Jane Street's Lucrative India Trade Highlights Key Market Quirk
The US firm made use of the country's peculiar market structure, where derivatives turnover is more than 300 times larger than cash equities, thanks to the outsized presence of options-loving retail investors.
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Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Markets still expect Sept. Fed rate cut, despite hot PPI data
Even hotter-than-expected inflation data isn't rattling the market's expectation of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporters Jennifer Schonberger and Allie Canal outline the latest. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief. What's also interesting, Jen, is we're not seeing, uh, at least fed funds futures budge that much this morning. That is not the sum total of of inflation expect of, uh, interest rate expectations, but it is a snapshot. Yeah, it is interesting that we're holding at 90% plus and above. Um, but again, I think it's almost like the market's trying to force the Fed's hand, and we do know there's volatility in these reports. So we'll have to see. We're going to get another CPI. We're going to get another PPI before September. But I think also, I'm reading this morning that you didn't just see the good side of PPI pop up, you saw the services side as well. And, uh, we heard from Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee yesterday, and when he talked about the CPI number, he said what concerned him about that was that services increased. So if we are seeing inflation increase, not just on the goods side, but on the services side, that's going to be concerning for the Fed. They're going to need to see more reports, right, before they make any determination on that. But if it's clear that inflation is not staying in the goods lane, and it's spilling over to services, which is what the Fed was concerned about before, we saw inflation coming down before this recent rout popping back up, then that's something to look for. Um, and Ali, you know, of course, it's not just fed funds futures. We can look across the spectrum, and we definitely saw stocks react negatively to this. Yeah, stock futures falling across the board here. And it is interesting to see those fed fund futures, uh, still hovering around that 95% when it comes to expectations for rate cuts in September, cuz normally that's correlated to what we see in the stock market. I'm looking at bond yields right now, too. And the 10-year yield is still low, hovering around 4.2%. So we're not seeing this, uh, massive recalibration of rate cut expectations, but we do have a wide range of dispersion when it comes to what Wall Street thinks is going to happen, when it comes to what actual FOMC officials think could happen. And that's because, as Jed was Jen was alluding to, the Fed is really caught between its two dual mandates. And even though we did have a better than feared CPI print, let's not forget that core services did firm up. And that's what I've been hearing from my sources is the fact that we have services inflation that's now firmer. That can offset any increases we see on the good side due to tariffs. And like you were saying, Julie, we have heard from businesses throughout this earning season that they're absorbing a lot of these costs. But from the early commentary on Wall Street, that's only going to last so long, and eventually that has to get passed on to the consumer price index and to, uh, our actual wallets. So that's something to look out for in the fall, and even into 2026, because that's what economists have been telling us. We're not going to see this tariff pass through right away. It's going to take a longer time. And I think markets got a little too excited after that CPI report the other day that maybe we won't see that impact fully materialize. I just, I just think from this hotter PPI print that might not be a reality.
