logo
Older people in crosshairs as government restarts Social Security garnishment on student loans

Older people in crosshairs as government restarts Social Security garnishment on student loans

Chicago Tribune15-05-2025

NEW YORK — Christine Farro has cut back on the presents she sends her grandchildren on their birthdays, and she's put off taking two cats and a dog for their shots. All her clothes come from thrift stores and most of her vegetables come from her garden. At 73, she has cut her costs as much as she can to live on a tight budget.
But it's about to get far tighter.
As the Trump administration resumes collections on defaulted student loans, a surprising population has been caught in the crosshairs: Hundreds of thousands of older Americans whose decades-old debts now put them at risk of having their Social Security checks garnished.
'I worked ridiculous hours. I worked weekends and nights. But I could never pay it off,' says Farro, a retired child welfare worker in Santa Ynez, California.
Like millions of debtors with federal student loans, Farro had her payments and interest paused by the government five years ago when the pandemic thrust many into financial hardship. That grace period ended in 2023 and, earlier this month, the Department of Education said it would restart 'involuntary collections' by garnishing paychecks, tax refunds and Social Security retirement and disability benefits. Farro previously had her Social Security garnished and expects it to restart.
Farro's loans date back 40 years. She was a single mother when she got a bachelor's degree in developmental psychology and when she discovered she couldn't earn enough to pay off her loans, she went back to school and got a master's degree. Her salary never caught up. Things only got worse.
Around 2008, when she consolidated her loans, she was paying $1,000 a month, but years of missed payments and piled-on interest meant she was barely putting a dent in a bill that had ballooned to $250,000. When she sought help to resolve her debt, she says the loan company had just one suggestion.
'They said, 'Move to a cheaper state,'' says Farro, who rents a 400-square-foot casita from a friend. 'I realized I was living in a different reality than they were.'
Student loan debt among older people has grown at a staggering rate, in part due to rising tuitions that have forced more people to borrow greater sums. People 60 and older hold an estimated $125 billion in student loans, according to the National Consumer Law Center, a six-fold increase from 20 years ago.
That has led Social Security beneficiaries who have had their payments garnished to balloon by 3,000% — from approximately 6,200 beneficiaries to 192,300 — between 2001 and 2019, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
This year, an estimated 452,000 people aged 62 and older had student loans in default and are likely to experience the Department of Education's renewed forced collections, according to the January report from CFPB.
Debbie McIntyre, a 62-year-old adult education teacher in Georgetown, Kentucky, is among them. She dreams of retiring and writing more historical fiction, and of boarding a plane for the first time since high school. But her husband has been out of work on disability for two decades and they've used credit cards to get by on his meager benefits and her paycheck. Their rent will be hiked $300 when their lease renews. McIntyre doesn't know what to do if her paycheck is garnished.
She floats the idea of bankruptcy, but that won't automatically clear her loans, which are held to a different standard than other debt. She figures if she picks up extra jobs babysitting or tutoring, she could put $50 toward her loans here and there. But she sees no real solution.
