Crude Oil Down 2% On Uncertainty Over US Role In Israel-Iran Tensions
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Oil prices dipped on Friday as traders awaited the U.S. decision on involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict
Crude Oil Prices: Oil prices softened on Friday as traders awaited a decision from the United States regarding its potential involvement in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
At 11:08 am, the Brent August contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $77.20 per barrel, over 2% lower than its previous close.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, quoting US President Donald Trump, said: 'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks."
This statement is being viewed as a pressure tactic to nudge Iran toward negotiations. Market watchers pointed out that Trump has employed similar two-week deadlines for major decisions in the past, many of which passed without any significant action. As a result, crude oil prices tend to remain elevated during such periods of strategic ambiguity.
Meanwhile, Iran has issued a warning against any US intervention, stating that such a move would trigger further escalation in West Asia — a region critical to global crude oil supply.
Iran, a key member of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), is the third-largest oil producer within the bloc, producing around 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. Media reports indicated that the country continues to export crude oil, with current weekly loadings at around 2.2 million barrels per day.
'Crude oil remains highly volatile, with prices reacting sharply to developments and statements related to the Israel-Iran conflict," said Rahul Kalantri, Vice President for Commodities at Mehta Equities. 'Yesterday, we saw a sharp jump in crude oil prices… but this morning we are seeing a dip after the White House stated that President Trump will decide on Iran in two weeks, calming immediate fears of escalation."
Despite the temporary pullback, Kalantri noted that crude is poised for a third consecutive weekly gain.
Supply Disruptions Still a Concern
'The markets remain jittery as risks of supply disruptions from Iran and broader conflict escalation loom large. Geopolitical tensions and supply fears continue to support oil prices despite temporary pullbacks," Kalantri added.
Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, echoed a similar sentiment, highlighting that intensifying hostilities in West Asia continue to fuel fears of regional supply disruptions, potentially limiting any sharp downside in oil prices.
As of Wednesday, the Indian crude oil basket — the average price at which Indian refiners import crude — stood at $75.91 per barrel. The average price for June so far is $68.58 per barrel, up from $64.04 in May.
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June 20, 2025, 12:16 IST
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Now that the G7 summit is done and dusted, we may try to assess whether it has helped India break its disastrous isolation that Operation Sindoor revealed. , prime minister Narendra Modi did get a last-minute invitation to join the G7, but not as a participant – only as an observer. There was jubilation among his lesser-informed fans, fanned also by his multi-million rupee IT cells and the enthralled majority in Indian media. The narrative was that he is too important not to be invited and that India is not isolated, or never was. It is, was and continues to remain the Vishwaguru. Facts, unfortunately, speak otherwise and the drift is just too stark, even for jaundiced eyes to miss. History will surely contrast India's current isolation with the post-colonial decades (1940s to 1960s), when Jawaharlal Nehru and India strode like a colossus among the newly liberated nations. 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It said: 'Pakistan's army and intelligence services, principally the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), contribute to making the Taliban a highly effective military force'. But, since then, much water has flowed down the Indus, on which India has no tap, despite our current bluster to stop water. We chose not to hear these bells and blame it all on the Trump family's commercial interest in World Liberty Financial's new deal with Pakistan – to make it 'the crypto capital of South Asia" and a "global leader in the digital finance revolution." Back to our theme that India is completely isolated, especially after Operation Sindoor, we sifted through every phrase uttered at the pined-for G7 summit but could find not a word of support for India's justified war on terror. Even the Pahalgam attack was taken up by G7 only after India launched its operation against Pakistan. On the third day of the furious battle of aircrafts, missiles and drones (with no boots on the ground), the G7 did wake to 'strongly condemn the egregious terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22' without pointing fingers. But G7's chief focus was to 'urge maximum restraint from both India and Pakistan' (note how both are equated) and to 'call for immediate de-escalation and …engage in direct dialogue towards a peaceful outcome.' This is when the calculated blunderbuss Trump walked in to claim he pulled apart the two fighting children. To drive home USA's infatuation with Pakistan, the US Central Command chief General Michael Kurilla said that America appreciates Munir's cooperation against