly to the consumer sentiment and where the broader economy is moving," Peters said. "But based on what we are seeing by actually operating the business right now, there's nothing really significant to note."
Read more about what Wall Street has said about Netflix here.
Four times a year, US companies give away more information about their business than they'd like.
For investors, this quarterly ritual is a chance to get an update on the state of America's largest companies, the overall economy, and get a certain outline of where things are headed next.
But the earnings period is starting to look like it might fall way short of meeting these marks.
For one thing, companies are pulling guidance left and right because of uncertainty related to Trump's tariffs. American Airlines (AAL) is just the latest. It's an expected outcome, of course, because if you can't feel good about internal forecasts, why would you offer investor-facing guidance? After all, guidance isn't a required disclosure.
Another emerging trend, however, might be even more challenging for investors: demand (and profits) getting pulled forward.
In a note to clients on Thursday morning, Wamsi Mohan and the team at Bank of America lowered their price target on Apple stock by $10/share while raising their sales estimates for its most recent and current quarter "driven by some pull forward of demand" due to tariffs.
For the balance of the year, Mohan's team cut these estimates "to adjust for higher costs of navigating a more complex supply chain and for delays in launching an AI enabled Siri."
This indicates that the company is really facing headwinds on three fronts: consumer demand related to tariffs, supply chain issues related to tariffs, and strategic questions.
All businesses always face the third. That's what business is: a rolling series of strategic decisions that are either working or not.
But the first two are where we're finding the bulk of companies and analysts spending the bulk of their time. And neither the impact on consumer spending nor the impact on business investment from tariffs is easily quantifiable right now.
Making the most pressing economic question facing companies and their workers unanswerable, while the most persistent economic questions facing companies and their workers get put on the back burner.
Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports:
Read more here.
US stocks were mixed on Thursday following a two-day rally as traders weighed the latest Trump administration tariff developments and China denied deal talks were taking place with Washington.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.4%. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose above the flatline, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.2%.
Stocks have rallied over the past two days in hopes that some sort of deal between the US with China will come to fruition, or tariffs on the country would be reduced substantially. On Thursday however China's Ministry of Commerce indicated Beijing was not negotiating a deal with Washington.
The trade war is already impacting company outlooks. American Airlines (AAL) pulled its full-year guidance on Thursday, saying it intends to post it when the economic outlook becomes clearer.
Meanwhile PepsiCo cut its guidance. The beverage company now sees no earnings growth in 2025. It previously expected low-single-digit percentage growth.
An emerging theme in the US economy is the idea of businesses and consumers front-running tariffs by pulling forward spending to get ahead of price increases.
Thursday morning's durable goods order release from the Census Bureau might be the best example yet.
Durable goods orders rose 9.2% in March from the previous month, blowing away forecasts for a 2% rise as one of the biggest increases in aircraft orders on record pushed the number above consensus.
Aircraft orders rose 190% in March, which Oliver Allen, senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said was "likely driven in part by worries about tariffs."
Excluding defense spending, durable goods orders rose 10.4%. In Allen's view, however, the balance of Thursday's report showed, "[the main measures of underlying orders were relatively weak in March."
And with tariffs likely to further upset the ability for businesses to commit to new, large outlays, "Far weaker capital goods orders and equipment investment surely lie ahead, however, over the next few quarters.
"The rush of pre-tariff activity probably now will unwind sharply, policy uncertainty is so intense that many new investment projects will be paused or shelved, and capital goods exports to China will nosedive."
In markets, sentiment spurs action, Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland wrote in today's Morning Brief. And the current levels of pessimism owing to tariff-related uncertainty may be approaching a sentiment washout. Myles writes:
Read more here.
Procter & Gamble (PG) stock fell 1% after the Tide detergent maker lowered its sales and profit forecast amid a pullback in consumer spending.
"We expect uncertainty to continue", P&G CEO Jon Moeller told Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi.
A P&G spokesperson said US shoppers slowed their spending in February and March, per Reuters, as President Trump's tariffs raised recession concerns. The company did not disclose the extent of the impact it expects from tariffs.