'I don't know what more I can do,' says McIntyre, who is too afraid to check what her loan balance is. 'I'll never get out of this hole.'
Braxton Brewington of the Debt Collective debtors union says it's striking how many older people dial into the organization's calls and attend its protests. Many of them, he says, should have had their debts cancelled but fell victim to a system 'riddled with flaws and illegalities and flukes.' Many whose educations have left them in late-life debt have, in fact, paid back the principal on their loans, sometimes several times over, but still owe more due to interest and fees.
For those who are subject to garnishment, Brewington says, the results can be devastating.
'We hear from people who skip meals. We know people who dilute their medication or cut their pills in half. People take drastic measures like pulling all their savings out or dissolving their 401ks,' he says. 'We know folks that have been driven into homelessness.'
Collections on defaulted loans may have restarted no matter who was president, though the Biden administration had sought to limit the amount of income that could be garnished. Federal law protects just $750 of Social Security benefits from garnishment, an amount that would put a debtor far below the poverty line.
'We're basically providing people with federal benefits with one hand and taking them away with another,' says Sarah Sattelmeyer of the New America think tank.
Linda Hilton, a 76-year-old retired office worker from Apache Junction, Arizona, went through garnishment before COVID and says she will survive it again. But flights to see her children, occasional meals at a restaurant and other pleasures of retired life may disappear.
'It's going to mean restrictions,' says Hilton. 'There won't be any travel. There won't be any frills.'
Some debtors have already received notice about collections. Many more are living in fear. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order calling for the Department of Education's dismantling and, for those seeking answers about their loans, mass layoffs have complicated getting calls answered.
While Education Secretary Linda McMahon says restarting collections is a necessary step for debtors 'both for the sake of their own financial health and our nation's economic outlook,' even some of Trump's most fervent supporters are questioning a move that will make their lives harder.
Randall Countryman, 55, of Bonita, California, says a Biden administration proposal to forgive some student debt didn't strike him as fair, but he's not sure Trump's approach is either. He supported Trump but wishes the government made case-by-case decisions on debtors. Countryman thinks Americans don't realize how many older people are affected by policies on student loans, often thought to be the turf of the young, and how difficult it can be for them to repay.
'What's a young person's problem today,' he says, 'is an old person's problem tomorrow.'
Countryman started working on a degree while in prison, then continued it at the University of Phoenix when he was released. He started growing nervous as he racked up loan debt and never finished his degree. He's worked a host of different jobs, but finding work has often been complicated by his criminal record.
He lives off his wife's Social Security check and the kindness of his mother-in-law. He doesn't know how they'd get by if the government demands repayment.
'I kind of wish I never went to school in the first place,' he says.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Historian Federico Finchelstein: Trump's "abuse of the law fits an old autocratic pattern"
Historian Federico Finchelstein: Trump's "abuse of the law fits an old autocratic pattern"

