Netanyahu official drops bombshell: 'Decision has been made' on Gaza's future
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Yahoo
4 minutes ago
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Two children among injured in Russia's overnight attack on Kharkiv region, Ukraine says
(Reuters) -Two children were among several people injured in Russia's largest air attack on the Ukrainian town of Lozova since the war began, the head of the local administration said on Tuesday. "Critical infrastructure, apartment buildings and private homes have been damaged," Serhiy Zelenskiy, the head of the city's council, said on the Telegram messaging app. "Lozova has endured the largest attack since the beginning of the war," he said, adding several people including two children were wounded in the town in the eastern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv. The scale of the attack on the town, which had a pre-war population of about 55,000, was not immediately clear. Reuters could not independently verify Zelenskiy's report. There was no immediate comment from Russia. Both sides deny targeting civilians in the war that Russia launched with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Kharkiv region, which lies near the border with Russia, has been the target of regular Russian drone and missile attacks since the start of the war. Parts of Lozova, a town in the southern parts of the Kharkiv region, were left without power and water supply, Zelenskiy said. "We will persevere!" he added.
Bloomberg
36 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
What Is the World Going to Do About Iran's Uranium?
The US spent billions of dollars accounting for gram levels of uranium around the world since the end of the Cold War. It paid for UN monitoring and security summits while directly repatriating some 7,000 kilograms of the radioactive material from 47 countries to minimize the possibility that it could ever be used in a weapon. But on June 13, those decades of international effort were rolled back overnight. Even as Israeli attacks dealt grave damage to Iran's capacity to make new nuclear fuel, it eliminated monitoring of the Islamic Republic's vast inventory of enriched uranium. Iran's 409 kg of highly-enriched uranium could be stored in 16 transport cylinders At last count, Iran possessed 409 kg of near-bomb-grade material, along with 8,000 kg of uranium enriched to lower levels. The whereabouts of that stockpile hasn't been verified since the attacks began. Iran had warned it would take the material to a secure location if attacked. With the UN nuclear watchdog prohibited from inspecting for the first time since Iran began making fuel in the early 2000s, there's now the possibility that Tehran has taken its stockpile to a clandestine facility. By failing to account for or destroy the nuclear-fuel inventory, Israel and the US have provided Iran with 'strategic ambiguity' it didn't have before the war began — a bargaining chip in any potential negotiations over what happens next. The dilemma is how to respond. Here's a set of scenarios and options the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency could take in their approach to handling the situation. Click on the options below to see how events might unfold. Cold War Legacy The concept of strategic ambiguity was developed during the Cold War, most notably by Nobel Laureate economist Thomas Schelling, to manage uncertainty at the onset of the nuclear age. Effectively a measure of risk or threat, it allowed some level of guess work over capacity and intentions that was meant to prevent a slide toward all-out war. Israel, for example, uses it to manage perception of its own nuclear stockpile, neither denying nor confirming its existence. While intelligence agencies may be able to reduce ambiguity by using spies and analyzing satellite imagery, eliminating it altogether requires diplomacy or force. That's because nuclear material needs some level of physical verification to ensure it hasn't been diverted for military use. Less than 25 kg of highly enriched uranium is needed to construct a bomb. At last count, Iran possesses uranium enriched to various levels, which taken together is enough feedstock for two dozen weapons. Iran's Main Nuclear Fuel Making Sites After Israeli and US bombed three sites in June, governments are attempting to detect Iranian efforts to reconstitute activities The amount of ambiguity the US and Israel can tolerate is set to play a decisive role in their actions through the end of the year. How much of Iran's nuclear inventory are they willing to leave to chance? That's the question facing decision makers. Given the Trump administration insists it has obliterated Iran's nuclear program, the US and Israel may choose no further action. In such a scenario, actors would have to be highly tolerant of ambiguity, not least because the cache of uranium last seen in Iran's possession will be weapons-usable for thousands of years. Another possibility is that the US and Israel have low tolerance for ambiguity, and that they are willing to go all in on compelling Iran to verify the state and location of its uranium. In the absence of an Iranian capitulation, they will need to enforce compliance, potentially