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India Today
2 hours ago
- India Today
Trump's tariff: What Indian refiners stand to lose if Russian oil stops flowing
When the fuel that powers your engine starts lighting fires under your feet, it's probably time to rethink your route. That's exactly the situation Indian oil refiners find themselves began as a jackpot deal, as in cheap Russian crude flowing in after the Ukraine war, is now turning into a diplomatic bonfire. With the US turning up the heat through fresh tariffs and calling out India's continued oil trade with Moscow, the once-sweet deal is now sinking both margins and international over two years, Indian refiners have been taking advantage of discounted Russian crude. But with the US tightening its stance, that door may soon begin to TARIFF PUSH BRINGS UNCERTAINTYIn a move that could reshape trade ties, US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order that slaps an extra 25% tariff on several Indian exports. The decision, which raises duties on many products to 50%, came with a clear message: Washington is unhappy with India's continued purchases of Russian new tariff puts India in a tough spot. On one hand, stepping away from Russian barrels means higher energy costs. On the other, staying the course risks damaging trade ties with the US, India's biggest export AT STAKE?The numbers lay out the dilemma. According to Bloomberg, India saved around $3.8 billion in the past year by importing cheaper Russian crude. But during the same period, it exported goods worth $87 billion to the United States.'If you look at the size of India's trade with the US, and how much it saves from Russian oil, it's clear what India would do,' said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Singapore. 'Are you going to risk $87 billion in exports to save a few billion on oil?'For India's state-run oil refiners, moving away from Russia could eat into profits. An industry official told The Economic Times that going back to Middle Eastern crude would affect gross refining margins, a key measure of from PTI suggest that dropping Russian imports could push India's annual oil bill up by as much as $11 billion. And with Russia still supplying about 10% of the world's oil, any change in buying patterns could also impact global DID INDIA'S OIL MIX CHANGE?Before the Ukraine war, India sourced most of its oil from the Middle East. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE were the top 2021, India bought 24% of its crude from Iraq, 16% from Saudi Arabia, 10% from the US, and only 2% from Russia, according to the National Bureau of Asian after sanctions isolated Russian oil from Western buyers, Moscow offered steep discounts. India took the opportunity. By mid-2024, Russia was supplying 41% of India's oil imports. In July 2024 alone, India imported over 2 million barrels per day from Russia, according to were good reasons for the shift. Russian Urals crude was cheaper than the global benchmark Brent. With lower input costs, Indian refiners could increase fuel production and export it, even to Europe and the product exports rose 3.4% by volume in FY25, touching 64.7 million tonnes. But weak international prices meant export earnings fell nearly 7% to $44.3 billion, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) INDIA HAS TO CHANGE COURSEIf pressure from the US forces India to scale back Russian oil imports, the country will likely return to its old energy partners — Middle Eastern producers and other global the state-run refiner, has already begun adjusting. Reuters reported that IOC has booked 7 million barrels for September delivery from sources in West Asia, Brazil, Guyana, the US, and Canada. Most of these barrels come from North East: Iraq remains a reliable option, with India having imported 49.9 million tonnes from it in FY24. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also expected to play a larger role States: US oil imports to India jumped over 50% in the first half of 2025. Lighter American crude blends are suitable for Indian refineries and could help replace Russian Brazil, Canada and Guyana are now on India's radar, offering supply Nigeria and Angola have long been oil partners to India. In FY22, India bought Rs 85,000 crore worth of crude from Nigeria WON'T BE AS CHEAP, BUT IT'S DOABLERussia gave India affordable oil when prices were high globally. If that supply becomes too risky, India's oil companies will turn to alternative sources. But it will come at a price, both in terms of money and margins.'Russian crude oil was cheap for Indian refiners. If we have to go back to importing from the Middle East, the gross refining margin may go down,' an official told The Economic India is not without options. Its infrastructure and relationships with old suppliers are intact. The switch may not be easy or as profitable, but it could help India steer through rising global pressure, at least for States: India's crude imports from the US jumped over 50% in the first half of 2025. US oil – especially lighter, sweeter grades – are well-suited for Indian refiners looking to produce high-quality Americas: India is actively tapping Brazil, Guyana and Canada for crude. These countries help expand sourcing flexibility and reduce overdependence on any one Africa: Nigeria and Angola remain reliable suppliers. The Indian Consulate in Lagos and the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics (DGCI&S) show strong trade links:In FY22, India's imports from Nigeria hit $10.29 billion, with $10.03 billion of that in crude was the fourth-largest supplier of crude oil and LNG to India in exports to India have also grown, dominated by crude oil, driving a steady trade deficit in India's where next?advertisementRussia gave India cheap oil and a chance to boost refining margins. If that door closes, India won't be stranded. It has the infrastructure and relationships to adapt, but it will come at a the end, India may be forced to turn back the clock. Its old oil partners -- Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Nigeria, and even the US -- still have the capacity and willingness to supply. The logistics are familiar, the relationships are proven, and the geopolitical risks are to them won't be as profitable as Russian barrels, but it offers stability in an increasingly volatile global order. If tariffs tighten the screws, India's best option may lie in rediscovering the suppliers it once relied on.- Ends advertisement
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
Ola Electric shares in focus as lock-in expiry frees up 10% of equity
Ola Electric Mobility shares will be in focus on Friday, August 8, as the one-year lock-in period ends today, resulting in the release of 441.8 million shares into the market, representing 10% of the company's total outstanding equity, according to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. This corporate development marks a key event for investors and market participants tracking the stock. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program A lock-in period refers to the time frame following a company's listing during which certain shareholders—typically promoters, early investors, or insiders—are restricted from selling their shares in the open market. Once this period expires, these shareholders are permitted to offload their holdings, potentially increasing the stock's free float and available supply. While the lifting of lock-in restrictions does not directly affect the fundamentals of a company, it can impact market dynamics depending on the volume of shares released and prevailing investor sentiment . The lock-in release on August 8 comes exactly a year after the company's listing and will allow previously restricted shares to become eligible for trading on the open market starting Friday. Live Events A lock-in expiry typically results in a sharp increase in the number of shares available for trading as previously restricted shares held by promoters, early investors, or institutions become eligible for sale. This sudden rise in supply can lead to short-term selling pressure, especially if early investors choose to book profits, often pushing the stock price lower. While this is a common and expected event in the lifecycle of a newly listed company, the stock's reaction largely depends on investor sentiment and the company's fundamentals. If large shareholders retain their stakes post-lock-in, it may be seen as a vote of confidence, whereas significant selling could trigger concerns among retail investors. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Economic Times
HDFC Bank चा कोट्यवधी ग्राहकांना दिलासा, MCLR मध्ये कपात, गृहकर्जाचा हप्ता कमी होणार
The Economic Times Marathi hdfc bank reduces mclr home car and personal loan rates come down
