Mandel's Mailbag: Nick Saban's future, Penn State pressure, top non-SEC/Big Ten games

New York Times

6 days ago

The dirty little secret of SEC media days is that for all the hoopla, for all the $10 million coaches and future No. 1 draft picks, the event is actually quite boring. We're talking four straight days, 16 schools, which means about 298 variations of 'I'm really excited about my ballclub.'
So, a sincere thank you to Greg McElroy for creating a juicy storyline out of thin air.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
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If he does return to coaching, could you see Nick Saban going to USC if the Trojans underwhelm again under Lincoln Riley?
— Don D.
I could shut down the question right here and remind everyone that Nick Saban will be 74 come this next coaching carousel, likes being on TV and has made it emphatically clear how much he detests name, image and likeness and the transfer portal.
But what fun would that be?
As I've written previously, USC is not going to pay a Jimbo Fisher-sized buyout (possibly bigger) even if Riley goes 3-9 this year. So the job only opens if Riley leaves on his own accord, which is certainly plausible.
Knowing Saban's criteria when he picked LSU and Alabama, he's going to be looking for the following: 1. A place where you can win big, 2. A location where you can dominate recruiting. 3. A school with passionate fans. USC definitely checks off the first two. The third is debatable. If you win like Pete Carroll, they'll fill the Coliseum. If you go 7-5 your first year, you'll be playing in front of 40,000 empty seats.
I'm guessing he would much prefer either to remain in the South or perhaps return to his Ohio/Michigan roots. (West Virginia has a coach.)
What jobs could feasibly open that fit those bills? Florida State, for one. That's also a hefty buyout situation, but FSU donors would be more likely to write those checks than USC's. Certainly, Florida as well if the fans turn back in the other direction on Billy Napier.
But here's one I find more intriguing — perhaps even realistic? — than all of them: Oklahoma.
You can win BIG at Oklahoma. You have zero recruiting competition in your own state. Yes, you have to go into Texas and compete with those guys, but he had to go into Florida's and Georgia's backyards all the time at Alabama. Oklahoma has sold out 159 consecutive home games (excluding 2020).
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Most notably: The program's new general manager, who is considered parallel to the head coach on the organization chart, is former Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy, a longtime NFL scout who I'd imagine spent a lot of time in Tuscaloosa over the years, given all of Saban's annual prospects. Not to mention, he spent seven years working for a mutual acquaintance of theirs: Bill Belichick.
To be clear, I am by no means predicting this to happen. In fact, Brent Venables will have a big turnaround year with quarterback John Mateer and remain standing in 2026. But he's on the hot seat for now, so it's worth considering.
One job I'm confident Saban will not consider: Auburn. But it would be hilarious to see fans who hated his guts for 17 years suddenly go to the mat for the guy.
With the staff and NIL fund for returning players at Penn State, did James Franklin sign his own death warrant if they do not beat Ohio State and/or make it to the national championship game? Penn State paid a lot to keep Drew Allar, Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Dani Dennis-Sutton and many others. He has the highest-paid coordinator duo in the country with Jim Knowles ($3.1 million) and Andy Kotelnicki ($1.7 million). Is Franklin feeling the outside pressure? — Anthony C.
Franklin strikes me as someone who is always feeling the pressure, whether real or imagined. This is a guy who is known for getting defensive over criticism, has had multiple confrontations with hecklers in the stands — including one at a spring game, and, after last year's Fiesta Bowl win over Boise State, said, 'Sometimes it feels like all the media and people on blogs — I feel like I work for them sometimes.'
But in terms of actual job pressure? Not a chance. In what's becoming a recurring theme in this column, his buyout is nearly $50 million. Like Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly (and, at one time, Mel Tucker), he was part of the Enormous Long-Term Contract Craze of 2021. We're only entering Year 4 of his 10-year contract.
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But also: He's coming off the program's best season in two decades and is 34-8 over the past three seasons. The man has earned some runway.
Expectations are understandably sky-high for this season. I will be picking them to reach the national championship game. Say what you will about Allar, but he threw for 3,327 yards last year with only one reliable target (who was his tight end). Now he's got a true No. 1 receiver in Syracuse transfer Trebor Pena. Singleton and Allen should be this season's top running back tandem. And the defense was ranked in the top 10 nationally for four straight years — even before the arrival of renowned coordinator Knowles.