Procter & Gamble now expects total net sales for 2025 to remain flat from last year, down from 2% to 4% growth. This, coupled with Pepsi's (PEP) guidance cut, suggests signs of stress from consumer goods companies amid tariff-fueled uncertainty, though consumer staples are generally seen as safe havens during economic downturns.
Read more here.
American Airlines (AAL) pulled its full-year guidance on Thursday, saying it intends to post it when the economic outlook becomes clearer.
"The company is withdrawing its full-year guidance at this time. American intends to provide a full-year update as the economic outlook becomes clearer," the airline said in its quarterly results release.
The guidance pull from American comes after its peer Delta (DAL) did not affirm its full-year forecast earlier this month, citing headwinds from the economic uncertainty surrounding the trade war. Meanwhile, United (UAL) recently took the unusual step of issuing two profit scenarios.
On Thursday morning, American posted first quarter revenue of $12.6 billion versus expectations of $12.53 billion. The airline's adjusted loss per share came in at $0.59 versus a loss of $0.69 expected by Wall Street.
Economic data: Initial jobless claims (week ending April 19); Chicago Fed national activity index (March); Durable goods orders (March preliminary); Capital goods orders (March preliminary); Existing home sales (March); Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity
Earnings: Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), American Airlines (AAL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Intel (INTC), Merck (MRK), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Nokia (NOK), PepsiCo (PEP), Skechers (SKX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), T-Mobile (TMUS), Union Pacific (UNP), Valero (VLO)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
Trump pushing markets around isn't only about Trump
Tariffs latest: China calls US trade negotiation claims 'groundless'
Chinese customers are rejecting new jets due to tariffs
Why Tesla's upcoming cheaper EV is going to look very familiar
American Airlines pulls 2025 outlook amid tariff uncertainty
PepsiCo cuts annual profit forecast amid trade war turmoil
Battered and bruised dollar has further to fall: Goldman
Jefferies: US stocks' best days are behind, sees more losses ahead
The market bears can add a rare earnings warning from PepsiCo (PEP) to their arsenal against the bulls.
Having covered PepsiCo for about 15 years, I can tell you it's not the norm that they cut guidance. The company takes guidance super seriously, maybe too seriously.
Yet here we are in a trade war, and PepsiCo now sees no earnings growth in 2025. It previously expected low-single-digit percentage growth.
Couple this with the Chipotle (CMG) warning last night, and you get a picture of a consumer starting to retrench due to tariff-related economic concerns.
Chipotle's (CMG) stock dropped 3% on Thursday after its first quarter report missed expectations and it lowered its 2025 forecast.
Yahoo Finance's senior reporter Brooke DiPalma looks into how the burrito maker has performed in a slowing economy:
Read more here.
IBM (IBM) shares fell over 7% on Thursday after the company revealed that 15 of its government contracts were canceled under a cost-cutting drive by the Trump administration.
Reuters reports:
The $100 million setback overshadowed its better-than-expected first-quarter results and an upbeat revenue forecast, adding to investor uncertainty despite IBM's efforts to boost transparency and maintain growth targets.
The federal consulting businesses of Big Blue's rivals, such as Accenture, have also taken a hit from belt-tightening efforts by the US administration and its Department of Government Efficiency.
The impacted contracts amounted to about $100 million, which was less than 1% of the order backlog in IBM's consulting unit, finance chief James Kavanaugh told Reuters on Wednesday.
Read more here.
Gold (GC=F) bounced back after its biggest single-day drop of the year, as traders weighed conflicting messages from the US on China tariffs.
Bloomberg News reports:
Read more here.
The dollar (DX=F) pulled back from a recent rebound late Thursday as President Donald Trump walked back his unsubstantiated threats to remove Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell from office.
Reuters reports:
After dipping below 140 yen on Tuesday, the dollar has rebounded off major chart support and was last at 143.25 yen on Thursday.
