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New Statesman
5 days ago
- Politics
- New Statesman
The British left is coming for the Government
Photo byWhisper it as yet, but after five long years of confusion and disarray, the British left is rallying. Local political organisations are coalescing, from Chiswick to Liverpool to Newcastle. The Green Party leadership contest has become a straight fight between an energetic, 'eco-populist' left candidate, and the party's more cautious establishment. The prize is clear: local elections due next May across England's major cities, including London councils. After that, who knows. Could Labour's urban fiefdoms fall victim to the rout northern councils saw in the local elections last month? It won't be easy. Bitterly, almost viscerally unpopular as Labour may be, it is the self-styled insurgents of Nigel Farage's Reform that have been the overwhelming beneficiaries of the Starmer slump. Farage himself has been happy to pilfer from the left – a long-time Thatcherite now turned improbable friend of the welfare state. But the Reform squeeze isn't only on Starmer's Labour, who, after talking up their fiscal discipline at huge political cost are now u-turning on its most unpopular consequences. It's also a squeeze on all those on England's left who fondly imagine that the popularity of their traditional policies, from nationalisation to more welfare spending, is enough to win them votes. Instead, they're now seeing those same demands nabbed by opportunists from the radical right, precisely because they are popular. A new programme for 21st-century England will be needed, focused relentlessly on the everyday cost of living and wealth inequality. But new organisations are also needed. Peter Mandelson once spoke of a Labour left buried in a 'sealed tomb' by New Labour. This proved to be optimistic, as the Corbyn surge of the 2010s proved. And fearful of a second Corbyn-style resurrection, Starmer's operation has driven a stake through the left's heart, stuffed its mouth with garlic, placed it in a lead-lined coffin, sealed the tomb, and stationed a grim-faced 24-hour armed guard outside, gripping their pistols and blazing torches. The monster will not now escape. As a political force, the Labour left is finished. The tactic of entryism – entering the Labour party and changing it – is finished too. Instead, the party's steely-eyed Van Helsings should have been looking elsewhere. From the shadows, far away from Westminster, a terrifying new apparition is approaching. Disguised by the size of Labour's majority, the 2024 election saw the non-Labour left win its biggest parliamentary representation in British history, on its biggest vote ever. Four million voters returned nine left MPs, spread between the Greens and five independents, including Jeremy Corbyn in Islington. At the height of its success, in the late 1940s, the Communist Party won two MPs and 94,000 votes. Since the foundation of the Labour Party itself, the non-Labour left has never seen anything like this support. Against a seemingly monolithic Labour majority, this may have mattered little. Britain's perverse voting system found Keir Starmer foisted into Downing Street with a landslide majority, but with half a million fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn lost by in 2019. As a result, the party has been left with more marginal seats than ever before in its history. Fifty-one of its seats were won with a margin of less than 5 per cent. Accurately described after the election by polling expert James Kaganasooriam as a 'sandcastle majority', the turning political tide has now washed away Labour's 2024 support. The main beneficiaries, for now, are Reform, whose spectacular success in the local government elections saw them win control of previously Labour councils from Durham to Derbyshire. Its one-time heartlands in the North of England were already riddled and on the verge collapse, with Boris Johnson's demolition of this so-called 'Red Wall' in 2019 having already delivered the fatal blow. Johnson's failure to hold his new coalition together, coupled with Liz Truss' calamitous 44 days in office, saw many of Johnson's wins fall back into Labour hands five years later – but on the most tenuous and temporary basis. Demographic change, and a great, decades-long shift in the economy from manufacturing to services, has created new heartlands for the party, concentrated in inner cities and major urban areas across the country: a mix of underpaid, insecure younger workers, often with university degrees; more settled ethnic minority communities; and a solid layer of public sector employees, many of whom are now at or approaching retirement. Generally socially liberal, 15 years of persistent economic failure since the financial crisis have shoved this base increasingly to the economic left. And 25 years of failed military interventions have created a deep cynicism about Britain's role abroad – crystallised in the distance between Starmer's government and its voters on Israel. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Even before entering Downing Street, the horrors of Gaza, and Britain's complicity in them, had been a powerful solvent on Labour's new base of support. That undermined Labour's vote in 2024, and resulted in the arrival of the 'Gaza independents', the four pro-Palestinian MPs elected in the strongly Muslim areas of Leicester, Blackburn, Dewsbury and Birmingham. Combined with Labour's blunders and cruelties in office, from the Winter Fuel Payment to disability allowance cuts, the party's support has been hollowed out. Its voters won't vote, its activists aren't active, and the party's once-fearsome ground game is crumbling. There was a taste of what could be to come in Haringey last month when a Green Party candidate, Rurairdh Paton, was elected by a landslide in a solidly Labour and solidly working class ward. Tellingly, local campaigners report that Labour grew so desperate for campaigners that local councillors from Folkestone in Kent were drafted in to door-knock. It's the better-established Greens who can seize this opportunity in Labour strongholds. Zack Polanski's leadership bid, and the newly formed internal faction, Greens