Of course, every team in the country has at least one big question mark, and arguably Penn State's biggest is Franklin himself. You all know the history: 1-18 against top-five foes, 4-20 against the top 10. Those are atrocious numbers. Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman already has more top 10 wins in just three seasons as a head coach (five) than Franklin has in 11 seasons at Penn State.
I'd just caution people, though: A lot of great coaches couldn't win the Big One — right up until they did. Arguably, there was no bigger perceived choke artist in the country heading into last year's College Football Playoff than Ryan Day, and then he went and won the whole thing. To alleviate the pressure, Franklin needs to either end his eight-year losing streak to Ohio State, then go far in the CFP, or, if he loses to the Buckeyes again, have a postseason run like Freeman did, where he knocks off several respected opponents in a row (preferably from the SEC). Obviously, Day's run would be even better.
If he does neither, then we'll be right back here next summer having the same conversation.
I'm a Penn State fan, but these are the other teams I want to watch this season and why:
1. South Carolina — LaNorris Sellers
2. Texas — Arch Manning
3. Colorado — Deion's teams are always fun
4. Texas Tech — Love the Big 12
5. Ohio State — Jeremiah Smith
Any other suggestions for fun teams to watch? — Al
Sure, I'll give you five more. (In addition to Oklahoma, which I've mentioned quite a bit lately.)
1. Notre Dame: An offense once known primarily for its tight ends could legitimately be one of the most explosive in the country. You got a peek of that in the CFP with breakout performances from running back Jeremiyah Love and receiver Jaden Greathouse, and the Irish added Virginia's Malachi Fields.
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2. Utah: Former New Mexico QB Devon Dampier is going to be a heckuva lot of fun to watch. He ran for 207 yards against Wyoming last season, 193 in an upset of Washington State. Kyle Whittingham brought in New Mexico's offensive coordinator, too: former BYU quarterback Jason Beck.
3. UCLA: We're all curious to see Nico Iamaleava, right? DeShaun Foster also has Cal big-play running back Javian Thomas. And they'll be playing for new offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri, who revitalized Pitt's offense last season.
4. Navy: Quarterback Blake Horvath is the new Keenan Reynolds. He and the Midshipmen finished last season taking it to Army and knocking off Oklahoma in their bowl game. They could be 8-0 heading into South Bend.
5. Iowa: Yes, Iowa! The Hawkeyes will be led by quarterback Mark Gronowski, the former FCS player of the year, two-time national champion and 42-5 starter at South Dakota State. He's Iowa fans' reward for surviving the Spencer Petras and Deacon Hill eras.
Will the Aggies be 8-4 again? — Doug J.
No, not likely. New Mexico State was 3-9 last year and really misses Jerry Kill.
When people complain about some of the recent changes in college football, they are often told, 'But the sport is more popular than ever, as measured by TV ratings, revenue, etc.' Do you have a sense of what percentage of fans might feel like me: still as interested/invested as ever while also feeling like many of the changes have made the sport worse? And is there a European Super League-style breaking point where the fans say 'no more'? — Matthew W.
Oh, you're definitely the norm. Maybe one of 80 percent? 90? I have a hard time believing even the most rabid, loyal, passionate college football fan wakes up in the morning and says, 'Man, do you know what I just love? Eighteen-team conferences, an unnecessarily complicated Playoff format and every player on every team being an annual free agent.'
As for the Super League analogy — the way European soccer fans responded to that short-lived creation was pretty much the exact inverse of the way college football fans handle realignment. In that case, fans of the elite clubs organizing the money-grab breakaway actually sided with fans of the clubs that would be left behind. So basically, nobody wanted it. Now contrast that with the recent realignment wave. Not a lot of tears shed by Oklahoma for Oklahoma State, Oregon for Oregon State, etc. Eat or be eaten.
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As I've said before, I wouldn't blame fans of left-behind teams outside of the Big Ten and SEC were they to throw in the towel on this sport and say, enough. But the reason those ratings, revenue, etc., remain so high is that Ohio State/Michigan/Alabama/Georgia fans aren't reducing their consumption of college football in the slightest. Which, if both trends continue to hold true, could actually move the sport closer, not farther, from its own Super League model.
Who are your most disappointing coaching hires based on the success you believed, and predicted, the coach would have, and the actual results? — Brad, Wayne
Brad actually asked for my top 10 in each category, but in the interest of brevity …
Most disappointing:
• Scott Frost at Nebraska: 16-31 at his alma mater after taking UCF to a 13-0 season. But at least we now know it was solely because Nebraska was a 'bad job.'