Yahoo

time33 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Historian Federico Finchelstein: Trump's "abuse of the law fits an old autocratic pattern"

The Age of Trump wrapped itself in the flag of false patriotism while simultaneously destroying America's sacred civic myths about its national greatness and the permanence of its democracy. This paradox has left many, white Americans in particular, dizzy as they are forced to confront the harmful consequences caused by their belief in a country that never existed. President Ronald Reagan famously talked about a 'new day in America' as he encouraged the American people to shrug off their old cynicism and to embrace a new optimism. So many Americans believed that their country was truly 'a shining city on the hill' and a beacon of democracy and freedom for the world. There is also the common belief in the fundamental decency and goodness of the American people and that such 'universal values' would make the likes of President Trump and other such demagogues an impossibility, as they were judged to be incompatible with the national character and temperament of the American people. In total, the ascent of the Age of Trump and the authoritarian fake populist MAGA movement has revealed the hollowness of these myths and narratives. So where do the American people go from here as the authoritarian tide continues to rapidly rise in their country? Federico Finchelstein is a leading expert on fascism, populism and dictatorship and professor of history at the New School for Social Research and Lang College in New York City. He is the author of seven books on fascism, populism, Dirty Wars, the Holocaust and Jewish history in Latin America and Europe. Finchelstein's most recent book is 'The Wannabe Fascists: A Guide to Understanding the Greatest Threat to Democracy.' In this conversation, Finchelstein explains how Donald Trump and his forces represent what he describes as 'wannabe fascism' and the specific type of danger that such autocrats and aspiring tyrants pose to a failing Western democracy. Finchelstein also reflects on the danger caused by how 'respectable' elites and other mainstream voices in the political class and news media were and continue to normalize Trumpism because they are not (yet) being targeted in the same way as undocumented people and other marginalized communities. At the end of this conversation, Federico Finchelstein warns that Donald Trump and his forces have moved at a very fast rate to consolidate power, but that their victory is not guaranteed — especially if pro-democracy Americans and their leaders finally decide to commit themselves earnestly instead of being bystanders who are mostly looking away. How common or distinct is America's experience with democratic backsliding and democracy collapse as compared to other countries? This belief in exceptionalism is both American and part of a global history. All countries have a myth of their own uniqueness. America's experience with the erosion of democratic beliefs and experiences is quite common at the level of everyday practice. Intolerance, racism and violence have always been part of modern global history, this country included. However, at the federal level, Trumpism represents a change from previous norms and administrations. It is way more disruptive. Extreme forms of populism that are oriented towards fascism are now at the helm of the most powerful country in the world. Trumpism is more anti-democratic than its predecessors, and it also exerts a big influence outside of the United States. Trumpism is toxic for democratic life here in the United States and around the world. Donald Trump has now been back in power for more than 100 days. Are things as you expected? Better? Worse? I am not shocked by the extremism of Trumpism. But the Trump administration has failed in many ways, and yet it will keep trying to degrade American democracy as much as it can. A troubling question is, how will Trump and MAGA escalate their attacks on democracy and the rule of law to remain in power? I am very pessimistic in this regard. It is always more dangerous when totalitarians rule in the face of imminent defeat. Trump has clearly not yet achieved that level of power — I emphasize "yet". This explains why Donald Trump and his administration and forces more broadly are not as bold as they could be in terms of advancing Trump's goal of destroying constitutional democracy. Where are we in the story of the Age of Trump and his return? We do not have the wisdom of hindsight that future historians will have. My own view, an educated guess of sorts, is that we are in the middle, at least, of Trump's radicalization towards fascism. The American people were repeatedly warned about the calamity that would befall the United States if Donald Trump were put back in power. Why didn't they listen to the warnings? Many people do not care about the harm that Trumpism is causing democracy. Many of the Trump followers are hardcore, diehard believers in fascism in its varied forms and the quest for total domination that is fueled by hatred. But many other Trump supporters, a majority of them, are just hoping for a better economic situation. It is dubious that Trump's policies will create that outcome. And of course, those Trump supporters have ignored or otherwise put aside many of the most troubling dimensions of Trumpism, such as racism, nativism, sexism and wanton cruelty. At some point, the Trump supporters who are not the diehards and de facto cultists will recognize that they voted against their own interests. This is part of the history of fascism and dictatorship. Unfortunately, history shows us