PSU theme to regain spotlight amid earnings strength: Manish Sonthalia

Time of India

19-05-2025

"According to me, the PSU theme will again come back into the limelight, you have a certain pockets of these and, of course, all the PSU names are up from their lows to say the least and that is where I stand as far the PSU pack," says
Manish Sonthalia
,
Emkay Investment Managers
.
Also, help us with your take and the latest take rather on insurance pack because I know that you will not talk stocks, but if I can name some, then Star Health as a whole is up around 22% just in the week gone by.
HDFC Life
hitting its 52-week high and even
SBI Life
seems to be catching up. Very select counters when it comes to the life insurance space. Give us some sense that what is your current take on this particular segment as well as are you still holding your positive stance on this one?
Manish Sonthalia:
Yes, very positive on both the life insurance and the
health insurance
space particularly on account of valuations and bulk of the 80C impact because individuals are transitioning from an old regime to a new regime where there is not any deduction available for life insurance.
So, given that most of the fear around the life insurance was that life insurance as a product was taken primarily because of tax breaks on 80C, I mean that has now come in the base and you are looking at pure protection as a mechanism for the life insurance companies. Valuations are very-very decent so to speak and broadly you could assume that on a long-term basis if you assume that life insurance or maybe even a health insurance is at the base case or the worst possible situation would be growing at around 15%.
Now, whether a 15% growth into the future has got priced in in the current valuation, I would tend to defer. So, from that point of view, the established life insurance names plus the major health insurance names which you took, there is going to be price increase and you are looking at valuations in and around three-time price to book.
Of course, there was pain on the underwriting segment and now that has got broadly priced in so to speak and on this current base most of the good health insurance companies, I mean I am alluding to the private ones and not the public sector ones, they would be working towards combined ratio of closer to 95-96% going into the future. Worst of the pessimism in the health insurance names according to me is again priced in.
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But let me put the spotlight on these narrative theme stocks. When you talk about the narrative theme, last year you did see that rally come about in the PSU counters be it the power space, be it defence, be it for that matter of fact railways as well, and if I could add to that list QSR space, also saw a lot of excitement when you talk over the last one, one-and-a-half years or so. Do you think they will make a comeback and should now people actually avoid or investors avoid looking at this entire narrative theme and look at select pockets where you have valuation comfort instead?
Manish Sonthalia:
The psu theme broadly according to me has again seen the worst. The PSU pack as a whole going forward is likely to outperform the markets. Already, a lot of pessimism has got built into it and the last six-nine months has been very damaging for the PSU space as a whole. It is coming back from the lows. Earnings growth broadly are intact for most of the well-known PSU and you have valuations which have got corrected.
So, according to me, the PSU theme will again come back into the limelight, you have a certain pockets of these and, of course, all the PSU names are up from their lows to say the least and that is where I stand as far the PSU pack.
I was never very bearish on PSU as a space, but now I have been more bullish because the valuations have come up and earnings growth is intact, dividend yields are very good.
As far as the QSR space is concerned, this quarter numbers again is a mixed bag. Some of the names particularly the pizza ones have delivered good numbers, but valuations are exorbitant.
The burger space, again the numbers have not come in as expected, but still keeping the faith as far as FY27 projections on some of these companies are concerned, the turnover guidance which they have given and even the operating leverage on the margin front should come through.
Of course, you cannot really expect a runaway growth because the valuations are slightly on the elevated side, but these are very decent quality businesses where if the earning growth comes through, then broadly I expect that the second half of this year would be better than the first half of this year in the QSR space and broadly if I am bullish on consumption, then this is one space which would stand out, some of the names like your Jubilant or, let us say Zomato which are there in our portfolio, we tend to stick with these guys and believe that they could deliver broadly in the medium to long term.
You have spoken about QSR. We have touched upon consumer discretionary. But what is your view when it comes to core FMCG because this time volume growth has been better than expected even though it is nominally better, but still it has been better than expected. Revenue expansion has happened in across the board. What is your take when it comes to core FMCG given that on the fundamental side, we are also expecting a very good monsoon this year and although urban demand has not picked up to the extent we would have liked it to be, it is still now picking up some ground when compared to rural demand. So, what is your take on FMCG now?
Manish Sonthalia:
The only concerning fact is the valuations vis-à-vis the growth. I mean you cannot expect more than a 10% to 12% sort of a revenue growth and, of course, companies would be vying for the volume growth per se because inflation is going to be very benign. So, it is a pick and choose where growth vis-à-vis valuation has to come into perspective. On a broad basis consumption would tend to get a lift broadly now that the IMD has predicted good monsoons even this year. Rural economy is coming out of the corner from the last two years downturn and these would help at the margin. On the headwind side in the FMCG names, it is going to be your valuations. There is nothing more to basically look into it, it is basically growth and valuations, it will be a pick and choose.
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