with boots on the ground for verification. Even with the most powerful weapons at their disposal, air strikes alone cannot eliminate ambiguity over Iran's fuel inventory status. Mutually acceptable, or negotiated ambiguity, is another potential outcome. A combination of remote-sensing, statistical methods and physical on-the-ground verification is used to account for material. That's what UN nuclear inspectors were doing before the attack, publishing the results every three months. Methodology This simulation applies game theory to test potential pathways. Key decision points correspond to real-world events including IAEA and UN General Assembly meetings in September, as well as the deadline to reimpose Security Council sanctions before they expire on Oct. 18. It also weighs the length of time required by diplomats and legislators to implement certain decisions. The first set of scenarios involves resolving 'ambiguity' over the location of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium: • In our 'high ambiguity' scenario, sides take a low cost wait-and-see approach that doesn't include physical verification of the uranium inventory. • In our 'mutually acceptable ambiguity' scenario, sides opt for negotiations. They include physical verification of Iran's uranium inventory at the cost of allowing some enrichment. • In our 'zero ambiguity' scenario, the option is for escalation through military confrontation to force Iran to allow physical verification of its uranium inventory. We also look at potential outcomes and costs of the strategies used by Iran and the US. Scenarios were repeated in mixed-strategy simulations to test how the dynamics between Iran and the US may evolve. Key assumptions include: • Iran is 100% committed to retaining at least some enrichment capacity because not doing so would in practice result in additional capitulation. • The US needs to be at least 50% committed to enforcing a zero-enrichment strategy to involve troops on the ground. • The scenarios are constructed around the decision points in September and October and take into account the approximate diplomatic timelines required to convene meetings, draft resolutions and vote on the decisions.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Israel's Netanyahu has decided on full occupation of Gaza, reports say
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to announce plans to fully occupy the Gaza Strip, Israeli media have reported. Netanyahu's decision will see the Israeli military expand its operations across the entire enclave, including areas where Hamas's captives are being held, i24NEWS, The Jerusalem Post, Channel 12 and Ynet reported on Monday. 'The decision has been made,' Amit Sega, chief political analyst with Channel 12, quoted an unnamed senior official in Netanyahu's office as saying. 'Hamas won't release more hostages without total surrender, and we won't surrender. If we don't act now, the hostages will starve to death and Gaza will remain under Hamas's control.' The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the reported plans and called on the international community to 'intervene urgently to prevent their implementation, whether they are a form of pressure, trial balloons to gauge international reactions, or genuinely serious'. Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to Al Jazeera's request for comment. The reports come as Netanyahu is set to convene his war cabinet on Tuesday to discuss the next steps for Israel's military in Gaza as its war in the besieged enclave nears the two-year mark. Netanyahu is facing growing international pressure to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza and halt the war amid mounting Palestinian deaths due to malnutrition and Israeli attacks. At least 74 Palestinians, including 36 aid seekers, were killed in Israeli attacks on Monday, according to medical sources in Gaza. The Israeli leader is also facing mounting domestic pressure to secure the release of Hamas's remaining captives in Gaza, following the release of footage of detainees Rom Braslavski and Evyatar David appearing emaciated. Netanyahu on Monday doubled down on his war goals, including eliminating Hamas and securing the release of the remaining captives. 'We must continue to stand together and fight together to achieve all our war objectives: the defeat of the enemy, the release of our hostages, and the assurance that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel,' Netanyahu said at the start of a regular cabinet meeting on Monday. Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan on Monday accused the United States and other Western countries of turning a blind eye to Israeli atrocities, and said that Netanyahu's government bore 'full responsibility' for the lives of the captives 'due to its stubbornness, arrogance, and evasion of reaching a ceasefire agreement, and the escalation of the war of extermination and starvation against our people'. More than 60,930 Palestinians, including at least 18,430 children, have been killed in Gaza since October 2023, according to Gaza health authorities. Forty-nine captives, including 27 who are believed to be dead, are still being held by Hamas, according to Israeli authorities.