It caught an extra boost when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. did not have a specific currency target in mind, ahead of talks with his Japanese counterpart. Bessent has also said the current de-facto embargo on U.S.-China trade was unsustainable, while cautioning that the U.S. would not move first in lowering its levies of more than 100% on Chinese goods.
The dollar has recovered from a three-and-a-half-year low of $1.1572 per euro, but encountered a little selling in the Asia morning to steady around $1.1338.
Read more here.
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- Business Insider
Trump's former Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, says the US-China deal is still far from comprehensive
President Donald Trump's former Secretary of Commerce doesn't think the trade deal between the US and China is close to being "done." "It looks as though they made a fairly modest deal, mostly focusing on export controls on both the US side and the China side," Wilbur Ross, who was part of the first Trump administration, told Business Insider. "So it's far from a comprehensive deal." On Wednesday morning, Trump said on Truth Social that the deal with China is now "done." "It seems more or less to be reiterating the deal they thought they had set a few weeks ago," Ross said of the deal. China and the US reached a trade framework agreement on Tuesday, after their respective negotiation teams held two-day talks in London. The current Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, is part of the US trade talk team. "Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China," Trump added in all caps in the post. "Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!)." Ross said that the deal has not addressed many important issues, including intellectual property, so it may be too soon to call this a victory. "The Chinese side has been very careful to say it still needs to be approved by President Xi," said Ross. "When we negotiated with the China side last time, it wasn't unusual for the trade negotiators to agree to something, and then they would go back to Xi, and he would not go along with it." This year in duties on imports from China reached up to 245% on some goods. On May 14, many of the tariffs on China were reduced to 30% for 90 days, with a deadline of August 12. A 10% baseline tariff is still in place on the rest of the world, while additional higher tariffs on 75 countries have been paused until July 9. Ross said that it would be important to complete at least a few deals with key trading partners before the tariff pause on 75 countries expires. "I think that will help clear the air for the stock market because it'll start to show a direction and that there is a way to get all these things resolved," he said. "It's very important from a bond market point of view and from an equity market point of view."


CNBC
17 minutes ago
- CNBC
Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 ends three-day win streak: Live updates
Traders wait for Voyager Technologies to begin trading during the company's IPO at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 11, 2025. Brendan McDermid | Reuters Stock futures were relatively unchanged on Wednesday after the S&P 500 saw its first negative session in four. S&P 500 futures traded down by 0.1%, along with Nasdaq 100 futures . Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 44 points, or 0.1%. In extended trading, shares of Oracle surged more than 7% after its fiscal fourth-quarter results beat on the top and bottom lines. The company also indicated more cloud growth ahead, saying in a statement that cloud infrastructure revenue will rise by more than 70% in fiscal 2026, up from a 50% growth rate in the prior fiscal year. Wednesday marked a losing session on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 snapping its three-day win streak, as did the Nasdaq Composite . But the moves were slight. The broad market index fell about 0.3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. While the day's losses put the S&P 500 a bit further away from reaching a new record high, the index is also still just more than 2% below its late February record. Those moves come after consumer prices rose less than expected in May, as the consumer price index increased 0.1% for the month. That's less than the Dow Jones forecast for 0.2%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased less than expected. "I don't think the market has a lot of faith that we're not going to see at least a little bit higher inflation," Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" Wednesday. "With all the things going on, the economy slowing, earnings growth likely to slow, lots of trade negotiations to still work through, is there really a good reason to take a run at the record high? I don't know about that. It makes a lot of sense to me that we'd be choppy and maybe see a little downside here." Investors are now looking ahead to May's reading of the producer price index, due out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting the index to show a gain of 0.2% for the period. Subtracting out food and energy, core PPI is expected to show growth of 0.3% on the month. The Street is also waiting for more developments on trade, especially between the U.S. and China, as talks between the two countries have been a focal point this week. While officials reached an agreement in London, the deal still awaits approval from U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump said in a post on Truth Social earlier Wednesday that "WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%." However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later said that U.S. levies on goods from China won't change from their current levels. Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran will also be in focus. U.S. crude oil futures jumped more than 4% on Wednesday after Trump expressed doubt that the two countries could reach a nuclear deal.


