Curtice: Reform rise could damage Labour's by-election bid
His comments came as Anas Sarwar launched Scottish Labour's campaign in the constituency alongside candidate Davy Russell, insisting the 'crucial' by-election could serve as a 'launchpad' to seeing the SNP 'booted out of office' at next year's Holyrood election.
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Mr Sarwar said: 'That stark choice is: do we carry on the same path the SNP has taken us on over the last 18 years, or do we chart a different course and a better future for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse—and a better future for Scotland?'
Speaking outside Mr Russell's home in the village of Quarter, the Scottish Labour leader added: 'We're fighting this by-election with the intention to win, and we will fight the Scottish Parliament election next year with the intention to win.
'But that is all going to be down to us persuading the good people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. We've got to earn their trust, earn their support—and we want to do that for the whole of Scotland next year.'
Prof John Curtice delivers his verdict on crucial by-election
While Labour still trails the SNP in Scottish polls, Prof Curtice told The Herald this is a seat Labour 'would be expecting to win if they're having any chance of forming the next administration.'
He said the constituency should suit Labour more than the SNP.
'The question is, how much does the SNP vote fall, and does it fall enough to land into Labour's lap? But Labour could pick it up just—and it will confirm the evidence in the opinion polls that they don't have a cat's chance in hell of winning the election,' he said.
'With all due respect, Anas Sarwar does not hold a great deal of responsibility for Labour's success last July. I think it can be attributed far more to Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and the SNP.
'And the reason why the Labour vote has gone down in Scotland is that what was very heavily a mixture of anti-Tory and anti-SNP voting melted away like the snow in April, in the wake of a UK government which has lost support very rapidly across the UK—and it's lost a lot of support here in Scotland.'
He added: 'The point is that it's all about relative position, and the SNP kind of looks as though they've steadied the ship.'
The SNP's candidate is Councillor Katy Loudon, while the Liberal Democrats have selected businesswoman Aisha Mir.
The Conservative candidate is Richard Nelson, a councillor representing Larkhall on South Lanarkshire Council. He has been a member of the Netherton Covenanters Loyal Orange Lodge 233 since 2019 and previously worked as a comedy hypnotist.
Reform UK's candidate is Ross Lambie, who defected from the Conservatives only last month.
(Image: PA) Nigel FarageProf Curtice said: 'I would not be surprised if Reform pick up 10% of the vote or so—and a lot of it comes off the Tories. But again, this is part of Anas Sarwar's problem.
'Reform are picking up more votes off Labour north of the border than they are south of the border.
'That's undoubtedly because Labour's vote in Scotland is more of a protest vote than it is south of the border.
"If you voted Conservative in 2019 and then were successfully persuaded to vote Labour tactically to send a message to the SNP—but weren't that enamoured with the Tories—and now see the messing Labour are doing, you might well end up in Reform.'
Reform UK claimed its membership in Scotland has topped 10,000. It claims it now has more members in Scotland than the Tories, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Alba.
The party, which does not currently have a Scottish leader, made the announcement after placing third in the Glenrothes and Thornton council by-election in Fife, which was won by the SNP, with Labour in second.
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