CNET
12 minutes ago
- CNET
Google Wants You to Pick Your Own News Sources for Searches
Perhaps in response to suggestions that its Search functions have been degraded or been usurped by AI summaries that not everybody wants, Google will now let you select news sources to narrow things down. The company said in a blog post this week that it's launching Preferred Sources in the US and India over the next few days, along with a plus icon to the right of Top Stories in searches. Clicking on that plus symbol allows you to add blogs or news outlets. There doesn't appear to be a limit on how many sources you can add. "Once you select your sources, they will appear more frequently in Top Stories or in a dedicated 'From your sources' section on the search results page. You'll still see content from other sites, and can manage your selections at any time," Google said. The new feature is the result of a Labs experiment. Google says that in that version, half of its users added four or more sources. Google offered advice to website publishers and owners on how to direct readers to add their site. Speaking of which, we'd be remiss if we didn't suggest adding CNET to your preferred Google search sources. We hear they do great work. What it means for news sites and their readers News organizations and other information sites have shifted before to cater to Google's search algorithm as well as those on other platforms including Facebook and Instagram. Publishers executed a pivot to video in the 2010s, and in recent years produced more bite-sized content suitable for sharing on platforms such as TikTok. Here's how you get to select your news sources. Google The addition of news preferences might be a double-edged sword, giving you more control over search results while further shutting out some legitimate news publishers as new echo chambers get built. "It's almost like a tone-deaf move by Google in my point of view, because news organizations are already concerned about losing traffic to the AI overviews," said Alex Mahadevan, director of MediaWise at Poynter, a nonprofit, nonpartisan media literacy program. "Now they have to figure out how to get people to pick their source in the source preferences." For bigger news publishers who have a loyal audience, Preferred Sources might prove that audience engagement efforts can pay off. But Mahadevan says it will depend on how willing people are to effectively subscribe to and curate their own news sources list. "I question how many people will actually use it," he said. People may see their own beliefs reinforced, not challenged Publishers who haven't cultivated engaged, loyal followers and don't have the means to steer their audiences might suffer, Mahadevan says. "The thing that does concern me about this is you know for the organizations that may have not done that, it's just going to further erode the amount of Google traffic they get," Mahadevan said. "If way more people want news from Fox News and are choosing Fox News among their source preferences, then that's going to be crowding out other news sites that might need that traffic." As an experiment, Mahadevan says he set Breitbart News Network as a source using the Google Search feature, saying he chose the far-right news source because it has been known to share misinformation. "I started Googling about tariffs and the first thing I see is Breitbart," he said. "So this concerns me also from a media literacy standpoint because I think it might further push people into echo chambers," where they only see beliefs that correspond with those they already hold. "It just seems like a way for people to narrow down their news diet even more via Google Search," Mahadevan said. If SEO, the way that websites have for decades have drawn Google traffic by generating good, relevant content, is effectively out the window, what does that mean for the future of publishing and media? "Is there a strong enough media literacy base for people to make sure they're choosing good legitimate news outlets and a varied variety of news sources?" Mahadevan asked. "I don't know if we're quite there yet."
Yahoo
18 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Yen Rises Against Bitcoin, Dollar as Scott Bessent Predicts Bank of Japan Rate Hike
The yen (JPY) strengthened against the dollar (USD) and bitcoin (BTC) after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Bank of Japan is behind the curve on inflation and will probably have to raise interest rates. 'The Japanese have an inflation problem ... They're behind the curve, so they are going to be hiking, and they need to get their inflation problem under control,' Bessent said during an interview with Bloomberg TV. Bessent's take contrasts with that of BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who has justified moving slowly on rate increases because underlying inflation, which focuses on the strength of domestic demand and wages, remains short of the central bank's 2% target even though the headline rate is above 3%. In July, the bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5% while providing no clues on future moves. The Trump administration has for months been calling for tighter monetary policy in Japan to halt the yen's depreciation and narrow the rate differential between the two currencies. In a report published in June, the Treasury called for the BOJ to focus on growth, inflation and the normalization of the yen's weakness against the dollar as part of a structural rebalancing of bilateral trade, according to the Financial Times. Bessent's comments strengthened the yen higher across the board. BitFlyer listed BTC/JPY pair fell 1.7% to 17,845,432 yen, posting bigger losses than Coinbase's BTC/USD pair, which dropped to $121,650. The dollar-yen pair (USD/JPY) slipped for the third straight day, hitting a three-week low of 146.21, according to data source TradingView. Risk-off ahead? Traders have historically used the yen as a carry currency to fund purchases of assets in high-yielding economies. That is, they've exploited Japan's low interest rate to borrow yen and buy assets that give a higher return, profiting from the difference. As such, rallies in the yen often trigger fears of risk aversion in financial markets. That may not be the case anymore, according to Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Risk-off is frequently the result of unwinding of funding trades, e.g. short yen, long Brazilian real (BRL). However, the yen may not be the most attractive funding currency at present. "Not only is Swiss policy rate at zero, but JPY volatility is higher," Chandler told CoinDesk in an email. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
