How bad was Jeremy Swayman in '24-25? Can Morgan Geekie sustain his scoring? Inside Bruins analytics

New York Times

02-05-2025

When it comes to Jeremy Swayman's $8.25 million average annual value, the Boston Bruins goalie only looks up to Sergei Bobrovsky ($10 million), Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5 million) and Connor Hellebuyck ($8.5 million) in his peer group.
It is an impressive cohort. Bobrovsky has won the Vezina Trophy twice and backstopped the Florida Panthers to last year's Stanley Cup. Vasilevskiy has one Vezina, two Cups and one Conn Smythe. Hellebuyck is the favorite to win his third Vezina this season.
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When it comes to Swayman's minus-18.26 goals saved above expected in 2024-25, his company changes. Among the 49 goalies who faced at least 629 chances, according to Clear Sight Analytics, only Alexandar Georgiev (minus-27.23) performed worse than Swayman. The Colorado Avalanche traded Georgiev to the San Jose Sharks on Dec. 9, 2024. His three-year, $10.2 million contract is expiring.
The other goalies in Swayman's and Georgiev's neighborhood were Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen (minus-14.81), David Rittich (minus-14.82) and Vitek Vanecek (minus-15.60). This is not a group the Bruins signed Swayman to join.
The Bruins fell flat on their faces in 2024-25. Clear Sight Analytics data points to multiple shortcomings for their 76-point total.
Swayman's collapse could be the biggest reason.
You could make the case that Swayman played behind a diminished roster. That is true. In the 62 games the Bruins played under Joe Sacco following Jim Montgomery's dismissal, they were No. 31 in net-front defense measured by expected goals against per 60 minutes of play. They were 26th below the tops of the circles in their end. No goalie would enjoy playing without Charlie McAvoy (50 games) and Hampus Lindholm (17), the team's top two defensemen. By the end, the Bruins were a one-line team.
Swayman's expected save percentage was .893. For context, Linus Ullmark had the same number with the Ottawa Senators, which measures the environments within which both goalies played. But where the ex-Bruin had an actual save percentage of .900 (plus-0.7 percent), Swayman was at .880 (minus-1.2 percent), showing how the former partners diverged in performance.
One year ago, the Bruins made all the right decisions. Swayman deserved to be the go-to postseason goalie against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Panthers. As Swayman entered restricted free agency and Ullmark had one year left on his deal, the Bruins identified the latter as the goalie who had to be moved. They got a good return from the Senators: a 2024 first-round pick (Dean Letourneau), Joonas Korpisalo and Mark Kastelic. Swayman's past performance indicated he was ready to be the No. 1 and to be paid as such.
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It just didn't work out.
'It wasn't, 'Is Jeremy good enough to be our starter?' The answer in all of our data would say yes,' said Clear Sight Analytics chief operating officer John Healy. 'It's that he's never proven himself to be a starter at this level, where you have to take the shoulder, the burden of being a Bruins starting goalie or any major-market starting goalie. That was the one unknown going into it. Now the question is, 'He got the contract. Is he going to bounce back?''
Defensively, Sacco oversaw a club that excelled at defending against the rush. The problem was how the Bruins let opponents run over them once they settled into their attack. Even with the addition of Nikita Zadorov and his close-quarters physicality, the Bruins were porous in net-front defending. They also struggled with puck recoveries off shots (No. 25), perhaps a function of slower foot speed.
Defense should improve with McAvoy and Lindholm at full health. But they still need to replace Brandon Carlo.
Offensively, Clear Sight Analytics identifies three critical components that drive every team's results: power play, five-on-five settled offense and five-on-five odd-man rushes. The Bruins were No. 29 on the power play (15.2 percent). Under Sacco, they were 21st in net-front offense and 22nd in offense below the tops of the circles. The cause for all this was clear: little production beyond David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie, both of whom exceeded their expected goals.
Elias Lindholm did not perform at a first-line level. Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle and Trent Frederic were off their 2023-24 paces. Coyle and Frederic were moved because of their underperformance. Exchanging Coyle, Frederic, Brad Marchand and Justin Brazeau for Casey Mittelstadt, Marat Khusnutdinov and Jakub Lauko helped the Bruins achieve their post-deadline objective: bottom out and improve their chances of netting what will be a top-seven 2025 selection.
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One of the issues will be whether Pastrnak and Geekie are enough of an up-front foundation. There is no discussion with Pastrnak. The No. 1 right wing's history says he will be a superstar producer in 2025-26.
Geekie is another matter. He scored a career-best 33 goals off a 22.0 percent shooting percentage in 2024-25 and will cash in this summer. The trick will be whether the Bruins are paying for a career year or reliable future performance.
Clear Sight Analytics' data says it could be sustainable. Healy highlights an important conversion: Geekie scored on 13 of 28 slot-line sequences. Those are high-danger scoring chances, repeatable because of the quality of the opportunities. Geekie, then, could be in the 30-goal neighborhood again with one variable: he does not leave Pastrnak's side because of how slick No. 88 is at executing east-west plays. Geekie on another line, in other words, would not, in all likelihood, produce similar fireworks.
'Is this a career year? Potentially,' Healy said of Geekie's 33-goal output. 'But it should be somewhat sustainable in this range if he continues to play with Pastrnak and Zacha. Or someone of that caliber.'
General manager Don Sweeney's task, then, will be to fill out the forwards underneath Pastrnak and Geekie. It would help if Fabian Lysell, Fraser Minten or Matt Poitras could be internal promotions. That is not guaranteed.
Sweeney's most likely play, then, is via free agency. The GM has identified wing as the position most in need of upgrades. They will have money to spend. With one or two more scoring threats on the second and third lines, opponents could not train their defensive sights on Pastrnak and Geekie. If Sweeney can fulfill his objectives, the Bruins could be back in the playoffs.
But Sweeney will not be acting in isolation. The Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning and Panthers finished 2024-25 atop the Atlantic Division. The Senators and Montreal Canadiens are rising.
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'I think they could be contending for those spots,' Healy said of the Bruins. 'The same question is teams like Montreal and Ottawa, who have been trending up with their younger cores, you're going to have to continue to play catch-up. Because they should also continue to get better.'
There is one non-negotiable: Swayman has to return to his level.
(Photo of Jeremy Swayman: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)