the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS‑KP). At the G7 Summit, nations waited for Trump to ramp up pressure on Russia and the Group was ready to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $ 60 to $ 45 dollars per barrel. This would drastically decrease Russia's oil revenues that financed its war in Ukraine. Not only did Trump veto the proposal (rewarding Putin) but he expressed his undisguised annoyance at G7 for dropping Russia from the original G8. Those Indian GDP enthusiasts who swear that high GDP means world power may note that Russia figures nowhere in the list of top 10 GDP countries. These consist of the G7 ones and China, India and Brazil. So, India's fourth GDP rank counts for so little in the Game of Thrones. Salt on wounds do not seem to stop as Trump is even reported to have suggested inclusion of China into a new G9. Wasn't he at Xi Jinping's throat – until the latter kicked his anatomy where it hurts the most? India's foreign office must surely have noted Trump's penchant for kissing those who behave the worst. Remember how passionately he had wooed the terribly unreliable Kim Jongun of North Korea? But not even mentioning India to expand it to G 10 is a diabolical outrage, meant to wake us up to play rugger the way he does. Incidentally, this G7 summit was among the rarest – from which no joint communique could be issued – so fragmented are the big boys. It is time for India to assiduously befriend just two of the European four and try to strengthen positive relations with Japan to the next level. If China and Türkiye can stand rock-like behind Pakistan, India can not be so hopelessly isolated that not one major country comes out boldly, as an all-weather friend. Well, PM Modi did get a day's rest in Canada when the leaders of G7 huddled together, without the other 'invitees'. He figured not in the actual G7 photo, but in that of the extended group – standing somewhere on the second row, looking lost as others were busy networking. It goes, however, to a dignified, erudite Canadian PM's credit that he kept the few handful of Sikh agitators at bay and took positive steps to normalise relations with India. And, surely, PM Modi must have held bilateral talks with most – and one sincerely hopes that they begin to matter. After all, his visit to a record total of 74 countries so far could not persuade even one country– even Guyana or Fiji or Papua New Guinea would do, to begin with – to come out and say that they condemn Pakistan's terrorists and support India's retaliation. Also read: Rousing Rhetoric for Diaspora, Tourist Spot Visits, Courting Domestic Voter Base: What MPs Did Abroad The hyper-publicised seven 'all party' delegations are back home after visiting 32 countries. My former colleagues in parliament must all be tired. But the 31 political leaders from the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) must now be happy that Modi has finally cast his benevolent gaze at them – after excluding most, for years together, from either importance or power. The 20 politicians from 'other parties' are also grateful for this unique world tour and one of them weaponised it against the detractors in his party. Fine, but it is doubtful if even one of the 32 countries visited would stand up for India. But politics is politics and neither performance nor results matter – something else does. That's why I left it. We have taken the PM and his prickly, ultra-pontificating foreign minister to task in the earlier piece for landing us in such a friendless world. But we also have to admit that there is surely a strong malicious tinge in this west's disaffirmation of India's indisputable economic elevation. India's manufactured superpower narrative is also hot air, because economic growth is only one factor. History shows that no nation has ever been conferred a place on the high table without facing initial scorn, condescension and trial by fire. England, for instance, was just pooh-poohed as a nation of shopkeepers until Poseidon (or Varun) intervened with unruly storms in 1588, for Francis Drake to defeat the invincible Spanish Armada. But, England continued to face ridicule from the continental powers that dominated land warfare and its conquests in India and elsewhere attributed to a cocktail of fluke and bribery. It was only after Wellington managed to defeat Napoleon at Waterloo in 1815, with dollops of timely assistance from Field Marshal Blucher and his merciless Prussian cavalry that England mattered. If we look intently at each one of the other nations of G7, we will understand how much blood and gore they have gone through in the past centuries. In fact, the dropped-out eighth nation, Russia, alone has witnessed more death and devastation than any other country. What is more relevant is that the entire population of these nations was involved and every village lost her sons. There was, therefore, no time for pampered citizens to indulge in warmongering from air-conditioned homes. Those mercenary TV anchors who won imaginary victories in Pakistan (and their counterparts there) have brought shame to the profession and are now a laughing stock among informed global citizens. India's isolation is a current reality and while we break out of it with all we have in us, we must also realise that 'demeaning an upstart' is left-handed recognition. The rest of the nation's journey up is long, perilous and, hopefully, less violent. Jawhar Sircar is a former Rajya Sabha MP of the Trinamool Congress. He was earlier Secretary, Government of India, and CEO of Prasar Bharati.
