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New Statesman
06-05-2025
- Politics
- New Statesman
Starmer can turn Reform's rise to his advantage
Photo by. Last week's election results have proven to be far more consequential than normal. Much of the focus (including mine) has been on the dismal results for the Tories but there is no doubt that Labour has cause for alarm too. Its decline in support was much more substantial than Labour a year after 1997 or the Conservatives a year after 2010, when our vote remained flat (helped to a large extent by a collapse in support for our coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats). Cutting winter fuel payments and disability benefits, and increasing employers' National Insurance Contributions were all, apparently, issues on the doorstep. No doubt that is all true, although to some extent this simply reveals that governing at a time of low economic growth and strained public finances is difficult. Tough choices have to be made. But this is an environment in which there are advantages to having clean hands. Reform benefited from having no record in government; the Liberal Democrats' record has now been forgotten or forgiven. The increasing inclination of voters to shop around, having repeated bouts of buyers' remorse, has contributed towards a move away from incumbents (current or recent) and the rise of multi-party politics. But, paradoxically, the changing alignment of British politics may yet work in favour of the incumbent party. The lesson from last year's general election is that, in a first-past-the-post, multi-party system, tactical voting becomes crucial. The reason that Labour ended up with a landslide victory, while the Conservatives were reduced to a rump, was the efficiency of the anti-Tory vote. Large numbers of voters worked out who was best placed to defeat the local Conservative candidate and voted for them. The election was essentially a referendum on the Tories' record in office, a referendum it emphatically lost. The next election was always likely to be more complicated with Labour as the incumbents and events such as partygate and the mini-Budget more distant. A risk for Labour, and a hope for the Conservatives, was that anti-Tory tactical voting would unwind. Even without gaining any extra support, the Tories might win additional seats as non-Conservatives simply vote for their preferred candidates. What complicates matters is the rise of Reform. The party clearly has substantial and well-motivated support, but it is also a very polarising force. Much of the public may well be motivated to vote for whoever is best placed to keep it out (47 per cent of Britons have an unfavourable view of Farage compared to 29 per cent with a favourable one). Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Most obviously, many Lib Dem or Green sympathetic voters are likely to be open to voting tactically to defeat Farage's candidates. It does not end there. On the day of the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, a senior Labour figure told me that there was anecdotal evidence of moderate Conservatives voting tactically to keep out Reform. Evidently, it was not enough, but it should alert Labour to the potential to win over support from unexpected sources. Tactical voting is essentially a negative instrument. It is used by voters seeking to prevent a candidate being elected, rather than a positive expression of support for another candidate. If an election becomes a referendum on a particular party, and overall opinion is negative towards that party, increased tactical voting can have a devastating impact, as 2024 shows us. This is not to be complacent – Reform will be able to squeeze some of the Conservative vote, especially in the 88 seats where it sits second to Labour – but the strong negative view much of the country has of Reform can be exploited. This does require Labour to think hard about how to do so. It will mean nullifying Farage's appeal on some cultural issues by closing down vulnerabilities. Parts of the liberal left are too quick to dismiss this part of the strategy but it is true to say that Labour needs to avoid giving the impression that Farage was right all along. At the same time, on its chosen issues, Labour must demonstrate greater willingness to take Reform on. Farage, for example, used highly incendiary language immediately after the Southport murders last year, language which may well have contributed to the subsequent unrest. Ministers could have been more willing and forceful in condemning this. Europe is a sensitive issue, but Labour should lean into it by arguing that Farage would reverse the work done to repair our trading relationship with our biggest market. The Reform leader's relationship with Donald Trump is also a vulnerability, albeit one that is difficult to readily exploit when the government is seeking a constructive relationship with the US. Nonetheless, Starmer can find proxies who can make sure that Farage's friendship with the unpopular US president is kept in the public eye. By 2029, it should be all too apparent from the American example that right-wing populism cannot solve society's problems. Then there will be the opportunities that accrue as a consequence of Reform being in power at a local authority level. Labour should be meticulous in pulling together examples of incompetence and ensuring that they are disseminated. In other words, Starmer should be prepared to take on Reform aggressively, even if it risks antagonising some Labour voters who have a soft spot for Farage. Last year, the overwhelmingly anti-Tory mood, plus tactical voting, was a formula for Labour success. Next time the formula might still involve tactical voting, but with a focus on keeping out Reform instead. A general election which is a referendum on Reform, rather than the record of the incumbent government, is one Labour should be able to win. Related
