Industry refuels strategy on Trump's tariffs

Politico

3 hours ago

With help from Doug Palmer
QUICK FIX
— Pro-trade groups won't take President Donald Trump's love for tariffs at face value, as they gear up for another round of outreach aimed at securing relief.
— The attorney general of Oregon expressed cautious optimism about the chances of a court ruling against Trump's emergency tariff regime.
— A Canadian minister is projecting confidence about trade talks with the U.S., after Trump hiked tariffs on the country from 25 to 35 percent.
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Driving the day
LOBBYISTS LOOK AHEAD: Businesses are reviving a pressure campaign on the White House, pushing for lower rates and exemptions, even as the Trump administration claims Aug. 7 tariffs are set.
'This is an administration where there is always an interest in making a deal,' said Tom Madrecki, vice president of campaigns and special projects at the Consumer Brands Association, whose members include some of the top packaged food brands in the world. 'Yes, Aug. 7 is the deadline for rates to go into effect. But that doesn't necessarily mean rates won't change,' he told Morning Trade.
Why it matters: Industry groups representing major U.S. companies are ramping up outreach in hopes of securing broad exemptions from tariffs — especially for sectors like copper, steel and aluminum — as they press for clarity on the long-term direction of Trump's trade agenda. With sweeping duties delayed once again, the business community is still holding out hope for a drastic shift by the administration, and that even finalized deals can still be abruptly rewritten.
That means another flurry of phone-calls, meeting requests and letter-sending to administration officials and Trump-aligned Republicans in Congress, coming shortly after Trump announced changes to tariff rates scheduled to hit dozens of countries this week. The outreach is the latest phase of a broader campaign from some pro-trade lobbyists working with House Republicans to rein in Trump's most aggressive trade moves.
What the admin says: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said tariff rates outlined by the administration last week were 'pretty much set' in an interview on CBS News' 'Face the Nation' Sunday, adding 'I don't think they will be,' when asked if he expects tariff rates to be negotiated down in the coming days.
'We're not taking stuff like that at face value,' a lobbyist from a major industry group, granted anonymity to speak openly, told your host on Sunday of Greer's remarks. 'Another delay from the tariff boss is the only sign worth taking,' they added, referring to Trump's decision not to impose the tariffs on Aug. 1 as expected.
Keep in mind: The new country-specific tariffs include a number of exemptions for critical products, but many of those will become moot when the administration rolls out sector-specific tariffs on key products, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, as it has promised to do in the coming weeks.
Adding to the confusion... Trump's much-hyped trade agreements were primarily verbal — meaning there hasn't been much documentation backing up what's been agreed to. Businesses, which have spent months craving some level of certainty about trade negotiations, now face difficult decisions on how to price and source goods without knowing the exact terms of deals.
POLITICO's Daniel Desrochers and Victoria Guida have more here.
LEGAL REVIEW
OPTIMISM IN OREGON: Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield expressed cautious optimism on Friday about the chances of a federal appeals court ruling against Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on imports from around the world.
Rayfield visited POLITICO's office to talk about the case because Oregon is leading a group of 11 Democratic-run states that have challenged the duties, along with a separate case brought by a group of private companies.
The Court of International Trade issued a combined ruling in favor of both plaintiffs in May, prompting the Trump administration to appeal. That set the stage for last week's argument before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.
Rayfield stopped well short of declaring victory, but said he thought most observers would agree they'd 'rather be in the states' shoes' than the federal government's, after the hearing.
Key issues: The former speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives said he believed a majority of the 11-member court would decide they have the right to review the tariffs that Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Acts, despite the Justice Department's assertion that the court does not.
Then, the case might turn on whether at least six of the judges agree that the use of the word 'regulate' in IEEPA does not imply the right to impose tariffs, he said. Rayfield wouldn't hazard a guess on how many judges might vote in their favor, but said he'd be 'shocked' if the court issues a unanimous ruling for their side.
Supremes or not? The case is widely expected to end up at the Supreme Court no matter which side wins the appeal, but Rayfield said he thinks there is at least a chance that the high court won't take it up. That's because they could be wary of giving Trump a broad power to issue tariffs after declaring a national emergency that a Democratic president could later use to advance their own agendas, like gun control or addressing climate change, Rayfield said.
If the appeals court does rule for the plaintiffs, it probably would give the government some time to appeal to the Supreme Court before ordering the Trump administration to stop collecting the tariffs, Rayfield said. After that, it would depend on how long the Supreme Court takes to announce whether it intends to take up the case or not.
Rayfield said the states are not asking the court to refund the tariffs already paid. However, the private companies are.
Timing: Alan Wolff, a former WTO deputy director general and veteran trade attorney, wrote Friday he thought the appeals court could issue a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs as early as August.
Rayfield was more cautious about how soon the appeals court could decide. 'I think more likely a couple of months,' he said.
Around the World
CANADIAN DEAL ON DECK? Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc is projecting confidence about trade talks with Washington, even as stalled negotiations resulted in the White House placing a higher tariff levy on Ottawa last week.
LeBlanc told CBS' Margaret Brennan on Sunday that he still believes the Trump administration is negotiating in good faith with Canada. He expects Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney to speak in the coming days.
'We believe there's a great deal of common ground between the United States and Canada in terms of building two strong economies that work well together,' LeBlanc said.
Reminder: Trump imposed heightened tariffs on Canada on Thursday. The levies only apply to goods not covered by the USMCA that Trump negotiated in his first term, although the exact amount of goods the tariffs apply to has not been recently clarified by the administration.
POLITICO's Gregory Svirnovskiy has more here.
On the Move
Luke Lindberg was confirmed by the Senate to be USDA's undersecretary for trade and foreign affairs in a 77-18 vote Saturday, POLITICO's Grace Yarrow reports.
TRADE OVERNIGHT
— Trade representative backs Trump's punitive approach to global tariffs, POLITICO reports.
— European automakers despair of dodging Trump tariffs, per POLITICO Europe.
— Canada's US trade minister exits DC as tariff talks stall, POLITICO Pro reports.
— Trump to Swiss: Happy holidays! Now pay a 39 percent tariff, per POLITICO Europe.
— Exxon Mobil chief casts doubt on energy purchase pledges in trade deals, per POLITICO Pro.
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