that such realizations often come very late in the game after there has been a lot of suffering inflicted on the country. The centrists, institutionalists and other establishment voices were very wrong about Donald Trump and his MAGA authoritarian populist movement's rise to power. These errors began in 2015, continued in the years to follow, and were fully exposed when so many of these 'respectable voices' continued to claim that there was no way Donald Trump could win in 2024. Per their logic, 'the American people would never do such a thing!' Alas, here we are. What does that dynamic look like in other countries when the so-called respectable voices are so wrong? Are they discredited when the autocrat-authoritarian takes power — and with widespread popular support? One of the key problems is how Trumpism is enabled by normalization. This represents the opposite of understanding the reality and facts of what is happening. Many scholars and pundits on the center as well as the right and the left denied the fascist dimensions of Trumpism. They kept trying to locate Trump as part of an older continuity and tradition of American presidents and other leaders. Trump is separate from that democratic tradition. These pundits, scholars and other public voices had a range of responses to being so wrong. Some of them recognized their mistake, but just want to move on and not have to explain their error and how they arrived at such incorrect conclusions. Others are telling the American people not to worry that much about Trump because it won't get that bad, and that Trump is not the real problem or danger anyway. The real problem and danger is that liberal democracy itself is flawed. That, too, is not entirely correct. I have a different perspective. When I was a kid, I lived under a gruesome dictatorship in Argentina. As a historian but also as a citizen, I never forget the key difference between an imperfect democracy and a total dictatorship. It is always fascinating to observe how these normalizing views are presented from a place of privilege and far away from the obvious victims of repression and demonization. If you never interact with the victims, it is harder to notice the change. Is America now in the grips of authoritarianism? If so, what type? Moreover, why were so many in the news media and political class afraid to use the 'f-word,' i.e., fascism, when it was readily apparent years ago that Donald Trump and his anti-democracy movement fit that definition. In my own work, I describe the Age of Trump and this version of authoritarian populism as 'wannabe fascism.' Wannabe fascism is an incomplete version of fascism, it is characteristic of those who seek to destroy democracy for short-term personal gain but are not fully committed to the fascist cause. As I explain in my books, the more we know about past fascist attempts to deny the workings of democracy, the more alarming these wannabe fascists appear. There have been many public discussions of the so-called authoritarian's playbook and how Donald Trump and his agents are following it very closely. What are some specific examples? Some of them are learned in the ways of fascism, others, like the leader himself, are intuitively antidemocratic, but the effects are the same, namely, the irrational rule of a leader who would like to rule as a king or dictator. The examples are many and they range from deportations for racist/and or other authoritarian ideological reasons, attacks against the press, attempts to destroy the independence of universities, the replacement of legality with manipulations of the law in the name of the leader and the attacks against idea and the practice of anti-racism and in favor of diversity. And last but certainly not least, are the events of Jan. 6 and the larger attempt to usurp democracy. Historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat recently warned that the speed of Donald Trump and his forces' attacks on democracy and civil society is more like a coup than autocratic capture. Do you agree? My friend and colleague Professor Ben-Ghiat is absolutely right! This is not a gradual process. It is unclear, yet, exactly what type of authoritarian end goals they want or will be able to reach. Do they want a full-on fascist dictatorship? An elected populist autocracy? Traditional tyranny? What is clear is that Donald Trump and his MAGA forces and their allies want to leave constitutional democracy behind. I don't want to be too strict with path dependency. But was there a moment(s) when Trump's return to power could have been stopped? Or was this democracy crisis and now the rise of naked fascism and authoritarianism more probable than not? What I focus on is that the architects and visionaries who did the intellectual work never faced justice for their role in the events of Jan. 6 and the larger attempt to nullify the results of the 2020 election. This is a key ingredient of the success of Trumpism. Without the link between history and justice, democracy cannot properly function or expand. The opposite happened, and we can now see the horrible consequences of these mistakes. The news media and free press are supposed to function as the Fourth Estate and the guardians of democracy. How would you assess the American mainstream news media's performance in that regard? The mainstream American news media continues to normalize Trumpism when it is labeled or framed as a 'conservative' or 'center-right' movement. Trumpism is radical and revolutionary. We are witnessing a new ultra-right populist phenomenon in the form of Trumpism and MAGA that is close to fascism. The extremism must be emphasized when discussing it