Is NY Times' Poised For A Post-Earnings Rally?
New York Times building in Manhattan, New York City, United States of America on July 16th, 2024. ... More (Photo by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The New York Times' stock (NYSE: NYT) is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, with analysts anticipating earnings of 34 cents per share on $635 million in revenue. This would indicate a 42% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 7% rise in sales compared to the previous year's results of 24 cents per share and $594 million in revenue. Historically, the NY Times' stock has tended to outperform after earnings announcements, increasing 60% of the time with a median one-day gain of 3.9% and a maximum observed gain of 12%.
Looking forward to Q1 2025, NYT expects year-over-year growth of 14% to 17% in digital-only subscription revenue, along with a mid-single-digit rise across other revenue streams. Adjusted operating expenses are projected to increase by 5% to 6%, attributed to planned investments in technology and content creation. The company's legal stance regarding intellectual property and its ongoing technological efforts are crucial to its strategy for maintaining competitive advantage and subscriber engagement. The NYT currently holds a market capitalization of $8.5 billion. In the past twelve months, it reported $2.6 billion in revenue, with $351 million in operating profit and $294 million in net income.
For event-driven traders, historical trends can provide an advantage, whether by positioning prior to earnings or responding to post-release movements. If you're aiming for upside with lower volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, outperforming the S&P 500 and achieving returns over 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Further data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings is summarized in the table below along with the statistics.
NYT 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
A relatively lower-risk approach (though not ideal if the correlation is low) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the strongest correlation, a trader can adopt a 'long' position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
NYT Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), resulting in strong returns for investors.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
28 minutes ago
- Yahoo
United Healthcare: Earnings, A $200 Billion Overreaction
One of the most dramatic reactions from the Q1 2025 earnings season came from United Healthcare (NYSE:UNH), which shed over $200 billion in market cap and cratered 23% intra-day post-earnings along with continued decline upon the resignation of its CEO and a potential DOJ inquiry. At first glance, that kind of move suggests something catastrophic although the actual results paint a very different picture. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with UNH. The selloff was driven by a 2% increase in Medicare Advantage costs and higher utilization trends (greater related medical expenses), which led to a reduction in 2025 earnings guidance from $29 to $26 per share initially and later with guidance lifted. That's collectively a $3 hit to EPS which is material from initial guidance, but not earth-shattering especially considering UNH is stil projected to have 20.65 billion in 2024 full year net income based on revisions of major investment banks aggregated by Refinitiv along with 25-30 billion for FY26. That level of profit implies a P/E of roughly 12 and a forward P/E of less than 10 (representing a forward cash flow yield of 10%, a truly absurd financial metric for a company of this size), which is deeply discounted for a business of this scale, profitability, and consistency. The increase in utilization is also expected within the earnings call to normalize to historical averages in the near future and this isn't the first time a Medicare Advantage utilization has caused the share price to decline. In June 2023 a similar utilization increase was seen and the effects were short lived, negligible to profitability and the share price quickly was achieving new highs just a six weeks later. Given how the insurance operation works, premiums can also be raised to offset additional care expenses encountered to maintain similar margins and levels of profitability. The CEO also stepped down due to stated personal reasons, while for investors having a CEO step down is typically seen as something negative, the successor for the position is the long term prior CEO Steven J Hemsley, an executive that oversaw exceptional increases in financial operations, efficiency, and stewardship of the company through industry opportunities. While the stock declined rather significantly upon his appointment, this would seem to be dramatic given the prior CEO executed incredible shareholder returns and growth of operations. The last contributor to major negative sentiment is the "announcement/accusation" by journalists a DOJ probe into medicare advantage billing escalating from civil to criminal (uncorroborated by the DOJ or any legal agency), the company explicitly denied any knowledge or informational requests related to such a probe or its supposed existence and given a prior legal ruling in the civil case that there was no apparent incorrect coding for billing, the legitimacy of this seems to be in question. While if the probe is found to be legitimate in the future, as incredible as it sounds, the company would also likely not have any difficulty financing a fine/outlay of significant size. UNH generates profits from a few large business segments albeit diversified due to the massive scale, the insurance operation in which premiums are received and invested/used to pay out claims respectfully and represents the largest health insurer in the US. The other major component of business operations is Optum, which consists of its pharmacy benefit manager operations, Optum Health which directs healthcare directly, and Optum Insights which provides data analytics and consulting. The hit to guidance was within the legacy insurance segment, which remains wildly profitable although the real driver of earnings growth (a greater than 50% share of net income) is seen within Optum which would seem to be unaffected. UNH's capital allocation strategy has historically been a masterclass in shareholder returns. The company has averaged 2-4 billion in quarterly stock buybacks, while simultaneously paying out close to $8 billion in annual dividends all without compromising operations or balance sheet strength. The most recent buyback spike in Q4 2024 was nearly $5 billion, the largest in the past three years. Based on the outlandish profitability of UNH and the businesses clear willingness and ability to reward shareholders, once you throw in the fact that there is a significant discount being placed on the business by the market, it becomes clear this is a sizable overreaction and not reflective of the operations or strength of the company. *historically repurchases accelerate for UNH under market declines This level of profitability and shareholder alignment is rare, and it's even more compelling now that the market has mispriced the stock on short-term guidance noise. The biggest opportunities in investing often come when price temporarily detaches from financial reality and that's exactly what this looks like. With the regime of a current market built on fear and facing macroeconomic struggles, health insurance is generally considered a defensive, non-cyclical industry because demand for healthcare remains relatively stable regardless of economic conditions. People don't stop needing medical care during a recession and if anything, economic stress can drive higher Medicaid enrollment or subsidized marketplace coverage. For insurers like UNH, revenue is largely tied to premiums and government reimbursements, which are contractual or regulated and don't fluctuate with consumer sentiment or discretionary spending trends. Even during downturns, enrollment can remain stable or even grow as individuals shift from employer-sponsored plans to government-backed options. Unlike cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary or industrials, healthcare spending is inelastic and people prioritize it no matter what. Moreover, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid, which are a large part of UNH's book, are government-funded and relatively insulated from short-term economic cycles. As for the broader industry landscape, there are no meaningful moves underway to undercut or dismantle the private health insurance model. The regulatory outlook remains stable, and there are no current legislative pressures that would structurally alter the business model of companies like UNH. Importantly, this volatility in premiums is limited to the UnitedHealthcare segment. Optum UNH's faster-growing, higher margin division which continues to deliver strong performance across health services, pharmacy benefits, and data analytics. Together, this structure gives UNH a diversified revenue model that can weather temporary shocks in one segment without compromising overall earnings power and represents a significantly undervalued equity at current market prices. * TipRanks. (n.d.). UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) stock buybacks. Retrieved May 3, 2025, from This article first appeared on GuruFocus. 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Is Windsor-Essex ready for a guaranteed basic income? This senator says it's time