• Rich Rodriguez at Michigan: 15-22, including a 3-9 debut season, after going 60-26 with four Big East titles at West Virginia. This was the textbook definition of 'bad fit.)
• Lincoln Riley at USC: This one could prove premature, but 26-14 to this point is far below what any of us expected when it landed Oklahoma's 55-10, four-time Big 12 champ.
• Chip Kelly at UCLA: I wasn't expecting Oregon redux, but certainly a much bigger splash than 35-34, including 26-26 in the Pac-12, the same league he dominated in Eugene.
• Mike Price at Alabama: The guy took Washington State to two Rose Bowls. How was I to know he wouldn't even make it to his first preseason camp.
Honorable mention: Bret Bielema at Arkansas and Tom Herman at Texas.
A few weeks ago, you answered a question about trying to attend the best game every week this season while only going to each stadium once. That was, let's be honest, HEAVILY influenced by the Big Ten and SEC. What if you had to do the same thing this season, but not a single Big Ten or SEC team can be involved? Where would you go each week? — Ryan W.
A lot of you didn't love that I didn't earnestly answer this question last week, and I take your feedback seriously. So, here we go …
• Aug. 31: Notre Dame at Miami. It's hard to call this a rivalry, but it's a glamour matchup with some spice in its history. Not to mention the debuts of CJ Carr and Carson Beck.
• Sept. 6: UConn at Syracuse. I've never covered either a UConn football game or a Syracuse home game. (Though I did cover an NCAA basketball regional at the then-Carrier Dome.) Let's check both off the bucket list.
• Sept. 13: Pitt at West Virginia. The most obvious choice on the whole list. It's Rich Rod's return to the Backyard Brawl for the first time since his stunning 13-9 loss in 2007. And amazingly, the game happens to fall on 9-13.
• Sept. 20: SMU at TCU. Arizona State-Baylor also tempted me, but this would be my first Battle for the Iron Skillet, in what is currently the last scheduled edition of the 104-year-old rivalry. Should be fun.
• Sept. 27: BYU at Colorado. At long last, a trip to Folsom Field. Deion. Ralphie's run. And a chance to see whether the Cougars can still contend without Jake Retzlaff.
• Oct. 4: Clemson at North Carolina. Dabo vs. Bill is so intriguing, it managed to make both lists.
• Oct. 11: Arizona State at Utah. I told you Dampier and the Utes are a team to watch this season. They're playing the reigning Big 12 champs. And Rice-Eccles is one of the most underrated atmospheres in the sport.
• Oct. 18: USC at Notre Dame. If I hadn't already seen BYU and Utah, I might have gone to the Holy War. But as I wrote for the previous list, I've got to catch a USC-Notre Dame game while I still can.
• Oct. 25: Kansas State at Kansas. Oh, heck yeah. Never in a million years did I think I'd have cause to attend a Sunflower Showdown, much less an Avery Johnson-Jalon Daniels showdown.
• Nov. 1: Fresno State at Boise State. You know I'd make it to the Blue at some point, and it might as well be for one of the best rivalries in all of G5. (I'm still not using G6 yet.)
• Nov. 6: Georgia Southern at Appalachian State. I want to check out a big Sun Belt game at some point, so why not the Deeper Than Hate rivalry? I might tack on a trip to Clemson-Florida State on Saturday if the Noles aren't 3-5.
• Nov. 15: Notre Dame-Pitt: Hopefully, you guys don't get on me for too much Notre Dame. These Irish games all fit the stated criteria. And they're very good.
• Nov. 18: UMass-Ohio. I didn't love any of the Saturday games, so this is my #MACtion week. And that being the case, I might as well go full-on Sickos Committee. Peden Stadium, here I come.
• Nov. 29: Notre Dame at Stanford. The Cardinal could be 2-9, that's fine, it's a home game for me. I can even watch Ohio State-Michigan from my couch before heading over because there will be zero traffic.
• Dec. 5: Conference USA championship game. Why not?
• Dec. 13: Army-Navy in Baltimore. Can't finish stronger than that.
Having now completed this exercise, I want to profusely apologize for not doing it the first time. This itinerary would be a ridiculously fun way to spend the 2025 season. I'll watch the SEC/Big Ten in these stadiums' tailgate lots.