Politico
17 minutes ago
- Politico
IRA incentive boosters take to the airwaves
Presented by Recycled Materials Association With Daniel Lippman AD BLITZ: Advocacy groups and trade associations continue pouring money into advertising to support various priorities in the reconciliation bill. Two new campaigns launched this week to support the Inflation Reduction Act's clean energy incentives alone. — They include a six-figure ad blitz from Advanced Energy United, a coalition made up of energy stakeholders and tech companies that is targeting Republican senators the group sees as winnable on the issue of protecting the IRA tax credits. — The digital campaign, the details of which were shared exclusively with PI, will target constituents of Sens. Todd Young (Ind.), Tim Scott (S.C.), Dave McCormick (Pa.), Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Jerry Moran (Kan.) with display and Facebook ads touting the economic benefits of the IRA incentives in their respective states. The ads will also run inside the Beltway to target Hill staffers. — The ad buy will be accompanied by a letter campaign from local energy companies urging senators like Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to protect the clean energy incentives. It follows a similar campaign on the House side by the coalition, whose members include NRG, Microsoft, Blink, Rivian, Oracle, Carrier and Ford. — A second new campaign to save the IRA provisions is focused on persuading President Donald Trump (or at least his inner circle). The $2 million ad buy from GOP-led Built for America will run over the next three weeks on platforms closely watched by Trump and his allies, including on Fox News, Truth Social and various conservative podcasts. — The 30-second spot borrows Trump's own language to make the case against gutting the tax credits, contending that 'Trump country is booming' thanks to the incentives, which are helping put 'America first.' — The Association of Equipment Manufacturers is also out with a new nationwide ad buy supporting the reconciliation bill's tax extensions specifically, with a minute-long ad arguing that the bill would keep equipment manufacturers in America by providing certainty to make investments. Happy Wednesday and welcome to PI. Send tips. You can add me on Signal, email me at coprysko@ and be sure to follow me on X: @caitlinoprysko. FIRST IN PI — FLANAGAN'S CORPORATE MONEY FLIP-FLOP: Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who's running for an open U.S. Senate seat, has made rejecting corporate money a major part of her campaign platform. But she accepted millions of dollars in corporate cash on behalf of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association when she was its chair, Daniel reports. — Flanagan's launch video said she wouldn't take 'one dime from corporate interests.' In April, she said in a video on X that 'taking corporate money is a choice' and she is 'not taking money from corporations and I never will.' — But Flanagan helped raise more than $2 million in corporate money last year when she was chair of the DLGA. That included half a million dollars from the pharmaceutical industry, almost $300,000 from the tech industry and around $100,000 from the tobacco industry, according to a PI analysis of FEC records. — And even as Flanagan says her campaign won't take corporate cash, NOTUS reported last week that DLGA plans to spend big to support lieutenant governors like Flanagan who are running in open primaries and has already maxed out in direct contributions to her campaign — meaning that at least some of that money could have come from corporations. — Flanagan is facing Rep. Angie Craig (D) in the campaign to fill the Senate seat of Sen. Tina Smith (D), who's retiring. Before joining Congress, Craig, as part of her private-sector job, ran a corporate PAC that gave to many prominent Republicans. Last cycle, she was the 12th-largest recipient among House Democrats of money from corporate PACs, taking $1.3 million from them during that time, according to OpenSecrets. — 'Peggy is the only candidate in this race to reject corporate PAC money,' campaign spokesperson Alexandra Fetissoff said in a statement to PI. 