2025 Best Bets, Predictions for the Week by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
The Stanley Cup Final returns to Florida on Tuesday for Game 6 between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers. Sports fans will be eagerly watching as the Panthers have a chance to win the trophy again. But who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy ?
In addition to the finals, fans will keep an eye on one of the world's most prestigious tennis tournaments: Wimbledon.
Baseball also remains a hot topic as the MLB season progresses.
While the action on the ice is heating up, the excitement at the All England Club in London is still a few weeks away and the MLB season has months to run.
Let's jump into the action.
Brad Marchand to win the Conn Smythe Trophy
The series obviously isn't over, but I don't know why Brad Marchand isn't the favorite to win the Conn Smythe. Yes, Sam Bennett has 15 goals, and that's great. But Marchand scored the two biggest goals of the playoffs for Florida. Without his Game 3 overtime goal against Toronto, when the Panthers were down 2-0 in the second round, they likely wouldn't be here. Marchand also netted the OT winner in Game 2 in Edmonton, keeping the Cats from falling to 2-0 in the series — and who knows what might have happened in Games 3 and 4 if the Oilers had taken a 2-0 series lead.
Marchand has 10 goals and 10 assists, along with superior penalty killing (including a short-handed goal) and an insanely good +18 plus/minus rating for the playoffs. For the Stanley Cup Final series alone, Marchand scored six goals, including a power-play goal, one short-handed goal and two game-winners. He's a big-moment player, and if the voters are doing their jobs and not just seeing "15 goals," Marchand is an obvious choice to win the Conn Smythe at this point if the Panthers repeat as Stanley Cup champions.
As many of you know, I mentioned Marchand at 60-1 to win this on May 29, so I'm a tad invested, but the numbers and production back my thoughts up.
PICK: Brad Marchand (+410) to win the Conn Smythe Trophy
Ben Casparius to win NL Rookie of the Year
Casparius has been a savior to the injury-riddled Dodgers staff this year. He's appeared in 23 games, starting twice — a role that manager Dave Roberts says he will now continue — going 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA. However, a deeper look shows six of the 16 runs he's allowed came in a 16-0 loss to the Cubs. He has a 5-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a .217 batting average against opponents and has very good numbers in both the hard-hit and ground ball percentages. If Casparius is a mainstay in the Dodgers rotation now — even as a five-inning guy — he could put up a solid W-L record for a team which might have the best record in baseball, which will attract voters' attention.
The four players ahead of Casparius — Drake Baldwin (+220), Agustin Ramirez (+450), Matt Shaw (+800) and Jacob Misiorowski (+1000) — seem like placeholders at this point in what should be a volatile market the rest of the way. This award is pretty much there for the taking, and I wouldn't bet on any of those guys who have single digit odds.
PICK: Ben Casparius (+1100) to win NL Rookie of the Year
Madison Keys to win Wimbledon
Keys has had the best year of her career, capturing her first slam title in Melbourne, and also winning the warm-up event in Adelaide. But her first slam title also could have come last year at Wimbledon, where Keys was arguably playing the best tennis of her career. She was likely headed towards a win in the Round of 16 against Jasmine Paolini, but suffered an unfortunate hamstring injury, forcing her to retire in the third set.
Keys has won a couple of times at Eastbourne, so her grass pedigree is not surprising, given her power and style of play. No reason to worry about her grass buildup events — a semifinal loss in Queens to Tatjana Maria and a loss in Berlin to 2023 Wimbledon champ Markéta Vondroušová. It's hard to play either Coco Gauff or Iga Swiatek here. I also think the price on Aryna Sabalenka is too short — remember she didn't play Wimbledon last year because of injury. Mirra Andreeva? Who knows. The only other player I would consider betting to win is Elena Rybakina, who won in 2022. But the price on Keys is too good to pass up, and we'll await the draw to see what some of the derivative prices offer.
PICK: Madison Keys (+1600) to win Wimbledon
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @ chrisfallica .
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