Organise, have already identified the potential for a breakthrough. Polling shows the Green's support to be younger, and poorer, than the other national parties. These are not the middle-class do-gooders of legend. The broader left, outside the Greens, needs to recognise how the world has changed. Rumours that Jeremy Corbyn was about to set up a new party have swirled around him since his expulsion from Labour, almost five years ago. National negotiations to establish a new party, organised between different chunks of the post-Corbyn left, have come to little. A combination of political caution, and disagreements over a new party's potential direction and leadership have so far scuppered agreement. Perhaps wisely, Corbyn himself has been wary of jumping the gun. The history of left-wing breakaways from Labour, from the Independent Labour Party in the 1930s, to Scottish Labour in the 1970s, to Respect in the 2000s, has not been a happy one. Only George Galloway has, to date, made anything like a success of it, and then only via an increasingly eccentric one-man triangulation between the economic left and 'socially conservative' right. Whatever else he may be, Jeremy Corbyn is not George Galloway. And declaring a new party will not magically reproduce his 2015 breakthrough. Cooperation across the non-Labour left is the order of the day. On the ground, this cooperation is already starting to happen. In Lancashire, Greens have banded together with the newly formed Preston Independents to become the official opposition on the County Council. Greens and Independents are working closely in Islington. Local organisations are being pulled together by prominent independent left candidates, like former mayor Jamie Driscoll in Tyneside, Faiza Shaheen in Chingford, and former ANC MP Andrew Feinstein, who came second place in Keir Starmer's own constituency of Holborn and St Pancras at the 2024 election. Green Party members in all those constituencies are working alongside the independent left. Local alliances can become a national force. Across the channel, France's New Popular Front, an alliance between forces of the traditional left, the left populist France Insoumise, and the French Greens, was pulled together in weeks on a radical programme that catapulted the alliance to top of the polls in the snap elections – and pushed Marine Le Pen's National Rally to third place. France Insoumise MP Danielle Obono spoke at the London Green Party's conference last month on the practical experience of unity. There's a desire to learn from what worked – and what did not. The next general election isn't due until 2029. But a string of local council victories next year would pave the way for an unprecedented challenge to Labour – not from the right, as the party has always had to fight, but from its radical flank. And this new movement could take parts of Labour with them: from the tone of his Guardian op-ed on Wednesday, John McDonnell already regards his party as half-lost. Far from the coming in from the cold, what was once the Labour left has a different goal: burning the house down and building something completely new. [See also: Child poverty is rallying the Labour left] Related
North Wales Live
09-05-2025
- Politics
- North Wales Live
Welsh independence referendum 'could absolutely happen' as Plaid leads poll
Plaid Cymru's leader Rhun ap Iorwerth says a referendum on Welsh independence could "absolutely" happen within "our lifetime". He spoke confidently about his party's prospects after a YouGov poll suggested Plaid might emerge as the dominant force in the 2026 Senedd elections, potentially securing around 30% of votes and 35 seats. According to the same poll, Nigel Farage's Reform UK is predicted to be the second-largest party with 25% of the vote share. While addressing BBC's Walescast, Mr ap Iorwerth clarified that a referendum on Wales leaving the UK would not occur in the initial term of a Plaid-led government. This stance marks a shift from his predecessor Adam Price's promise of a referendum within five years. However, speaking to the PA news agency, he indicated that a referendum could be part of Plaid's future agenda, contingent on gaining the Welsh electorate's trust. "The key thing is it's up to the people of Wales. And I've many times said that I would have independence tomorrow, but it's not what I think that matters. "It's what the people of Wales believe, and I absolutely think we can have that referendum and set us off on a different direction as a country within our lifetime." Should Plaid pursue such a referendum in future, it would be likely to need support from other parties in Cardiff Bay and at Westminster, which is unlikely to be forthcoming. Plaid would focus on "deep problems within the NHS in Wales", as well as education, economic stagnation and poverty, should it be the party that leads the next Welsh government, Mr ap Iorwerth said. The next Senedd election will see Welsh voters use a new proportional system to choose their representatives. Some 49 seats will be required for an outright majority, with the Senedd being expanded to 96 members. The previous system had an "in-built bias towards Labour", the Plaid leader said. Mr ap Iorwerth added: "That changes with the new electoral system that we have in Wales, and it's a genuine case that wherever people are in Wales, the votes that they cast will contribute towards who can be leading that government next year, Plaid Cymru is putting itself forward as the party to lead that government. "And if people want that, they can have it with me as first minister, the first non-Labour first minister, setting a different direction for governments in Wales." Parties in Wales are likely to have to co-operate following the poll, the Plaid leader admitted, but he continued to rule out a "formal relationship" with Mr Farage's Reform UK. Mr ap Iorwerth added: "We have two conservative parties in Wales now: the Conservative Party, and the Tories on steroids that Reform are: the pro-Thatcher, the pro-Liz Truss, the pro-Trump political party that works against the interests of workers, that works against the interests of businesses in Wales. "I just don't think that's the politics that is in the interests of Wales."