Windsor had the dubious distinction of having the second highest unemployment in the country last month — and that's among the reasons our community would benefit from a universal basic income, according to a Canadian senator. In late May, Sen. Kim Pate introduced Bill S-206, which calls upon the federal government to develop a financial framework for a Guaranteed Livable Basic Income. "How can we actually weave a safety net that leaves no one behind?" Pate said. "This bill is one strand in a social and economic fabric that would help us rebuild." Statistics Canada says Windsor's unemployment rate in May was 10.8 per cent. Only Peterborough had it harder with an unemployment rate of 11.7 per cent. And the situation could worsen in the near future: Pate says the growing reality of job losses due to the trade war and artificial intelligence technology means talking about a guaranteed income in Canada is more relevant than ever. "At a time like now, when we're facing the threat from the United States, when we're facing the threat of A.I., when we're facing challenges to industry — it strikes me that it's a perfect time for us to develop a plan that actually leaves nobody behind," Pate said. Lorraine Goddard, CEO of United Way/Centraide Windsor-Essex County, also believes the community would benefit from a guaranteed livable basic income — because she feels the current system isn't providing people with the support they need to improve their situations. "Social assistance programs keep people in poverty. They don't give people enough to live," Goddard said. "You're just living moment to moment in deprivation mode." "I see so many families and children really struggling... If you could help a family get that basic income, get them stabilized, let them help their children get through school successfully — then you could see, in 10 years, a transformation in this community." It's not the first time Pate has advocated for a guaranteed basic income. In 2021, she introduced a similar bill — S-233. But progress on that bill ended with the prorogation of Parliament in January 2025. "It died on the order paper," Pate admitted. Bill S-206 is entering its second reading in the Senate. It will need to survive multiple readings in the House of Commons to become law. It's still too early for Pate's idea to involve actual numbers and policy. But in 2017, the Province of Ontario experimented with a pilot project that provided a basic income to around 4,000 low-income people in Hamilton, Thunder Bay, and Lindsay. That project offered approximately $17,000 a year to single individuals, and $24,000 to couples. The amount was reduced by 50 cents for every dollar earned through work. Pate said a federal program could have a similar system — adjusted for the current economy. "Let's streamline this process," she said. "Make it universally accessible to people once they drop below a set income. Let's provide the resources the people need to rebound out (of poverty). Not just stay stuck in it." Critics like Franco Terrazzano, director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, believe that such a program is something the country simply can't afford. "You've got to remember: The federal government is broke. It's more than a trillion dollars in debt," Terrazzano said. A universal basic income in Canada would be "massively expensive," Terrazzano said. "Even in the best case scenario, this would cost Canadian taxpayers billions of dollars every single year... This would be big time tax increases for Canadians who are already struggling." Indeed, in the Parliamentary Budget Officer's study of Bill S-206, the gross cost of implementation is estimated at $107 billion. But Pate pointed out that the PBO's estimate is for the gross cost: The net cost could be as low as $3 billion, taking into account potential long-term savings in existing social assistance, health care, and the legal system. As an example, Pate cited the work of Canadian economist Evelyn Forget, who found that low-income people in a Manitoba community were inducing massive costs at their local emergency room — because they didn't have preventative health care and proper nutrition. "If we looked at what we actually spend now on those initiatives, the administration alone would cover a lot of costs," Pate suggested. "[The PBO] has very much said we would likely see many cost savings, particularly in health care and the criminal legal system." According to Terrazzano, the reality is that "if you pay people not to work, fewer people will end up working." Meanwhile, Pate believes the main obstacle to adopting a guaranteed livable basic income isn't finding the funding or the political will — it's adjusting attitudes. "The biggest barrier to implementing this kind of approach is the view that poor people somehow will waste the money or defraud the system," Pate said. "It's the stigma that attaches to poor people, the presumption that it's their own fault... a presumption that there are some people who deserve to be supported — and some who don't." Patrick Clark is a Windsor civil lawyer who earned his master's degree in political science from the University of Windsor with a 2021 paper titled The Answer to Poverty: A Universal Basic Income in Canada. Four years later, Clark says his views on the issue haven't changed: "That's the big key, moving forward: To put in place a system that essentially helps those who no longer can help themselves. "Right now, we have a situation where there are a lot of people who are unable to cover their basic needs — while we see the corporations at the top continue to increase prices. You'll find people falling further and further behind."