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Kneecap's downfall is a warning to pathetic Left-wing provocateurs everywhere
When Kneecap – the fanatically anti-Israel, anti-Tory, pro-Republican rap group from Belfast – were awarded almost £15,000 in state funding, I rolled my eyes. I thought: what a waste of taxpayers' money. Now, however, I've changed my mind. Because watching the abrupt downfall of these smug millennial pseudo-rebels has been worth every penny. In the past week, two fascinating pieces of video footage have emerged, both taken from Kneecap concerts. In one, a member of the group appears to declare: 'The only good Tory is a dead Tory. Kill your local MP!' And in the other, a member of the group appears to shout: 'Up Hamas, up Hezbollah!' Since the footage started circulating, Kneecap have been facing a furious backlash. So on Monday night, in a desperate attempt to limit the damage, the group's members released a statement that is almost hilarious in its self-pity. They claim that the footage has been 'deliberately taken out of all context', and that they are merely the innocent victims of a 'smear campaign'. But hang on, chaps. The question is: did you say the words you're alleged to have said, or not? If you did, this can't be a 'smear'. But if you didn't, why are you now offering your 'heartfelt apologies' to the families of the murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess? If you didn't tell your audience to kill MPs, then you've got nothing to apologise for, have you? My favourite part of the statement, however, is the claim that 'Kneecap's message has always been – and remains – one of love, inclusion, and hope'. I see. In which case, gentlemen, why exactly did you choose to name yourselves after an extremely brutal method of paramilitary torture? And, while we're on the subject, why does one of you always insist on wearing a balaclava? Does his mummy make him wear it, in case he catches a chill? At any rate, the statement clearly hasn't saved them. The organisers of a music festival in Cornwall have cancelled Kneecap's slot. The First Minister of Scotland has called on a Scottish music festival to ditch them, too. And a Downing Street spokesman has indicated that they won't be getting any more taxpayers' money. (Kemi Badenoch blocked the funding award for the group during her time as business secretary, only for the money to then be handed over in November last year after Sir Keir Starmer's administration conceded that withholding it had been unlawful.) Perhaps what will alarm Kneecap most of all, however, is the response from their own fans. Because, now that the group's members have insisted that they've 'never supported Hamas or Hezbollah', they're being inundated with indignant messages from Western admirers of these proscribed terrorist organisations, calling Kneecap 'sellouts' and 'cowards'. (Sample tweet: 'Wow. What a disappointment. Long live the resistance and glory to the martyrs.') For the rest of us, though, it's tremendously entertaining to watch them get their comeuppance. Let Kneecap's downfall be a warning to pathetic Left-wing provocateurs everywhere. Anyway, if they're feeling sorry for themselves, here's one small thought to console them: it could be worse. Imagine if there were a Right-wing rap group called, say, Goosestep. And imagine if video footage emerged of Goosestep's members appearing to call for the deaths of Labour MPs, and appearing to voice support for the proscribed far-Right terrorist organisation National Action. Do we think the organisers of Glastonbury would be taking this long to decide whether or not to cancel their slot? Trick question, obviously. Because such a group would never have got booked in the first place. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Kneecap's downfall is a warning to pathetic Left-wing provocateurs everywhere
When Kneecap – the fanatically anti-Israel, anti-Tory, pro-Republican rap group from Belfast – were awarded almost £15,000 in state funding, I rolled my eyes. I thought: what a waste of taxpayers' money. Now, however, I've changed my mind. Because watching the abrupt downfall of these smug millennial pseudo-rebels has been worth every penny. In the past week, two fascinating pieces of video footage have emerged, both taken from Kneecap concerts. In one, a member of the group appears to declare: 'The only good Tory is a dead Tory. Kill your local MP!' And in the other, a member of the group appears to shout: 'Up Hamas, up Hezbollah!' Since the footage started circulating, Kneecap have been facing a furious backlash. So on Monday night, in a desperate attempt to limit the damage, the group's members released a statement that is almost hilarious in its self-pity. They claim that the footage has been 'deliberately taken out of all context', and that they are merely the innocent victims of a 'smear campaign'. But hang on, chaps. The question is: did you say the words you're alleged to have said, or not? If you did, this can't be a 'smear'. But if you didn't, why are you now offering your 'heartfelt apologies' to the families of the murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess? If you didn't tell your audience to kill MPs, then you've got nothing to apologise for, have you? My favourite part of the statement, however, is the claim that 'Kneecap's message has always been – and remains – one of love, inclusion, and hope'. I see. In which case, gentlemen, why exactly did you choose to name yourselves after an extremely brutal method of paramilitary torture? And, while we're on the subject, why