The Bulletin June 9, 2025
The rundown: After months of lagging poll numbers and internal party anxieties, Democrats are seeing signs of a rebound. Here's what the new polling reveals.
Why it matters: YouGov's generic congressional ballot tracker, which tests which party voters would choose in a congressional election, shows that the Democrats are 2 points ahead of the Republicans, with 44 percent to the GOP's 42 percent. That is the biggest lead the Democrats have held over the Republicans in the poll since August. Between October 2024 and April 2025, the two parties were practically tied in the poll. But since April, support for the Democrats has started to trend upward, with their lead over the Republicans reaching 2 points this week. The upward trajectory for the Democrats coincides with Trump introducing his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April. The policy move rattled markets, prompting a sharp sell-off before an eventual recovery.
Read more in-depth coverage:
Trump Eliminates Democrats' Polling Advantage in Key Area
TL/DR: YouGov's tracker also shows a downward trajectory in the Democratic Party's popularity, dropping from 40 percent favorability in December to 38 percent in May.
What happens now? Democratic strategists say the party is beginning to gain momentum by aggressively countering Donald Trump's policies and offering a message of stability amid chaos. Former Obama adviser Peter Loge pointed to what he sees as the deep unpopularity of Trump's actual policies—even among some who support his rhetoric.
Deeper reading Democrat Support is Finally Bouncing Back
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