so that the American people understand the dire reality that they are facing. The American news media need to put more history and context into their discussions of the Age of Trump and the attacks against democracy. This would also involve interviewing and otherwise featuring more scholars and other real experts. In your conversations with colleagues in higher education, what is the environment like now, given the Trump administration's attacks? There is, of course, the desired and planned chilling effect. There are attacks on media and universities, legal firms, judges, and others across civil society and the country's democratic and governing institutions. As I see it, what is even more troubling and deeply concerning is how the American people, the majority, are becoming increasingly numb to the abnormal behavior of Trump and his allies. Expert voices and others who have a trusted platform must continue to sound the alarm to wake the American people up from their complacency about Trumpism and the extreme danger it represents to the nation. Going beyond language and concepts, what are some practical, day-to-day things that the average American can do to defend democracy and civil society? It is critically important to be informed and alarmed about the extreme dimensions of Trumpism. In practice, we all need to continue reading independent media accounts of what is going on. We need to defend the independence of institutions and the separation of powers. I think it is important to oppose anti-democratic attempts by defending key dimensions of democracy and not giving up out of frustration and exasperation. This involves voting but also convincing others to do so. It also involves clearly and peacefully expressing one's own positions in conversations, in the streets and on social networks. History demonstrates that the worst thing we can do vis-à-vis wannabe dictators is being silent and apathic. What are some books, articles, creative work, films, movies, etc. that you recommend to those Americans who are trying to make sense of Trump's rise to power and the ascendant authoritarianism and fascism in this country? I would recommend novels such as "It can't happen here' or the recent movie about Trump and his relationship to Roy Cohn. The works of Hannah Arendt on totalitarianism and obedience are essential readings as well, especially her classic book On the Origins of Totalitarianism. I would also recommend the analysis of Nazi language by Viktor Klemperer, 'The Language of the Third Reich.' I also believe that the works of Latin American writers such as Jorge Luis Borges or Roberto Bolaño are of key importance in understanding the logic of fascism. I would recommend movies like the Argentines' 'The Official Story' and 'The Secret in their Eyes' to understand how important it is to know the links between history and legality when confronting propaganda, demonization and violence. I also think the second season of the Star Wars series 'Andor', starring Diego Luna, offers an excellent portrayal of the authoritarian manipulation of the truth through lies and propaganda. It is really well done and quite entertaining as well! The graphic novel "Persepolis" by Marjane Satrapi is also an excellent representation of how the Iranian dictatorship distorts the lives of an entire population. The novel focuses on the life of a young woman who resists in her own way. As different from the United States as all these cases are, there are still troublesome connections. The United States is becoming more and more like those real and fictional contexts where fascism and dictatorship are part of the picture, and a government wants its people to be less diverse and less tolerant of others. As you see it, what is the most disturbing aspect of Trump's return to power during these first four months? For fascists, what the leader wants is more legitimacy than legality, because while the former was the result of a cult of heroism and leadership principle, the latter was regarded as artificial and even boring. For example, this meant that everything Hitler wanted was legitimate and beyond the rule of law. This was the rationale for Jan.6 and Trump's arguments that he is above the law and that the courts should not have co-equal power to interfere with his actions as president. These actions take place in the context of lies and propaganda; one helps the other. Fascists, and wannabe fascists, imagine that all actions in defense of the law and democracy are part of a conspiracy against them. Donald Trump and his allies' abuse of the law fits an old autocratic pattern, one that has been given a new life in America. I hate applying sports analogies to politics, especially given a situation as serious as the Age of Trump. But who is 'winning right now? Trump and his 'team'? Or the other team? (the institutions and democracy, the 'Resistance,' civil society and the norms, etc.) Donald Trump and his 'team' started very aggressively, but they also made many mistakes. These mistakes include their approach to the economy and the rule of law. The apparent corruption will also not be forgotten by many American citizens. The apparent corruption and using public office to make money embodies the heart of the extremist politics of Trumpism and other forms of extreme populism and wannabe fascism. At this point, it is too soon to conclude how well Trump and his 'team' are playing the 'game.' There is another side to this 'game' that must be included. The other 'team' is those Americans who believe in democratic institutions and if they are going to go on the offense and get involved in the 'game' instead of mostly looking the other way.

