Iraq oil breach: Pumping more amid price pressure
Shafaq News/ Iraq has exceeded its OPEC+ oil production quota by more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), exposing Baghdad to mounting pressure to curb output as global demand softens and oil prices decline.
Economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi, citing official data, said Iraq's crude exports averaged 3.437 million bpd in March, generating $7.716 billion in revenue. However, total production rose above 5.2 million bpd, far exceeding its OPEC+ target.
OPEC+ sources told Reuters the group may consider advancing output cuts to June if market conditions worsen. Barclays, meanwhile, lowered its 2025 Brent price forecast to $70 a barrel, citing an anticipated surplus of one million bpd.
According to the State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO), Iraq exported more than 106 million barrels of crude in March, primarily from southern oil fields, with smaller volumes from Qayyara and Kirkuk.
While Baghdad largely complied with its quota in early 2025, production surged in March, driven by the recovery of the Rumaila oilfield. April estimates suggest Iraq continued to overproduce by up to 300,000 bpd.
'This excess could lead to additional restrictions on Iraq's oil production starting in May,' Al-Marsoumi warned, adding that falling prices could face further pressure, especially with the lingering impact of tariffs imposed by former US President Donald Trump.
In response to OPEC+ pressure, Iraq has announced plans to cut exports by around 100,000 bpd in May to demonstrate compliance. Baghdad has also pledged to submit an updated compensation plan to address its earlier overproduction.
Analysts say Iraq's chronic struggle to stay within OPEC+ limits may draw sharper scrutiny this year as price weakness and supply concerns test the group's cohesion.
'Baghdad will likely face tougher demands to curb production if it wants to avoid stricter measures later this year,' one oil analyst said.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Shafaq News
32 minutes ago
- Shafaq News
Basrah crudes drop with global downturn
Shafaq News/ Basrah crude oil prices edged lower on Thursday, tracking a global decline in oil markets. Basrah Heavy crude fell by 0.27% to $63.56 per barrel, while Basrah Medium dropped by 0.24% to $66.36 per barrel. Brent crude futures fell 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $69.28 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.74.
Shafaq News
3 hours ago
- Shafaq News
Gold climbs on rising Middle East tensions, weaker dollar
Shafaq News/ Gold prices rose on Thursday, bolstered by rising tensions in the Middle East and a weaker dollar, while softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $3,375.06 an ounce, as of 0343 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 1.5% to $3,395. The U.S. dollar index fell to a near two-month low, making greenback-priced bullion more attractive to overseas buyers. The weakness in the dollar index serves as a strong catalyst, said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at OANDA, adding that a "bullish breakout" of the $3,346 resistance triggered technical buying. Rising geopolitical risks aided safe-haven assets, with President Donald Trump announcing on Wednesday that U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East due to heightened security risks amid rising tensions with Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in May, driven by cheaper gasoline, though inflation could accelerate due to import tariffs. The data prompted renewed calls from Trump for significant rate cuts. "We could potentially see the Fed moving more quickly than anticipated, given the CPI data, which is not particularly alarming at this juncture," Wong said. Traders now expect 50 basis points of rate cut by year-end. U.S. producer price index data is due at 1230 GMT. Meanwhile, Trump said on Wednesday that Washington and Beijing had agreed on a framework to restore a fragile truce in the U.S.-China trade war, potentially avoiding higher tariffs. Trump added he could extend a July 8 deadline for trade talks with other nations before higher U.S. tariffs take effect but did not foresee such a need. Elsewhere, spot silver was up 0.4% at $36.38 per ounce, platinum rose 1.3% to $1,272.50, still hovering near a more than 4-year high, while palladium was down 1% at $1,068.92.
Iraqi News
6 hours ago
- Iraqi News
Iraq's oil production fall by 59,000 barrels per day
Baghdad ( – A senior Iraqi official at the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) revealed on June 2 that the country's oil output in May declined by 59,000 barrels per day as Iraq plans to accelerate measures to compensate for prior overproduction. Iraq's oil production quota rose by 49,000 barrels per day in May, reaching a total of 4.049 million barrels per day, as reported by S&P Global. Since April 2024, eight OPEC+ countries, including Iraq, have resumed their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. The production limit was set to rise to 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July 2025. However, this increase coincides with its compensation plan, which is supposed to compensate for serial overproduction in 2024. In the most recent plan, announced by the OPEC secretariat in Vienna in April, Iraq pledged to produce oil less than its quota by 140,000 barrels per day in May. The volume of crude oil that Iraq exported by sea declined to 3.27 million barrels per day in May 2025 compared to 3.30 million barrels per day in April 2025. According to government sources, Iraq's oil exports in May and June 2025 are expected to be less than 3.2 million barrels per day to meet its OPEC+ production quota. During the first five months of 2025, Iraq's crude oil exports averaged approximately 3.33 million barrels per day, compared to 3.45 million barrels per day during the same period in 2024.
