2025 NBA playoff odds: 'Time for the 'dogs to have their day'

Fox Sports

07-05-2025

Generally speaking, the past few months have been fantastic for the public betting masses. They cleaned up regularly on favorites in NFL odds, then made a pile of cash on favorites in March Madness odds.
It took much longer than oddsmakers anticipated, but the pendulum finally swung — at least for a couple of days — on NBA playoff odds. Underdogs are 5-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) through the first five games of the second round.
"I'm not that surprised, and the reason I say that is because, over the past five months, we've had a lot of chalk winning, with football and the NCAA Tournament," said Johnny Avello, director of operations for DraftKings Sportsbook. "There will always be a time when there's a switching of the guard. This was that time for the 'dogs to have their day."
The run of upsets is creating interesting betting opportunities for the NBA playoffs. Avello helps dive more into those prospects.
Second-Round Switcheroo
It all started Sunday with Game 1 of the Indiana Pacers-Cleveland Cavaliers series. The Pacers were 8.5-point road underdogs and won outright 121-112. Then it continued on Monday and Tuesday: The New York Knicks, also 8.5-point road underdogs in Game 1, shocked the Boston Celtics 108-105 in overtime.
The Denver Nuggets, 10.5-point Game 1 road underdogs, sank the Oklahoma City Thunder 121-119, on Aaron Gordon's final-seconds 3-pointer.
Golden State dumped Minnesota 99-88 in Game 1, with the Warriors 6-point road underdogs.
So, in all four second-round Game 1s, underdogs won outright, the first time that's ever happened in the NBA. And, for good measure, in Pacers-Cavs Game 2 on Tuesday, Indiana rallied from 20 down to win 120-119 on a Tyrese Haliburton 3-pointer, with the Pacers 5.5-point 'dogs.
Where bettors can most likely take advantage is with series odds on the Celtics and Thunder. Prior to Game 1, Boston was a hefty -800 favorite to win the series vs. New York, while OKC was -700 to win the series vs. Denver.
Now, it's Celtics -340 and Thunder -290.
"Now, bettors have the opportunity to bet two favorites at a much shorter price. And they're doing it. We're seeing some Celtics money and some OKC money," Avello said.
And the opportunity isn't just with straight bets.
Parlaying the Favorites
Oklahoma City put up the NBA's best regular-season record, at 68-14 SU, then swept Memphis 4-0 in the first round. Boston was 61-21 SU in the regular season and dispatched Orlando 4-1 in the first round.
Parlaying both those teams to win their second-round series, now that the odds are a little easier to stomach, could be worth your while. And if you really want to get frisky — there's a better chance you'll lose your bet, but the payout is better if you win — you could even add in Cleveland, which opened as a -400 series favorite vs. Indiana and is now a +175 underdog.
But Avello advices proceeding with caution.
"It's there for bettors, and it's being done by some," he said. "You probably feel confident in the Celtics. It's hard to believe the Knicks could beat the Celtics. But the problem with being confident in that parlay bet is that you don't feel as good about the other two teams.
"OKC is just starting to come into its own, and it's the same with the Cavs. Plus, the Nuggets have been in this position recently. They have the pedigree."
Indeed, Denver won the NBA championship in 2023.
"I think we'll see more money on the Celtics, parlayed lightly with the others, or just straight bets on the Celtics," Avello said. "Parlaying two or three of them doesn't seem as sure, in the bettors' eyes. I don't know if they're feeling that, outside of the Celtics series."
Two-Way Wagering
Thanks to the second-round underdog run, there is another option: backing both sides in series odds.
"We saw customers bet the Knicks and Nuggets pretty good at +550 and +500, respectively, before Game 1," Avello said. "If you took +550 with the Knicks, and now you can lay -340 with the Celtics, you can get off your spot. You put yourself in a guaranteed spot where you can't lose."
The operative words there: "Can't lose." Meaning, the worst-case scenario is to break even, and the other scenario is making a couple hundred bucks.
For example: If, pre-series, you put $100 on the Knicks +550, then you could now come back on the Celtics -340 for $340. If New York wins, then you'd win $550, minus the $340 losing Celtics bet, for a total profit of $210. If Boston wins, then you'd win $100, but lose $100 on the Knicks wager, so you'd break even.
And if you wanted to lock in a little profit, then you've got a narrow window there, too, if you do the math.
But let's be honest here: Those strategies are only if you're completely risk-averse. And if you bet a hundred bucks on the Knicks +550, then you're not risk-averse; you did so because you want to turn a little into a lot.
So you're probably better off skipping all that math. Let it ride and hope for a Knicks or Nuggets upset.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com . He previously worked for Covers. Follow him on Twitter @ PatrickE_Vegas .
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