We've finally slowed the surge in overdose deaths. The Trump admin may undo all of it
We've finally slowed the surge in overdose deaths. The Trump admin may undo all of it

Yahoo

time33 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

We've finally slowed the surge in overdose deaths. The Trump admin may undo all of it

On May 14, 2025, the Division of Overdose Prevention at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the number of overdose deaths in 2024 had dropped 27%. This was an extraordinary, even historic announcement, given overdoses had risen relentlessly for more than 33 years, resulting in the deaths of more than a million Americans, with another 1 million projected to die before this decade is over. Now, for more than a year, overdose deaths have decreased every single month, most dramatically for deaths caused by illicit fentanyl — considered the toughest problem, given the opioid's high potency, simplicity of manufacture, and ease of smuggling. That very same day, the new Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in testimony before Congress, made no reference to overdoses, the number one killer of Americans 18 to 44 years of age, nor to the recent success. A week later, in his agency's 72-page 'Making America Healthy Again' manifesto, the word 'opioid' was never mentioned. Instead, he went on to propose that CDC should be disassembled, along with the other principal agencies responsible for addressing the overdose crisis. Those proposals, as part of the administration's 2026 fiscal year budget, passed the House and await action by the Senate. For nearly thirty years I was a CDC scientist. I have been outspokenly critical of how CDC and those other agencies have handled the opioid crisis, but the solution is not to take a wrecking ball to the institutions that protect us, particularly when we seem to be making progress. What will be the consequences? A health secretary who systematically ignores mention of the major killer of adult Americans is clearly not interested in research on what could account for a decrease in deaths. But among recent national initiatives, the push to increase availability of the opioid overdose antidote, naloxone (brand name Narcan), has clearly played a role. Between 2021 and 2023, the number of naloxone doses dispensed from retail pharmacies doubled, and millions of additional doses were distributed by harm reduction organizations. Then in March 2023, the Food and Drug Administration approved over-the-counter distribution of a nasal spray version. By the end of the year, 20 million doses had been dispensed. The decline in overdose death rates started the month after the nasal spray became widely available. Temporal sequence is not causation, but in a public health crisis, a plausible step is mass distribution of an antidote easily administered by lay persons. Few interventions in medicine are more cost-effective than saving a life in ten seconds for $25. Shortly after being put in charge of the U.S. health care system in February 2025, Kennedy, called for immediate decreased funding for naloxone. And he didn't stop there. Slated for abolition is the National Institute for Drug Abuse, the research group at the National Institutes of Health that helped develop the nasal version of naloxone. NIDA is currently researching opioid analgesics with lower addiction risk and developing wastewater detection systems to provide early warning of new illicit drugs. What is left of NIDA will be absorbed, with other decimated institutes, into a single entity focused on 'behavioral health.'Also on the chopping block is the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, which provides the major funding for state and local naloxone distribution and drug treatment programs. CDC's Division of Overdose Prevention, which is responsible for monitoring the drug epidemic, is marked for demolition too, despite having just reported the unprecedented reduction in overdose deaths. Adding to the threat of a renewed overdose explosion, the CDC issued the stark warning of a seven-fold rise in overdoses from illicit carfentanil, an opioid 100 times more potent than fentanyl — so potent that the drug is used to sedate elephants and minuscule amounts can easily kill a person. Remnants of SAMHSA and the CDC's Division of Overdose Prevention will be folded into the new 'Agency for Healthy America." Even if we assume that every cent of the budgets of the three cancelled drug control groups is eliminated, the total reduction in the federal budget would be one-tenth of one percent, or considerably less than the cost of one aircraft carrier. According to the new director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought, these transformations should be done in a way to assure that the federal workforce will 'be traumatically affected,' and 'viewed as the villains.' What should the few remaining traumatically affected villains do about the drug crisis? Kennedy, who attributes his heroin recovery to 12-step abstinence, made that clear in his 2024 documentary: 'We're going to build hundreds of healing farms' — places where people with addiction 'learn the discipline of hard work' and 'get re-parented,' all the while bringing 'a new industry to these forgotten corners of America.' Antidotes, treatment, prevention? These are at best irrelevant — more likely, a moral hazard. The first thing you learn in public health is that all victories are temporary. Back in 2000, the CDC group where I worked demonstrated that ongoing transmission of measles — the most infectious pathogen known to humankind — had been eliminated from the U.S., thanks to nationwide hard work to raise immunization levels. A quarter-century later, because of lowered immunization levels consequent to a torrent of vaccine misinformation by Kennedy and others, there have been more than 1,000 measles cases in 30 states over the first five months of this year. The question is now before Congress: If the agencies battling the drug epidemic are disabled, will a renewed explosion of deaths result? The last time the current president was in office, overdose rates rose more than 44% over the course of his tenure — the largest overdose increase in American history, with more than 300,000 lives lost. This time, we may never know if history is repeating itself since the systems that monitor overdose deaths are themselves subject to elimination. However, families of future overdose victims may still wonder if 2025 was the year we helped make Americans die again.

More people are joining the military. A shaky US job market could be boosting the numbers.
More people are joining the military. A shaky US job market could be boosting the numbers.

Yahoo

time33 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

More people are joining the military. A shaky US job market could be boosting the numbers.