does one of you always insist on wearing a balaclava? Does his mummy make him wear it, in case he catches a chill? At any rate, the statement clearly hasn't saved them. The organisers of a music festival in Cornwall have cancelled Kneecap's slot. The First Minister of Scotland has called on a Scottish music festival to ditch them, too. And a Downing Street spokesman has indicated that they won't be getting any more taxpayers' money. (Kemi Badenoch blocked the funding award for the group during her time as business secretary, only for the money to then be handed over in November last year after Sir Keir Starmer's administration conceded that withholding it had been unlawful.) Perhaps what will alarm Kneecap most of all, however, is the response from their own fans. Because, now that the group's members have insisted that they've 'never supported Hamas or Hezbollah', they're being inundated with indignant messages from Western admirers of these proscribed terrorist organisations, calling Kneecap 'sellouts' and 'cowards'. (Sample tweet: 'Wow. What a disappointment. Long live the resistance and glory to the martyrs.') For the rest of us, though, it's tremendously entertaining to watch them get their comeuppance. Let Kneecap's downfall be a warning to pathetic Left-wing provocateurs everywhere. Anyway, if they're feeling sorry for themselves, here's one small thought to console them: it could be worse. Imagine if there were a Right-wing rap group called, say, Goosestep. And imagine if video footage emerged of Goosestep's members appearing to call for the deaths of Labour MPs, and appearing to voice support for the proscribed far-Right terrorist organisation National Action. Do we think the organisers of Glastonbury would be taking this long to decide whether or not to cancel their slot? Trick question, obviously. Because such a group would never have got booked in the first place.
The Herald Scotland
26-04-2025
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Curtice: Reform rise could damage Labour's by-election bid
His comments came as Anas Sarwar launched Scottish Labour's campaign in the constituency alongside candidate Davy Russell, insisting the 'crucial' by-election could serve as a 'launchpad' to seeing the SNP 'booted out of office' at next year's Holyrood election. Read more: Mr Sarwar said: 'That stark choice is: do we carry on the same path the SNP has taken us on over the last 18 years, or do we chart a different course and a better future for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse—and a better future for Scotland?' Speaking outside Mr Russell's home in the village of Quarter, the Scottish Labour leader added: 'We're fighting this by-election with the intention to win, and we will fight the Scottish Parliament election next year with the intention to win. 'But that is all going to be down to us persuading the good people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. We've got to earn their trust, earn their support—and we want to do that for the whole of Scotland next year.' Prof John Curtice delivers his verdict on crucial by-election While Labour still trails the SNP in Scottish polls, Prof Curtice told The Herald this is a seat Labour 'would be expecting to win if they're having any chance of forming the next administration.' He said the constituency should suit Labour more than the SNP. 'The question is, how much does the SNP vote fall, and does it fall enough to land into Labour's lap? But Labour could pick it up just—and it will confirm the evidence in the opinion polls that they don't have a cat's chance in hell of winning the election,' he said. 'With all due respect, Anas Sarwar does not hold a great deal of responsibility for Labour's success last July. I think it can be attributed far more to Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and the SNP. 'And the reason why the Labour vote has gone down in Scotland is that what was very heavily a mixture of anti-Tory and anti-SNP voting melted away like the snow in April, in the wake of a UK government which has lost support very rapidly across the UK—and it's lost a lot of support here in Scotland.' He added: 'The point is that it's all about relative position, and the SNP kind of looks as though they've steadied the ship.' The SNP's candidate is Councillor Katy Loudon, while the Liberal Democrats have selected businesswoman Aisha Mir. The Conservative candidate is Richard Nelson, a councillor representing Larkhall on South Lanarkshire Council. He has been a member of the Netherton Covenanters Loyal Orange Lodge 233 since 2019 and previously worked as a comedy hypnotist. Reform UK's candidate is Ross Lambie, who defected from the Conservatives only last month. (Image: PA) Nigel FarageProf Curtice said: 'I would not be surprised if Reform pick up 10% of the vote or so—and a lot of it comes off the Tories. But again, this is part of Anas Sarwar's problem. 'Reform are picking up more votes off Labour north of the border than they are south of the border. 'That's undoubtedly because Labour's vote in Scotland is more of a protest vote than it is south of the border. "If you voted Conservative in 2019 and then were successfully persuaded to vote Labour tactically to send a message to the SNP—but weren't that enamoured with the Tories—and now see the messing Labour are doing, you might well end up in Reform.' Reform UK claimed its membership in Scotland has topped 10,000. It claims it now has more members in Scotland than the Tories, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Alba. The party, which does not currently have a Scottish leader, made the announcement after placing third in the Glenrothes and Thornton council by-election in Fife, which was won by the SNP, with Labour in second.
