Stocks Set to Open Higher Amid Hopes for More U.S. Tariff Exemptions, Economic Data and Earnings on Tap

Globe and Mail

15-04-2025

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are up +0.33%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are up +0.25% this morning amid hopes for more U.S. tariff exemptions after President Donald Trump floated a possible pause in auto tariffs.
President Trump stated on Monday that he is considering possible temporary exemptions for his tariffs on imported vehicles and parts to provide auto companies additional time to set up U.S. manufacturing. 'I'm looking at something to help car companies with it. They're switching to parts that were made in Canada, Mexico and other places, and they need a little bit of time, because they're going to make them here,' Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. At the same time, the U.S. moved ahead with plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports by launching trade investigations led by the Commerce Department.
Investors now await U.S. economic data, quarterly reports from more big banks, and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
In yesterday's trading session, Wall Street's major indexes closed in the green. Apple (AAPL) rose over +2% following a U.S. tariff exemption for a range of consumer electronics. Also, automobile stocks gained ground after President Trump said he was 'looking at something to help some of the car companies,' with Ford (F) climbing more than +4% and General Motors (GM) rising over +3%. In addition, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) advanced more than +4% after NATO acquired an AI-powered military system from the company. On the bearish side, DaVita (DVA) slid about -3% after disclosing a ransomware incident that encrypted certain parts of its network.
'The worst may be over, but the coast is not clear. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and further concessions over the weekend lessen the near-term probability of a recession, but uncertainty remains high, the Fed is on hold, and back-end rates are a headwind,' said Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Monday that he anticipates the impact of tariffs on inflation to be temporary. Still, Waller described the new tariff policy as 'one of the biggest shocks to affect the U.S. economy in many decades.' Should there be a minor tariff impact on prices, rate cuts would 'very much' be considered for the latter half of 2025, he said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 81.0% chance of no rate change and a 19.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at May's monetary policy meeting.
First-quarter corporate earnings season is gathering pace, with investors awaiting reports today from major U.S. banks such as Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) as well as prominent companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and United Airlines Holdings (UAL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists anticipate the export price index to be +0.1% m/m and the import price index to be +0.1% m/m in March, compared to the previous figures of +0.1% m/m and +0.4% m/m, respectively.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index will also be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -12.80 in April, compared to -20.00 in March.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.360%, down -0.09%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.22% this morning as investors digest fresh earnings and economic data as well as weigh ever-changing U.S. tariff plans. Automobile stocks led the gains on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he is considering some short-term tariff exemptions to support car companies. At the same time, luxury stocks slumped, with Lvmh (MC.FP) plunging over -6% after the group reported weaker-than-expected Q1 sales. On the economic front, data from the Office for National Statistics released on Tuesday showed that wage growth in the U.K. accelerated in the first few months of the new year, indicating that persistently high inflation will likely remain a concern for the Bank of England. Separately, the ZEW Economic Research Institute reported that German investor morale plunged in April, hitting the lowest level since July 2023 amid U.S. President Trump's tariff chaos. In addition, data showed that the Eurozone's monthly industrial production rose much more than expected in February, suggesting that firms are stockpiling imports ahead of the implementation of tariffs in the U.S. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's rate-setting meeting on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to lower the deposit rate by another 25 basis points to 2.25% as U.S. tariffs continue to threaten growth. In other corporate news, Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson (ERICB.S.DX) climbed more than +5% after the telecoms equipment maker posted stronger-than-expected Q1 core earnings.
U.K.'s Average Earnings ex Bonus, U.K.'s Unemployment Rate, France's CPI, Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and Eurozone's Industrial Production data were released today.
U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus stood at 5.9% in the three months to February, weaker than expectations of 6.0%.
U.K. Unemployment Rate was 4.4% in the three months to February, in line with expectations.
The French March CPI came in at +0.2% m/m and +0.8% y/y, in line with expectations.
The German April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index arrived at -14.0, weaker than expectations of 10.6.
Eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index stood at -18.5, weaker than expectations of 13.2.
Eurozone February Industrial Production has been reported at +1.1% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and -0.8% y/y.
Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.15%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.84%.
China's Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher today as investors digested the latest trade-related developments between the U.S. and China and geared up for the nation's first-quarter GDP data. Pharmaceutical and bank stocks outperformed on Tuesday. At the same time, chip stocks slumped. Sentiment remained shaky as the U.S. Commerce Department initiated a national security investigation into semiconductor imports, a sector heavily dependent on Asian, particularly Chinese, supply chains. The move could result in potential tariffs on the sector. Still, China remains unfazed by U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on semiconductors and all electrical products, with customs officials stating at a press conference that 'the sky won't fall' for the country's exports. Meanwhile, Yan Wang, chief emerging markets and China strategist at Alpine Macro, said in a note, 'The U.S.-China tariff situation is highly fluid, with changes occurring almost by the hour.' There remains considerable uncertainty in the near term, so aggressive risk-taking in Chinese stocks is not warranted, he added. In other news, UBS joined a wave of China growth downgrades with the most pessimistic projection among major banks, forecasting the economy will grow only 3.4% this year as U.S. tariffs stifle exports. In corporate news, Contemporary Amperex Technology rose over +1% after reporting a 33% year-over-year increase in Q1 profit. Investor focus is now on Wednesday's release of China's first-quarter GDP data.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump about potential tariff exemptions for carmakers further eased concerns about escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners. Automobile stocks led the gains on Tuesday after Trump said he was weighing tariff exemptions on imported vehicles and auto parts. Bank stocks also gained ground. Still, caution remained as the U.S. Commerce Department initiated a national security investigation into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to upcoming trade talks between Washington and Tokyo, which public broadcaster NHK reported are scheduled for April 17th. Japan's top trade negotiator, Akazawa Ryosei, is set to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer later this week. In other news, Kenzo Yamamoto, the former Bank of Japan executive, said that the central bank is likely to hold off on raising interest rates for the time being due to uncertainties arising from U.S. tariffs that could hurt Japan's economy. 'They will be in a wait-and-see mode for a while,' he said in an interview Monday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -11.46% to 34.45.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Allegro Microsystems (ALGM) tumbled over -12% in pre-market trading after ON Semiconductor withdrew its $6.9 billion takeover offer.
Applied Digital (APLD) plunged more than -10% in pre-market trading after reporting weaker-than-expected FQ3 revenue.
Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - April 15th
J&J (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), PNC Financial (PNC), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Omnicom (OMC), JB Hunt (JBHT), Albertsons (ACI), Hancock Whitney (HWC), Fulton (FULT), Equity Bancshares (EQBK), TechTarget (TTGT), Pioneer Pow (PPSI).