US strikes may have set back Iran nuclear programme by just months, sources say
A satellite view showing the site of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment plant, after the US struck the nuclear facility on June 21. PHOTO: REUTERS
US strikes may have set back Iran nuclear programme by just months, sources say
WASHINGTON - A preliminary US intelligence assessment has determined that US strikes over the weekend on Iranian nuclear facilities have set back Tehran's programme by only a matter of months, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The initial report was prepared by the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Pentagon's main intelligence arm and one of 18 US intelligence agencies, said two of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss classified matters.
The classified assessment is at odds with the statements of President Donald Trump and high-ranking US officials - including Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. They have said the weekend strikes, which used a combination of bunker-busting bombs and more conventional weapons, essentially eliminated Iran's nuclear programme.
Mr Trump has said the attacks were necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran denies it is seeking such a weapon and says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.
Mr Hegseth on June 22 said that the strikes had 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear ambitions, while Mr Trump said Iran's crucial nuclear sites had been 'completely and fully obliterated.'
Assessing the damage at the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites is expected to be a difficult task, and the DIA is not the only agency tasked with the job. One source said the assessment was not universally accepted and had generated significant disagreement.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US did not know the extent of the damage yet.
Still, the initial assessment indicated the strikes may not have been nearly as successful as the Trump administration has claimed.
One of the sources said Iran's enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated, and in fact the country's nuclear programme may have been set back only a month or two.
The Pentagon disputed the notion that the damage to Iran's nuclear programme was minor, though it did not dispute that the DIA assessment exists.
'Based on everything we have seen - and I've seen it all - our bombing campaign obliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons,' Mr Hegseth said, in a statement provided to Reuters.
'Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target - and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.'
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
But in a statement to CNN, which first reported the intelligence assessment, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the conclusion was incorrect.
'This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong,' Ms Leavitt said, according to CNN.
'Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.'
Initial military assessments can change as more information comes to light and it is not uncommon for opinions to vary across different US intelligence agencies.
Democrats have previously said Mr Trump's claims that the weekend strikes eliminated or seriously set back Iran's nuclear program were not yet backed by evidence.
'There's zero evidence that I've seen that the nuclear programme was completely and totally obliterated as Donald Trump has claimed,' House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on June 23.
Classified briefings on the matter for members of the House of Representatives and Senate were cancelled on June 24. REUTERS
Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Straits Times
9 minutes ago
- Straits Times
Fragile ceasefire holding, Trump envoy says peace talks with Iran 'promising'
People gesture as they attend a gathering to support Iran's Armed Forces, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 24, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV/ISTANBUL - The ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump between Iran and Israel appeared to be holding on Wednesday a day after both countries signalled that their air war had ended, at least for now. Each side claimed victory on Tuesday after 12 days of war, which the U.S. joined with airstrikes in support of Israel to take out Iran's uranium-enrichment facilities. Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, said late on Tuesday that talks between the United States and Iran were "promising" and that Washington was hopeful for a long-term peace deal. "We are already talking to each other, not just directly but also through interlocutors. I think that the conversations are promising. We are hopeful that we can have a long-term peace agreement that resurrects Iran," Witkoff said in an interview on Fox News' "The Ingraham Angle" show. "Now it's for us to sit down with the Iranians and get to a comprehensive peace agreement, and I am very confident that we are going to achieve that," he added. Trump said over the weekend that U.S. stealth bombers had "obliterated" Iran's programme to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its enrichment activities are for civilian purposes only. But Trump's claim appeared to be contradicted by an initial report by one of his administration's intelligence agencies, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the sources said Iran's enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated, and the country's nuclear programme, much of which is buried deep underground, may have been set back only a month or two. The White House said the intelligence assessment was "flat out wrong." According to the report, which was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities, but did not collapse underground buildings, said one of the people familiar with its findings. Some centrifuges remained intact, the Washington Post said, citing an unnamed person familiar with the report. Trump's administration told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday that its weekend strikes had "degraded" Iran's nuclear programme, short of Trump's assertion that the facilities had been "obliterated." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that the attack had removed the nuclear threat against Israel and he was determined to thwart any attempt by Tehran to revive its weapons program. "We have removed two immediate existential threats to us: the threat of nuclear annihilation and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles," he said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country had successfully ended the war in what he called a "great victory," according to Iranian media. Pezeshkian also told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Tehran was ready to resolve differences with the U.S., according to official news agency IRNA. Israel launched the surprise air war on June 13, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and killing top military commanders in the worst blow to the Islamic Republic since the 1980s war with Iraq. Iran, which denies trying to build nuclear weapons, retaliated with barrages of missiles on Israeli military sites and cities. RESTRICTIONS LIFTED Israel's military lifted restrictions on activity across the country at 8 p.m. local time (1700 GMT) on Tuesday, and officials said Ben Gurion Airport, the country's main airport near Tel Aviv, had reopened. Iran's airspace likewise will be reopened, state-affiliated Nournews reported. Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, finding some respite after plummeting in the last two sessions, as investors assessed the stability of the ceasefire and the diminished prospect of an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The truce appeared fragile: Both Israel and Iran took hours to acknowledge they had accepted the ceasefire and accused each other of violating it. Trump scolded both sides but aimed especially stinging criticism at Israel, telling the close U.S. ally to "calm down now." He later said Israel called off further attacks at his command. Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, said he told his U.S. counterpart, Pete Hegseth, that his country would respect the ceasefire unless Iran violated it. Pezeshkian likewise said Iran would honour the ceasefire as long as Israel did, according to Iranian media. Israeli armed forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir said a "significant chapter" of the conflict had concluded but the campaign against Iran was not over. He said the military would refocus on its war against Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza. Iranian authorities said 610 people were killed in their country by Israeli strikes and 4,746 injured. Iran's retaliatory bombardment killed 28 people in Israel, the first time its air defences were penetrated by large numbers of Iranian missiles. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff says US-Iran talks are 'promising'
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff speaks to members of the news media with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt outside of the West Wing at the White House in Washington, U.S., March 6, 2025. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo WASHINGTON - U.S. President Donald Trump's Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff said on Tuesday that talks between the United States and Iran were "promising" and that Washington was hopeful for a long-term peace deal. KEY QUOTES "We are already talking to each other, not just directly but also through interlocutors. I think that the conversations are promising. We are hopeful that we can have a long-term peace agreement that resurrects Iran," Witkoff said in an interview on Fox News' "The Ingraham Angle" show. "Now its for us to sit down with the Iranians and get to a comprehensive peace agreement, and I am very confident that we are going to achieve that," he added. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Since April, Iran and the U.S. have held indirect talks aimed at finding a new diplomatic solution regarding Iran's nuclear program. Tehran says its program is peaceful and Washington says it wants to ensure Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon. Trump announced a ceasefire on Monday between U.S. ally Israel and its regional rival Iran which was aimed at ending their air war that began on June 13 when Israel struck Iran. The conflict had raised alarms in a region that was already on edge since the start of Israel's war in Gaza in October 2023. CONTEXT Israel is the only country in the Middle East widely believed to have nuclear weapons and says its war against Iran aimed to prevent Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapons. Iran is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while Israel is not. The U.S. struck Iran's nuclear sites over the weekend and Iran targeted a U.S. base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation, before Trump announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire on social media. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
AsiaOne
an hour ago
- AsiaOne
Nato leaders set to back Trump defence spending goal at Hague summit, World News
THE HAGUE — Nato leaders gather in The Hague on Wednesday (June 25) for a summit tailor-made for US President Donald Trump, with European allies hoping a pledge to hike defence spending will prompt him to dispel doubts about his commitment to the alliance. The summit is expected to endorse a higher defence spending goal of 5 per cent of GDP — a response to a demand by Trump and to Europeans' fears that Russia poses an increasingly direct threat to their security following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Nato officials are hoping the conflict between Israel and Iran, and the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites at the weekend, will not overshadow the gathering, hosted by alliance Secretary General Mark Rutte in his home city. Trump has threatened not to protect Nato members if they fail to meet spending targets and he raised doubts about his commitment again on his way to the summit by avoiding directly endorsing the alliance's Article 5 mutual defence clause. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said there were "numerous definitions" of the clause. "I'm committed to saving lives. I'm committed to life and safety. And I'm going to give you an exact definition when I get there," he said. The new target — to be achieved over the next 10 years — is a big increase on the current goal of 2 per cent of GDP, although it will be measured differently. It would amount to hundreds of billions of dollars in extra annual spending. Countries would spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on core defence — such as troops and weapons — and 1.5 per cent on broader defence-related measures such as cyber security, protecting pipelines and adapting roads and bridges to handle military vehicles. All Nato members have backed a statement enshrining the target, although Spain declared it does not need to meet the goal. Madrid says it can meet its military commitments to Nato by spending much less — a view disputed by Rutte. But Rutte accepted a diplomatic fudge with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez as part of his intense efforts to give Trump a diplomatic victory and make the summit go smoothly. Unusual insight into summit diplomacy Trump gave an unusual insight into those efforts on Tuesday by posting a private message in which Rutte lavished praise on him and congratulated him on "decisive action in Iran". "You will achieve something no American president in decades could get done," Rutte told Trump. "Europe is going to pay in a big way as they should, and it will be your win." To satisfy Trump, Rutte has also kept the summit and its final statement short and focused on the spending pledge. The text is expected to cite Russia as a threat and reaffirm allies' support for Ukraine but not dwell on those issues, given Trump has taken a more conciliatory stance towards Moscow and been less supportive of Kyiv than his predecessor, Joe Biden. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had to settle for a seat at the pre-summit dinner on Tuesday evening rather than a seat at the main meeting on Wednesday, although Trump said he would probably meet with Zelenskiy separately. Zelenskiy's plans for a meeting with Trump in Canada last week were dashed when the US president left a G7 summit early, citing a need to focus on the crisis in the Middle East. Zelenskiy and his aides have said they want to talk to Trump about buying US weapons including Patriot missile defence systems and increasing pressure on Moscow through tougher sanctions. The Kremlin accused Nato of being on a path of rampant militarisation and portraying Russia as a "fiend of hell" in order to justify its big increase in defence spending. [[nid:719217]]
