Will the U.S. Pull Its Weight in NATO?
America's allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are set to approve a historic defense-spending increase. Is the U.S. prepared to keep pace?
President Trump campaigned on raising NATO's defense-spending target from 2% to 3% of gross domestic product. Once elected, he pressed for 5%. At the NATO summit in the Netherlands later this month, allies (including the U.S.) will pledge to spend 3.5% of GDP on 'core defense' and another 1.5% on defense-related spending such as industrial and infrastructure investments as soon as 2030.
Increasing NATO's defense spending is an overdue but welcome demonstration of collective urgency and political will. Effectively implemented, increased investment will bolster deterrence, but only if the U.S. joins Europe to meet NATO's new target. Achieving 3.5% in 2030 will require a defense budget of $1.27 trillion, roughly $380 billion more than today.
Such investment is necessary and prudent. If NATO allies need to spend 3.5% of GDP to deter and defend against Russia, the U.S. needs to spend at least that much to deal with the even greater threat posed by China. For comparison, the U.S. spent roughly 6% during the Reagan years to defeat the Soviet Union.
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