Welsh independence referendum 'could absolutely happen' as Plaid leads poll
Plaid Cymru's leader Rhun ap Iorwerth says a referendum on Welsh independence could "absolutely" happen within "our lifetime". He spoke confidently about his party's prospects after a YouGov poll suggested Plaid might emerge as the dominant force in the 2026 Senedd elections, potentially securing around 30% of votes and 35 seats.
According to the same poll, Nigel Farage's Reform UK is predicted to be the second-largest party with 25% of the vote share. While addressing BBC's Walescast, Mr ap Iorwerth clarified that a referendum on Wales leaving the UK would not occur in the initial term of a Plaid-led government.
This stance marks a shift from his predecessor Adam Price's promise of a referendum within five years. However, speaking to the PA news agency, he indicated that a referendum could be part of Plaid's future agenda, contingent on gaining the Welsh electorate's trust.
"The key thing is it's up to the people of Wales. And I've many times said that I would have independence tomorrow, but it's not what I think that matters.
"It's what the people of Wales believe, and I absolutely think we can have that referendum and set us off on a different direction as a country within our lifetime." Should Plaid pursue such a referendum in future, it would be likely to need support from other parties in Cardiff Bay and at Westminster, which is unlikely to be forthcoming.
Plaid would focus on "deep problems within the NHS in Wales", as well as education, economic stagnation and poverty, should it be the party that leads the next Welsh government, Mr ap Iorwerth said.
The next Senedd election will see Welsh voters use a new proportional system to choose their representatives. Some 49 seats will be required for an outright majority, with the Senedd being expanded to 96 members. The previous system had an "in-built bias towards Labour", the Plaid leader said.
Mr ap Iorwerth added: "That changes with the new electoral system that we have in Wales, and it's a genuine case that wherever people are in Wales, the votes that they cast will contribute towards who can be leading that government next year, Plaid Cymru is putting itself forward as the party to lead that government.
"And if people want that, they can have it with me as first minister, the first non-Labour first minister, setting a different direction for governments in Wales." Parties in Wales are likely to have to co-operate following the poll, the Plaid leader admitted, but he continued to rule out a "formal relationship" with Mr Farage's Reform UK.
Mr ap Iorwerth added: "We have two conservative parties in Wales now: the Conservative Party, and the Tories on steroids that Reform are: the pro-Thatcher, the pro-Liz Truss, the pro-Trump political party that works against the interests of workers, that works against the interests of businesses in Wales.
"I just don't think that's the politics that is in the interests of Wales."
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