Analysis: Why Republicans can't hide from their Epstein problem

CNN

3 days ago

A remarkable scene is playing out in the US House of Representatives on Wednesday: In an effort to avoid votes on releasing files related to Jeffrey Epstein, Republicans are shutting it down early and heading out on a weekslong August recess. Nevermind that the Trump administration promised to release these files, and many Republicans want them to do so.
The day-early dismissal is rather transparently to avoid an issue that Trump wants no part of, buy themselves some time, and maybe even hope the issue just fades away.
But the issue is showing no signs of quieting, with many Trump supporters continuing to press for more transparency over Epstein and the administration taking steps – albeit limited ones – to try to quell the unrest.
Republican Rep. James Comer of Kentucky even predicted to CNN on Tuesday that the files would ultimately come out – either the easy way or the hard way.
So what are the key pressure points here in forcing the issue?
Comer, in his comments to Manu Raju, pointed to the looming threat of a discharge petition. This is an effort spearheaded by fellow Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie that would force the House to vote on releasing the Epstein files if 218 members – from a majority of the 435 districts – sign on.
'The president, by September, will surely have turned over everything,' Comer predicted. 'If things haven't been turned over by then, I think the Massie resolution will pass on the floor.'
Discharge petitions are rarely successful in actually forcing votes on the underlying legislation – only about 4% of the time, according to the Brookings Institution – but the mere threat of them can force leaders to cut deals and act on similar measures.
Thus far, Massie's discharge petition has the support of 12 House Republicans, including him. If nearly all of the House's 212 Democrats signed on, that could be enough to get it to 218.
But there's a real question about whether these Republicans would actually follow through. Discharge petitions are provocative because they undercut leadership – and in this case would undercut Trump.
House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday criticized Massie for teaming with Democrats and not pushing a similar measure under the Biden administration. But he also made clear he was paying attention.
'So do I have some concern about that? I do,' Johnson said. He added: 'So let me just say about Thomas Massie: Could you just accept my Southern 'bless his heart?' OK? I don't know what else to say about it. We're for maximum transparency. We're engaging in that right now, and we don't need political games.'
But these Republicans seem to be saying: We're ready to do this if you don't want to take the easy route. It's up to Johnson and Trump to try and call their bluff – to the extent it's actually a bluff.
The House's move might seem like a great way to get away from the issue – to head home and let things settle.
But home isn't always a great place for such things. We've seen over and over again how lawmakers departing Washington to interact with their constituents can inflame situations.
The most significant recent example is the rise of the tea party starting in 2009, which really got its foothold during the August recess.
Tense scenes also greeted Republicans during the first August recess of Trump's first term in 2017.
Indeed, there is a long tradition of these periods serving as flashpoints, dating back decades.
And just a few months ago, Republicans began urging their members not to hold town halls after some ugly scenes over the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts.
We also know that Democratic-leaning voters are highly motivated right now. A CNN poll released last week showed 72% of them said they were 'extremely' motivated to vote in next year's midterm election; that was much higher than Republican-leaning voters (50%) and suggested Democratic-leaning voters were even more motivated than they were at the tail end of the 2024 presidential election. That suggests they could come out in force.
But it might not just be Democrats forcing the issue over the August recess. Americans overall disapprove of Trump and his administration's Epstein actions by more than 3-to-1 margins in recent polls – by far his worst issue.
The Republican base is unprecedentedly unhappy with Trump's handling of this. Even pro-Trump influencers are pressing for more. And this is an issue that would seem to motivate the most vocal portions of the GOP base.
It remains to be seen how many Republicans will even hold town halls or public events. But if they don't, that will also be telling. And it's not difficult to see this becoming a powder keg.
While the discharge petition effort is being led by some of the more unwieldy members of the House Republican Conference, they're not the only ones pressing for more Epstein information.
Others are pushing for middle-ground congressional action that could at least keep the issue alive or pushing the administration hard to relent.
Comer and Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee are pressing forward with an effort in the House Oversight Committee to subpoena Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell. (The Trump administration signaled Tuesday that Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche will seek a separate interview with Maxwell.)
Both Comer and Burchett suggested they're acting independently of Trump.
'I know that President Trump has said he's going to release all the information they have,' Comer said. (Trump has not, in fact, said this.) 'But we have members that want to go a little bit further, be a little more aggressive.'
Rep. Warren Davidson of Ohio told CNN this week that Bondi, who over-hyped the release of the Epstein files and made a series of curious statements, should be called to testify and explain herself.
Democrats have suggested these kinds of things are half-measures, but they could still add fuel to the fire.
Other prominent Republicans also continue to press the case, including Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
'Release the damn files. It makes no sense to me,' Tillis said Wednesday at an Axios event, adding: 'Either the promise to release the files during the campaign was either overplayed and we got a nothingburger if the files get released, or it's something really disturbing. And that's actually even a more compelling reason to release it.
'And this nonsense – well, we've got to protect the innocent, witnesses, those sorts of things – that's called redactions. We do that all the time,' he added.
Tillis' commentary reinforces that there are just no good answers here for the GOP, shy of a sizable disclosure.
And the North Carolina Republican, who can speak more freely now that he's not running for reelection, also assured this was going nowhere because of that.
'If anybody thinks that this is going to go away because the House left a day early or something, this is going to be like those zombies in 'The Walking Dead,' ' Tillis said. 'Every time you think you've killed it, another one's just going to come out of the closet after you.
'This is going to be an issue all the way through next year's election.'