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
United Healthcare: Earnings, A $200 Billion Overreaction
One of the most dramatic reactions from the Q1 2025 earnings season came from United Healthcare (NYSE:UNH), which shed over $200 billion in market cap and cratered 23% intra-day post-earnings along with continued decline upon the resignation of its CEO and a potential DOJ inquiry. At first glance, that kind of move suggests something catastrophic although the actual results paint a very different picture. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Sign with UNH. The selloff was driven by a 2% increase in Medicare Advantage costs and higher utilization trends (greater related medical expenses), which led to a reduction in 2025 earnings guidance from $29 to $26 per share initially and later with guidance lifted. That's collectively a $3 hit to EPS which is material from initial guidance, but not earth-shattering especially considering UNH is stil projected to have 20.65 billion in 2024 full year net income based on revisions of major investment banks aggregated by Refinitiv along with 25-30 billion for FY26. That level of profit implies a P/E of roughly 12 and a forward P/E of less than 10 (representing a forward cash flow yield of 10%, a truly absurd financial metric for a company of this size), which is deeply discounted for a business of this scale, profitability, and consistency. The increase in utilization is also expected within the earnings call to normalize to historical averages in the near future and this isn't the first time a Medicare Advantage utilization has caused the share price to decline. In June 2023 a similar utilization increase was seen and the effects were short lived, negligible to profitability and the share price quickly was achieving new highs just a six weeks later. Given how the insurance operation works, premiums can also be raised to offset additional care expenses encountered to maintain similar margins and levels of profitability. The CEO also stepped down due to stated personal reasons, while for investors having a CEO step down is typically seen as something negative, the successor for the position is the long term prior CEO Steven J Hemsley, an executive that oversaw exceptional increases in financial operations, efficiency, and stewardship of the company through industry opportunities. While the stock declined rather significantly upon his appointment, this would seem to be dramatic given the prior CEO executed incredible shareholder returns and growth of operations. The last contributor to major negative sentiment is the "announcement/accusation" by journalists a DOJ probe into medicare advantage billing escalating from civil to criminal (uncorroborated by the DOJ or any legal agency), the company explicitly denied any knowledge or informational requests related to such a probe or its supposed existence and given a prior legal ruling in the civil case that there was no apparent incorrect coding for billing, the legitimacy of this seems to be in question. While if the probe is found to be legitimate in the future, as incredible as it sounds, the company would also likely not have any difficulty financing a fine/outlay of significant size. UNH generates profits from a few large business segments albeit diversified due to the massive scale, the insurance operation in which premiums are received and invested/used to pay out claims respectfully and represents the largest health insurer in the US. The other major component of business operations is Optum, which consists of its pharmacy benefit manager operations, Optum Health which directs healthcare directly, and Optum Insights which provides data analytics and consulting. The hit to guidance was within the legacy insurance segment, which remains wildly profitable although the real driver of earnings growth (a greater than 50% share of net income) is seen within Optum which would seem to be unaffected. UNH's capital allocation strategy has historically been a masterclass in shareholder returns. The company has averaged 2-4 billion in quarterly stock buybacks, while simultaneously paying out close to $8 billion in annual dividends all without compromising operations or balance sheet strength. The most recent buyback spike in Q4 2024 was nearly $5 billion, the largest in the past three years. Based on the outlandish profitability of UNH and the businesses clear willingness and ability to reward shareholders, once you throw in the fact that there is a significant discount being placed on the business by the market, it becomes clear this is a sizable overreaction and not reflective of the operations or strength of the company. *historically repurchases accelerate for UNH under market declines This level of profitability and shareholder alignment is rare, and it's even more compelling now that the market has mispriced the stock on short-term guidance noise. The biggest opportunities in investing often come when price temporarily detaches from financial reality and that's exactly what this looks like. With the regime of a current market built on fear and facing macroeconomic struggles, health insurance is generally considered a defensive, non-cyclical industry because demand for healthcare remains relatively stable regardless of economic conditions. People don't stop needing medical care during a recession and if anything, economic stress can drive higher Medicaid enrollment or subsidized marketplace coverage. For insurers like UNH, revenue is largely tied to premiums and government reimbursements, which are contractual or regulated and don't fluctuate with consumer sentiment or discretionary spending trends. Even during downturns, enrollment can remain stable or even grow as individuals shift from employer-sponsored plans to government-backed options. Unlike cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary or industrials, healthcare spending is inelastic and people prioritize it no matter what. Moreover, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid, which are a large part of UNH's book, are government-funded and relatively insulated from short-term economic cycles. As for the broader industry landscape, there are no meaningful moves underway to undercut or dismantle the private health insurance model. The regulatory outlook remains stable, and there are no current legislative pressures that would structurally alter the business model of companies like UNH. Importantly, this volatility in premiums is limited to the UnitedHealthcare segment. Optum UNH's faster-growing, higher margin division which continues to deliver strong performance across health services, pharmacy benefits, and data analytics. Together, this structure gives UNH a diversified revenue model that can weather temporary shocks in one segment without compromising overall earnings power and represents a significantly undervalued equity at current market prices. * TipRanks. (n.d.). UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) stock buybacks. Retrieved May 3, 2025, from This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