The Herald Scotland
09-05-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth talks up Welsh indyref chance
Plaid is projected to be the largest party in the Senedd following the outcome of the election, with around 30% of votes and 35 seats in the Siambr, according to a YouGov poll published on Tuesday. Nigel Farage's Reform UK would be the second largest party, with 25% of votes, according to the poll. The Plaid leader ruled out holding a referendum on Wales leaving the UK in the first term of a Plaid-led Welsh government, when speaking to the BBC's Walescast this week. READ MORE: He has previously declined to put a timeline on a referendum, after Plaid's last leader Adam Price promised such a vote within five years. But Mr ap Iorwerth told the PA news agency a referendum could form part of a Plaid government's platform for the future, once it has built trust with the Welsh electorate. 'The key thing is it's up to the people of Wales. And I've many times said that I would have independence tomorrow, but it's not what I think that matters,' Mr ap Iorwerth told PA. 'It's what the people of Wales believe, and I absolutely think we can have that referendum and set us off on a different direction as a country within our lifetime,' he added. Should Plaid pursue such a referendum in future, it would be likely to need support from other parties in Cardiff Bay and at Westminster, which is unlikely to be forthcoming. Plaid would focus on 'deep problems within the NHS in Wales', as well as education, economic stagnation and poverty, should it be the party that leads the next Welsh government, Mr ap Iorwerth said. A view of the Senedd, the Welsh Parliament building, in Cardiff Bay (Image: Geoff Caddick/PA) The next Senedd election will see Welsh voters use a new proportional system to choose their representatives. Some 49 seats will be required for an outright majority, with the Senedd being expanded to 96 members. The previous system had an 'in-built bias towards Labour', the Plaid leader said. Mr ap Iorwerth added: 'That changes with the new electoral system that we have in Wales, and it's a genuine case that wherever people are in Wales, the votes that they cast will contribute towards who can be leading that government next year, Plaid Cymru is putting itself forward as the party to lead that government. 'And if people want that, they can have it with me as first minister, the first non-Labour first minister, setting a different direction for governments in Wales.' Parties in Wales are likely to have to co-operate following the poll, the Plaid leader admitted, but he continued to rule out a 'formal relationship' with Mr Farage's Reform UK. Mr ap Iorwerth added: 'We have two conservative parties in Wales now: the Conservative Party, and the Tories on steroids that Reform are: the pro-Thatcher, the pro-Liz Truss, the pro-Trump political party that works against the interests of workers, that works against the interests of businesses in Wales. 'I just don't think that's the politics that is in the interests of Wales.'
