Cal Raleigh is having a historic season. Is it enough to snatch AL MVP from Aaron Judge?

New York Times

17 hours ago

Caleb (call him Cal) Raleigh is doing the impossible. It's not that he's leading the American League in homers (38) and RBIs (82), though that is impressive. Nor is it that, as a catcher, he has flirted with being the first at his position to have 30 homers, a .300 average, and 100 RBIs since Javier López in 2004. What's truly remarkable is that, in the year 2025, he's managed to get the baseball community to consider someone other than Aaron Judge for AL MVP.
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A month ago, Judge was hitting .390. The 6-foot-7, 282-pound purveyor of voluminous dingers was also raking like Rod Carew. It was as if Paul Bunyan whittled as well as he chopped down trees, and there was serious consideration that Judge could be the first man to hit .400 in a season since Ted Williams nearly 85 years ago.
Judge was (correctly) dubbed 'the best hitter on the planet' by more than one headline writer, and his MVP odds, which opened at +300, reached -1000. Mid-June or not, the MVP race felt like it was already run.
But Raleigh kept mashing, and the Mariners kept winning. The 28-year-old who had never hit better than .232 for a season and whose career highs in home runs and RBIs were 34 and 100, respectively, didn't fade. He ended June having hit .300 for the month, adding 11 bombs and 27 runs driven in, providing Judge a serious contender for the league lead in both categories. He is, as much as any normally proportioned human can, giving Judge a run for his money. Raleigh's odds are still a distant second at +300, but he's staying in the conversation and becoming the most interesting part of it.
The numbers say he's destined to return to Earth at some point, and his early July numbers could be that return (he has five July homers entering the All-Star break, but with a .135 average). But every once in a while, a player puts all their physical gifts together long enough that their brain follows suit, and belief keeps the ship afloat. Assuming that's what we're seeing, what are the chances Raleigh's career season is enough to knock Judge out of pole position for MVP?
Raleigh may lead Judge in homers, RBIs and steals, somehow, but Judge leads in everything else. His average is nearly 100 points higher, as are his on-base and slugging percentages. He's racked up 2.1 more WAR, and his OPS+ is a staggering 230 to Raleigh's heroic 190.
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To draw even in the stat race, the Mariners' catcher would need to maintain exactly what he's doing now, which is already well beyond his previous limits, and Judge would need to lose 100 points across all his slash percentages. Logically, the only way this happens is injury, but players have suffered prolific crash-outs before (though almost never players of Judge's caliber in the tail end of their prime). This would be like a hobby jogger maintaining a four-minute mile pace while the world's No. 1 runner ran in the wrong direction in the back half of the marathon.
Even if the above were to happen statistically, Raleigh would still have to win hearts and minds. Judge came in as the favorite, then promptly leaped out to a gargantuan lead. Raleigh may have steadily gained, but Judge has been in command of the MVP race since March 29, when he went 4-for-6 with three homers, a double and eight RBIs in the second game of the season.
When a player is that good that early, and voters are already leaning his way, the decision tends to get made subconsciously long before it's time to compare season numbers. Raleigh would need to overcome Judge's anecdotal and emotional lead as well as his empirical one.
Baseball is more egalitarian than it was 30 years ago when the Yankees ruled the universe, but the pinstripes still play. Compared to teams like the Mariners, the Bronx Bombers get primo exposure and constant coverage. As such, Judge's time in the spotlight is considerably higher. Add to that the Yankees and their division play in the Eastern time zone, which means a larger waking audience for games, and highlights make the early SportsCenter and evening sportscasts. If Raleigh hits two bombs and drives in three runs against the A's when the East Coast is in bed, it doesn't propel his case nearly as much as Judge doing the same thing against the Red Sox in prime time.
Much like Shohei Ohtani's pitching, Raleigh's work behind the dish is a massive multiplier for his MVP case. Everything he accomplishes offensively is elevated by the fact that he plays the most physically and mentally demanding position on the field. In addition to the toll catching takes on his body, Raleigh is responsible for game-calling, defensive positioning and navigating the ups and downs of an entire pitching staff, not to mention cutting down base runners attempting to steal bases.
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Given that he's led the league in games caught and putouts the last two seasons, as well as catching the most runners stealing last year, his defensive bona fides are established. His fielding numbers are down this season, but assuming he hits his career averages, this will still bolster his case. The MVP award is driven by bats, but if it comes to pass that the numbers are close, the tie goes to the catcher over the right fielder every time.
Judge's Q score is astronomical, so this is more about who the masses would back in this particular MVP race. While Yankees fans are legion, it's likely Raleigh is the people's champ. Judge is a redwood of a man, bigger than anything baseball has ever seen, playing for the sport's most prominent franchise. He's been MVP twice, hit 62 homers in a season (non-PED division), and has been the preeminent slugger for half a decade.
Raleigh is a scruffy-faced catcher for the Seattle Mariners, willing his way to a career year while sporting a beer league build and the nickname 'Big Dumper.' Which of those two do you think the average fan is going to gravitate toward?
Baseball writers determine the MVP, but they are fans as well, and not immune to the draw of a good underdog story. If Raleigh keeps his numbers up (and Judge's stats return to the realm of mortals), don't underestimate what impact a good narrative and a groundswell of public opinion can have on a voting body.
For players like Judge, MVPs are an eventuality. For ones like Raleigh, they're manifestations of Murphy's Law. Anything that can happen, will; it's just a matter of the right timing.
The rivers of destiny bend just so, at just the right time, and deliver them to a place heretofore inaccessible. Unfortunately for Raleigh, that is not enough, as it simply brought him to the place Judge calls home. If he hopes to win MVP in this moment of cosmic alignment, Big Dumper will need more. The waters that carried him there would also need to wash Judge from his perch.
(Photo by Alika Jenner / Getty Images)