After years of shortfalls, military recruiting numbers are seeing a jump. Economic factors like unemployment rates and job openings impact military recruitment. Recruiting officials say the factors helping drive recruitment are complex. Military recruiting numbers are up — the Army met its annual goal of recruiting 61,000 troops months early and signs indicate Navy numbers are in good shape. But what is it exactly that is driving the jump? Recruiting officials say it's complicated. For the past several years, the Army and Navy fell thousands of new recruits short, a trend that only began to reverse at the end of last year — which the new administration has promoted as stemming from President Donald Trump's leadership and a surge of patriotism. The shift seems to turn on a shaky economy that's hiring less and the soaring costs of higher education, recruiting officials told BI. While the US labor market has relatively low unemployment, layoffs in the federal workforce, federal policy uncertainty, and 2025 recession fears have left companies hesitant to hire and employees less likely to quit. Fewer job openings and a slowing economy have historically pushed more young job seekers toward the military. That doesn't tell the whole story, though. Nearly 75% of young Americans cannot meet the health, fitness, and academic standards required to join the military, presenting a major challenge for recruiters. To confront the problem, the Army and Navy have made herculean efforts to usher not-yet-qualified young people into what are effectively pre-boot camps where they can lose weight, improve run times, and boost their test scores before officially joining. These changes instituted in recent years are paying off with a higher number of recruits in the pipeline, paving the way for the services to better meet their annual goals. But the services may also be benefiting from a shifting economic landscape in which the steep cost of higher education and fewer openings in the traditional labor market could mean that more young people are looking for alternative career paths with a promise of stability and education benefits. Instead of solely focusing on unemployment rates to understand why more and more young people may be choosing to enlist, a more accurate way to view military recruiting is through the lens of the Beveridge Curve, which compares how the unemployment rate stacks up against job vacancies, said Col. Lee Evans, Army Recruiting Command's director of market intelligence. Low unemployment and a high number of job openings indicate a growing labor market. Lately, however, lower unemployment has been met with limited job openings — meaning the economy is slowing, as shown in the chart below. Postings on the job-search platform Indeed decreased by 10% throughout 2024, and the federal nonfarm job openings rate has been trending down since 2022. Job seekers are scrambling as opportunities dry up across tech, computer science, government agencies, and more, factors that could be a boon for military recruiting. "What we've seen over the last couple years is that unemployment rates remain relatively low, right around 4%, but we've seen the job openings rate decrease," Evans said. "Many times, that provides a skills mismatch out in the labor market," he said. "And we're postured well to compete in that arena, because we have so many offerings within the Army." Evans added that in a volatile job market, young people might be more attracted to the military's career opportunities with transferable skills for later civilian life, like working as an electrician or HR specialist. Gen Z is already turning toward traditionally blue-collar technical careers. However, other jobs, including those in combat arms like artillery or infantry, can be much more difficult to transfer to the civilian sector. Brig. Gen. Christopher Amrhein, the commander of the Air Force Recruiting Service, told BI that young people are increasingly seeking jobs in air traffic control, firefighting, and cybersecurity, roles likely to lend a degree of long-term stability outside the service. Amrhein said another positive figure for recruiting is the surplus of soon-to-be recruits waiting in the military's "delayed entry program," which serves as a sort of holding pattern for future recruits to depart for boot camp at a later date. "From that standpoint, we're still garnering more and more talent in our Air Force and Space Force of an unbelievable quality," he added. Economic instability and fewer job openings aren't the only factors at play. The exorbitant cost of college has helped maintain a steady demand for college ROTC programs, Evans said. In 2023, a quarter of US adults under 40 had outstanding student loan debt. The military offers an alternative to debt for future officers: it can cover all or some of a student's tuition in exchange for four to eight years of service. Brig. Gen. Sara Dudley, the deputy commanding general of Army Recruiting Command, told BI that young people appear to be taking more time to decide what path they want to take, be it military service or something else. "It's really a couple of years after high school that they're ready to commit to making what feels like a big decision," she said. Enlisting is enticing for recent high school grads and twentysomethings, a chance to learn new skills and unlock generous education benefits with the GI Bill and tuition assistance programs. Many also carry on a family tradition of service in uniform, a longtime source of recruits that shrinks with each generation. Enlisted troops make up roughly 80% of the force. For those with or pursuing a bachelor's degree, a few years as an officer may be an increasingly attractive way for young people to build professional experience without the stress of student loans or an immediate post-grab job hunt. A similar trend occurred in 2009, following the widespread financial instability of the 2008 recession. America's slower birth rates aren't yet showing up in recruitment data, though the drop seems poised to hit the services soon. In 2007, the US saw over 4.3 million births. But the 2008 financial crisis prompted a drop that has largely persisted since. "That 2007 to 2008 timeframe, that's just now starting to get into our recruitable population," Evans said, referring to the military's eligible pool of young people. Even as military recruitment stands to gain from a costly higher education system and an unsteady job market, lower birth rates could present a new enduring challenge. "We're going to see that come into our recruitable population, and we know we're going to have to adapt to it," he said. "And we're already preparing for that." Have a tip or story to share? Reach out to these reporters at kbaker@ and allisonkelly@ or via Signal at KelseyBaker75.75 and alliekelly.10; here's our guide to sharing information securely. Read the original article on Business Insider

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store