South Wales Guardian
09-05-2025
- Politics
- South Wales Guardian
Welsh indyref ‘absolutely could happen in our lifetime', Plaid Cymru leader says
Rhun ap Iorwerth did not shy away from suggesting his party may be the leading political force in Wales following a poll which predicts Plaid will have the largest vote share in the 2026 Senedd elections. Plaid is projected to be the largest party in the Senedd following the outcome of the election, with around 30% of votes and 35 seats in the Siambr, according to a YouGov poll published on Tuesday. Nigel Farage's Reform UK would be the second largest party, with 25% of votes, according to the poll. The Plaid leader ruled out holding a referendum on Wales leaving the UK in the first term of a Plaid-led Welsh government, when speaking to the BBC's Walescast this week. He has previously declined to put a timeline on a referendum, after Plaid's last leader Adam Price promised such a vote within five years. But Mr ap Iorwerth told the PA news agency a referendum could form part of a Plaid government's platform for the future, once it has built trust with the Welsh electorate. 'The key thing is it's up to the people of Wales. And I've many times said that I would have independence tomorrow, but it's not what I think that matters,' Mr ap Iorwerth told PA. 'It's what the people of Wales believe, and I absolutely think we can have that referendum and set us off on a different direction as a country within our lifetime,' he added. Should Plaid pursue such a referendum in future, it would be likely to need support from other parties in Cardiff Bay and at Westminster, which is unlikely to be forthcoming. Plaid would focus on 'deep problems within the NHS in Wales', as well as education, economic stagnation and poverty, should it be the party that leads the next Welsh government, Mr ap Iorwerth said. The next Senedd election will see Welsh voters use a new proportional system to choose their representatives. Some 49 seats will be required for an outright majority, with the Senedd being expanded to 96 members. The previous system had an 'in-built bias towards Labour', the Plaid leader said. Mr ap Iorwerth added: 'That changes with the new electoral system that we have in Wales, and it's a genuine case that wherever people are in Wales, the votes that they cast will contribute towards who can be leading that government next year, Plaid Cymru is putting itself forward as the party to lead that government. 'And if people want that, they can have it with me as first minister, the first non-Labour first minister, setting a different direction for governments in Wales.' Parties in Wales are likely to have to co-operate following the poll, the Plaid leader admitted, but he continued to rule out a 'formal relationship' with Mr Farage's Reform UK. Mr ap Iorwerth added: 'We have two conservative parties in Wales now: the Conservative Party, and the Tories on steroids that Reform are: the pro-Thatcher, the pro-Liz Truss, the pro-Trump political party that works against the interests of workers, that works against the interests of businesses in Wales. 'I just don't think that's the politics that is in the interests of Wales.'
Rhyl Journal
09-05-2025
- Politics
- Rhyl Journal
Welsh indyref ‘absolutely could happen in our lifetime', Plaid Cymru leader says
Rhun ap Iorwerth did not shy away from suggesting his party may be the leading political force in Wales following a poll which predicts Plaid will have the largest vote share in the 2026 Senedd elections. Plaid is projected to be the largest party in the Senedd following the outcome of the election, with around 30% of votes and 35 seats in the Siambr, according to a YouGov poll published on Tuesday. Nigel Farage's Reform UK would be the second largest party, with 25% of votes, according to the poll. The Plaid leader ruled out holding a referendum on Wales leaving the UK in the first term of a Plaid-led Welsh government, when speaking to the BBC's Walescast this week. He has previously declined to put a timeline on a referendum, after Plaid's last leader Adam Price promised such a vote within five years. But Mr ap Iorwerth told the PA news agency a referendum could form part of a Plaid government's platform for the future, once it has built trust with the Welsh electorate. 'The key thing is it's up to the people of Wales. And I've many times said that I would have independence tomorrow, but it's not what I think that matters,' Mr ap Iorwerth told PA. 'It's what the people of Wales believe, and I absolutely think we can have that referendum and set us off on a different direction as a country within our lifetime,' he added. Should Plaid pursue such a referendum in future, it would be likely to need support from other parties in Cardiff Bay and at Westminster, which is unlikely to be forthcoming. Plaid would focus on 'deep problems within the NHS in Wales', as well as education, economic stagnation and poverty, should it be the party that leads the next Welsh government, Mr ap Iorwerth said. The next Senedd election will see Welsh voters use a new proportional system to choose their representatives. Some 49 seats will be required for an outright majority, with the Senedd being expanded to 96 members. The previous system had an 'in-built bias towards Labour', the Plaid leader said. Mr ap Iorwerth added: 'That changes with the new electoral system that we have in Wales, and it's a genuine case that wherever people are in Wales, the votes that they cast will contribute towards who can be leading that government next year, Plaid Cymru is putting itself forward as the party to lead that government. 'And if people want that, they can have it with me as first minister, the first non-Labour first minister, setting a different direction for governments in Wales.' Parties in Wales are likely to have to co-operate following the poll, the Plaid leader admitted, but he continued to rule out a 'formal relationship' with Mr Farage's Reform UK. Mr ap Iorwerth added: 'We have two conservative parties in Wales now: the Conservative Party, and the Tories on steroids that Reform are: the pro-Thatcher, the pro-Liz Truss, the pro-Trump political party that works against the interests of workers, that works against the interests of businesses in Wales. 'I just don't think that's the politics that is in the interests of Wales.'