'This is a transparent attempt to distract from Angie Craig's continued funding from big corporations like Elon Musk's SpaceX. People want leaders who are willing to take a stand and make the choice to only be beholden to their constituents. Only Peggy has made that choice.' QUIGLEY CHIEF HEADED DOWNTOWN: Allison Jarus has left the Hill after 12 years to join Arnold & Porter as a policy adviser. Jarus spent the past decade working for Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), most recently as his chief of staff. — Jarus helped handle Quigley's work on the House Appropriations Committee and was a key architect of the 2021 legislation to increase access for experimental treatments for ALS patients. Before joining Quigley's office, she worked for Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) and former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio). FLYING SOLO: 'Lobbyists usually run in herds at bipartisan firms, but a slice of K Street takes a lone-wolf approach to the influence game,' Bloomberg's Kate Ackley reports. 'Those who opt to go it alone say it makes for a leaner, more nimble operation, reduces potential client conflicts, and gives them control over how they operate the business.' — 'In good times, a single-lobbyist enterprise can rake in big money that the rainmaker doesn't have to share. But risks abound. … Solo lobbying firms are more vulnerable to the whims of elections, and often rise or fall on which policy fights are hot at the moment. The presidential transition and flip in control of the Senate can ripple into K Street bottom lines, with one-person firms especially susceptible.' — Still, 'more than 50 solo shops reported revenue of $1 million or more last year, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis of federal lobbying disclosures, accounting for nearly $80 million in fees.' INSIDERS, TRADING: 'As markets tanked in the wake of President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs in early April, members of Congress and their families made hundreds of stock trades, shining a spotlight on a controversial practice that some lawmakers have pushed to ban,' according to the Wall Street Journal's Katy Stech Ferek, Jack Gillum, James Benedict and Gunjan Banerji. — 'From April 2, when Trump launched the sweeping tariffs, to April 8, the day before he paused many of them, more than a dozen House lawmakers and their family members made more than 700 stock trades, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of disclosure filings.' FLY-IN SZN: A handful of health care groups headed to the Hill today, including the Children's Hospital Association, which focused on urging lawmakers to strengthen Medicaid, grow the pediatric health care workforce and address the mental health crisis among youth. Kidney Care Partners also trekked up Pennsylvania Avenue to lobby for improved access and coverage for those with kidney failure. — Advocates with the American Telemedicine Association were in town as well to advocate for the industry's top priorities, which include making permanent various telehealth permissions and expanding coverage for telehealth services, including prescription digital therapeutics and virtual medical nutritionists. The trade group was slated to meet with more than 40 offices on the Hill, including leaders in the House and Senate and on key committees. — And more than 1,000 homebuilders were fanning out across Washington for a fly-in focused on several priorities of the National Association of Home Builders, including loosening energy standards for new homes and addressing workforce shortages. — Tax policy was also expected to be front of mind in the group's more than 250 meetings on the Hill and with the Trump administration: NAHB is pushing for an expanded low-income housing tax credit, fewer SALT cap restrictions and the preservation of clean energy tax credits. — Leaders from the convenience services industry will be on the Hill tomorrow, but the National Automatic Merchandising Association will kick off the fun with a pop-up micro market at tonight's Congressional Baseball Game. SPOTTED at a reception hosted by the Alpine Group celebrating the recent opening of the firm's new Dallas-Fort Worth outpost, per a tipster: Keenan Austin Reed, Barry Brown, Rhod Shaw and Greg Walden of Alpine Group; Pat Shortridge of TrailRunner International; Stewart Hall of PPHC; Reps. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas), Marc Veasey (R-Texas), Brandon Gill (R-Texas) and Jodey Arrington (R-Texas); Katie Vincentz and Russell Thomasson of Arrington's office; Andrew Leppert of Gill's office; Ryan Dilworth and Brayden Woods of Van Duyne's office; Tasia Jackson of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' office; Mark Longoria of Rep. Michael Cloud's (R-Texas) office; Matt Esguerra of Rep. Lance Gooden's (R-Texas) office; Karen Navarro of Rep. Monica De La Cruz's (R-Texas) office; Raven Reeder of Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton's (D-D.C.) office; Hayden Upchurch of Rep. Nathaniel Moran's (R-Texas) office; Jianna Covarelli of Cornyn's office; Emily Stipe of Vistra Corp.; Nick D'Angelo of Eaton Corp.; and Drew Wayne of Siemens. Jobs report — Doug Sellers has joined the advisory board at BGR Group. He's a senior counselor at Palantir and was a special assistant to Trump during his first term and served as White House associate staff secretary. — Adam Minehardt is joining Chainlink Labs as head of public policy. He was previously a principal at FS Vector. — Connor Rabb has joined the National Association of Manufacturers as senior director of tax policy. He was previously a legislative assistant for Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa). — Sabrina Singh is joining Seven Letter as a partner. She most recently was deputy press secretary at the Defense Department and is a Kamala Harris alum. — Tom Corry is joining Rubrum Advising to launch a government affairs practice at the firm. He was most recently managing director of Corry Advisors and was previously assistant secretary for public affairs at HHS and senior adviser to former Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma. — Jennifer Short has joined Capital Park Partners as an adviser. She was most recently a senior military assistant to the secretary of Defense in both the Biden and Trump administrations and is an Air Force veteran. — Sam Varie is joining the Australian Embassy as U.S. media and external relations manager. Varie was previously communications director for Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.). — Karina Lubell will be a partner at Brunswick Group. She previously led the competition policy and advocacy section at DOJ's Antitrust Division. — Ashley Moir has launched Ashley Moir Media, a PR company with booking services, media training and comms strategy. She most recently was director of national broadcast operations at Deploy/US and is a former senior booker at Fox News. — Gopal Das Varma is now a vice president at Cornerstone Research. He previously was vice president at Charles River Associates and is a DOJ Antitrust Division alum. — Allison Rivera will be vice president for government and industry affairs at the National Grain and Feed Association. She most recently was executive director of government affairs at the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. — Steven Ferenczy has joined the American Council of Life Insurers as assistant vice president for paid leave policy and implementation. He was previously a first vice president and compliance consultant at Alliant. — Richard Johnson has joined OpenAI as its national security risk mitigation lead, Morning Defense reports. He was previously DOD deputy assistant secretary for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy. — Joseph Humire is now a deputy assistant secretary of Defense for policy, per MD. He was previously executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society and a senior fellow at the America First Policy Institute and Heritage Foundation. New Joint Fundraisers Team Coughlin (Coughlin for Congress, One Country, One Destiny PAC) New PACs AMERICANS READY TO WORK PAC (Super PAC) Cohabitate PAC (PAC) Empire State Patriots PAC (PAC) PATIENTS RISING PAC (PAC) Reengineer NJ PAC Inc. (Super PAC) New Lobbying REGISTRATIONS Alston & Bird LLP: Performance Health Atlas Crossing LLC: Trinity University Capitol Counsel LLC: Boviet Solar USa Capitol Resources, LLC: The Federation Of Korean Industries Coreweave, Inc.: Coreweave, Inc. Dc Advocacy, LLC: Konecranes Finland Corp. Dc Advocacy, LLC: Logistec Marine Services Ulc Fgs Global (US) LLC (Fka Fgh Holdings LLC): Six Continents Hotels, Inc. Franklin Square Group, LLC: Fiat Chain Holdings LLC Holland & Knight LLP: Wood Mackenzie Invariant LLC: Oldendorff Carriers USa, Inc. King & Spalding LLP: Lifegift Kyowa Kirin, Inc: Kyowa Kirin, Inc Leavitt Partners, LLC: Orchard Therapeutics North America Mercury Public Affairs, LLC: Novant Health, Inc. Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP: Flashpoint Intelligence Polsinelli Pc: Clairity, Inc. Resolution Public Affairs, LLC: Jp Morgan Chase Holdings Rutledge Policy Group, LLC: Brownstein (Bhfs, LLP) Obo Apollo Global Management Sorini, Samet & Associates, LLC: Popp Forest Products Inc. Stapleton & Associates, LLC: Intellisense Systems, Inc. Steptoe LLP: Early Warning Services, LLC Stoick Consulting, LLC: Resident Home, Inc. Sullivan Strategies LLC (Fka Sb Capitol Solutions): Vontier Business Services, LLC New Lobbying Terminations Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP: Vector Group Ltd