No structural negative in Indian pharma seen, FMCG companies chasing margin: Pankaj Pandey
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, Head Research,, says Indian pharma companies are focusing on specialty products for growth. Generic drug pricing pressure is expected to continue. FMCG companies are shifting strategies to chase margins. Global sectors may face pressure, making FMCG a better trading option. The food segment is expected to show double digit growth. Indian pharma faces US exposure, but structural negatives are not expected.I do not have coverage on Swiggy or even Eternal and so would not be able to comment. But some of the numbers which I have liked like Ambuja are again talking of Rs 350 per tonne of improvement and the volume growth is higher than the industry. So, cement as a pack has been coming out with a better set of numbers. We have been liking most of them and then Chalet again came up with a very good set of numbers. So, it is not really comparable from a YoY basis, but if you look at the hotel piece specifically, we have seen a high teen kind of a growth in the revenues for hotel business, margins have improved, so that is another.In fact, we like hotels as a pack and overall most of the numbers have come out on expected lines.In auto, we are selectively positive. In Maruti, again a muted set of numbers. The only reason we are positive on Maruti is because we are hopeful of the fact that probably in the festive season, even Maruti might be able to deliver better growth than the industry. That is the only thing.Otherwise, Eicher Motors came out with a decent set of numbers and they are also looking quite constructively, especially in the festive season and TVS also came out with a good set of numbers. From that perspective, one needs to be very selective in the overall results. But the result in general is lacking the spark to lift the market higher and which is why we are continuing to see consolidation in the market because of tariff-related challenges.On the pharma side, all global majors will have a lot more challenges given the fact that some of them are housed in Ireland which again is a tax haven and obviously there are some challenges with respect to pricing which is what Trump is highlighting.For domestic manufacturers or even for exporters, largely the template seems cut out. For example, most of the companies have started to focus on the speciality side, like we have seen in the case of Sun Pharma and their global specialty sales have grown at about 17 odd percent. Domestic growth was 14 odd percent. From that perspective, overall, our sense is that companies have started to become selective in terms of growth and generic is where we do not expect much of a pricing leeway that India can offer.That is why we are not too worried from that perspective because all these tariff related noises are going to continue for a good period of time even for countries which have done the trade deal. A lot of details are still not available. You cannot pencil down your numbers on this basis and mark down the prices.Overall the sense is that though Indian pharma is exposed to the US and a sizable chunk too, there are no major alternatives for generic medicines like what US might be expecting. So, from that perspective, a knee-jerk or sentimental reaction can happen. But we do not see a structural negative that is going to pan out in pharma overall.On the FMCG front, they have changed the template. Earlier the growth was driven by premiumisation which is where we have seen volume growth tapering off for even a big player like HUL and as a result, the margins were on an elevated level.Now they are looking to chase margins and which is why we have seen for a company like HUL, quarter-on-quarter volume incremental improvement of about a percent. So, my sense is again given the fact that some of the global oriented sectors are expected to witness some kind of a pressure, so your FMCG becomes a better trading bet.Somehow, I am still not very convinced in terms of a very high growth rate for this sector, and so a sum total both pricing and volume growth is still going to be low single digits or probably mid-single or slightly higher depending on the case but in general this sector is not expected to outperform. Selectively, we are positive on a company like say Tata Consumer or Marico . The food segment is again expected to deliver double digit kind of growth and that looks sustainable, otherwise one needs to be very selective in FMCG as overall space.
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