The Independent
15-04-2025
- Entertainment
- The Independent
Britain still has free speech – as Steve Bray has shown loud and clear
S teve Bray, known to most as the 'Stop Brexit Man' after his years-long noisy campaign against Britain's departure from the European Union, has won his latest legal case. He has been cleared of failing to follow a police order, namely to stop being quite so loud in the environs of parliament. Westminster Magistrates' Court, in quiet deliberation, agreed with Bray's arguments that he has the right to protest at any given level of decibels. Deputy District Judge Anthony Woodcock said Bray 'admitted that he is 'anti-Tory' ... he believes his is an important message to disseminate. He needs the volume that he uses to get the message across from Parliament Street to the Palace of Westminster.' After nearly a decade as a fixture on the streets and public spaces around Whitehall – and too divisive and annoying to be termed a 'national treasure' – Bray has at least become a part of Britain's constitution… How did he end up in court this time? By offering a supposedly inappropriate musical accompaniment to then prime minister Rishi Sunak's entry into the House of Commons on 20 March 2024. It was not a legal argument, but Bray justified blasting the Darth Vader theme in the general direction of the Palace of Westminster on the grounds that Sunak is a Star Wars fan (a matter of public knowledge and not in doubt). When he followed up with the Muppet Show theme during Prime Minister's Questions, police confiscated his loudspeakers. Officers had previously issued Bray a map of permitted areas for his protests, using a Westminster Council by-law. But that was no match for the amateur human rights lawyer. He told them the map was inaccurate and, as an obiter dictum, that the officers could 'stick it where the sun don't shine.' If authorities now choose to appeal this week's judgment, the arguments could go all the way to the European Court of Human Rights (which, let's face it, he'd enjoy … though in his absence Westminster would be a bit more tranquil.) What does it mean for protests? It proves that, contrary to what Elon Musk and JD Vance claim, free speech is alive and well in Britain – loud and clear. Is everyone pleased by the court ruling? By no means. A price of (extremely loud) free speech is the disruption to anyone working or living in the area, who must endure a racket which, like a bad busker knocking out Oasis, could be viewed as a form of torture. In court, Bray apologised to those affected. Lee Anderson, the Tory/Brexit Party/Reform UK MP who sometimes had testy exchanges with Bray, condemned the judgment: 'As well as being a public nuisance, Steve Bray is also known as a sponging parasite who relies on dimwitted do-gooders to subsidise his lifestyle. I suspect Bray is probably a person of interest to the HMRC as are many others who scrounge an existence through political campaigning. It is time for transparency and people like Bray should publish all their donations just like a charity has to. I suspect he has trousered hundreds of thousands of pounds. It's about time he spent some of it on new clothes and toiletries.' Anderson provided no evidence for his claims, and his arguments did not address the legal right to say things that Reform UK might not like. What are Steve Bray's greatest hits? Plenty of D:Ream's 'Things Can Only Get Better' as Labour came closer to power, while Liz Truss had to compete with Kaiser Chiefs' 'I Predict a Riot' during appearances in Downing Street in her brief premiership. Most notably, Yakety Sax – used on The Benny Hill Show – eradicated any vestigial dignity during Boris Johnson's resignation statement. Where do we go from here? Protest and survive. Steve Bray's case adds to the corpus of legal protections for awkward dissent. Brian Haw, the man who spent about a decade living in a tent on Parliament Square in protest against the Iraq war, similarly survived numerous legal attempts to dislodge him. In 2005, then home secretary David Blunkett drafted an act of parliament apparently specially designed to end Haw's small and untidy encampment; the attempt failed because someone failed to make the legislation retrospective. Squares and streets around Westminster have always been the scenes of marches, protests – and the odd riot – and will continue to do so. For Bray, things can hardly get better; he'll be fine now, unless Lee Anderson ever gets to be home secretary.
