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Ceasefire holds amid reports of limited damage to Iran nuclear plans

Ceasefire holds amid reports of limited damage to Iran nuclear plans

Yahoo5 hours ago

A fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to be holding in the 24 hours following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a truce, as media reported that US attacks in Iran have only set back Tehran's nuclear programme by a few months.
An initial intelligence evaluation suggests that the weekend's US bombardment failed to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities, the New York Times, the Washington Post and CNN reported on Tuesday.
The media outlets cited officials familiar with the military intelligence report from the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
Trump claimed that the US attacks at the weekend destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow and described the strikes as a death blow to Iran's nuclear programme.
That attack came after Israel launched large-scale attacks on Iranian targets on June 13, saying it aims to prevent the country from building a nuclear weapon, a charge Tehran has consistently denied.
Iran retaliated with waves of missile and drone strikes on Israel. There have been deaths and casualties on both sides.
Not a major setback
The DIA report said only the entrances to the deeply buried facility in Fordow were destroyed, while the underground structures themselves remained intact, according to US media. The five-page report also suggests that Iran had already moved its stockpile of enriched uranium to other locations before the attacks, the newspapers reported.
CNN reported that the attack had set back Iran's nuclear programme "by only a few months at most." The New York Times estimated the delay to be less than six months, while the Post said the delay was "by only a number of months."
White House condemns reported assessement
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, in a post on X, criticized the publication of the report, which she said was leaked to CNN by a "low-level loser in the intelligence community."
Leavitt called the assessment "flat-out wrong" and said the leak was designed to "demean President Trump and discredit" the military pilots who "conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear program."
"Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration."
Iran wants to return to normalcy
In Tehran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed a return to normal life for his country, declaring in a televised address on Tuesday evening an end to the 12-day war.
Pezeshkian described the conflict as a "terrorist attack" that came while Iran was seeking diplomatic dialogue with the United States. "The enemies violated their commitments and launched an attack during negotiations — a betrayal that history will not forget," he said.
Willingness to resume nuclear talks
In a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Pezeshkian expressed Iran's readiness to resolve differences with the US "within the framework of international norms," signalling openness to a resumption of nuclear negotiations, according to the presidential office.
He also welcomed the support of regional partners, including Oman, which recently mediated nuclear discussions between Tehran and Washington. Qatar also played a role in brokering the ceasefire, acting at the request of the US.
However Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reaffirmed Iran's intention to continue its nuclear programme.
Israel not done?
Despite Trump's ceasefire announcement, Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stressed that the campaign against arch-rival Iran was not over.
"We have concluded a significant phase, but the campaign against Iran is not over," Zamir said in a statement on Tuesday, without elaborating on future plans.
He added that the Israeli military was now entering a "new phase" concentrated on Gaza, where Israel has been fighting the Palestinian militant group Hamas for 20 months.
"Now the focus shifts back to Gaza — to bring the hostages home and to dismantle the Hamas regime," he said.
Zamir also claimed that Israel's air campaign had significantly damaged Iran's military capabilities: "We've set Iran's nuclear project back by years, and the same applies to its missile programme." These assertions could not be independently verified.
Netanyahu threatens Iran with retaliation
As midnight was nearing in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a renewed threat to Iran, saying if it moved to restore its nuclear programme, Israel would repeat its recent actions against the Islamic Republic.
Should Iran attempt to restore it, Israel "will act with the same determination and the same force to cut off any such attempt," Netanyahu said in an address on Tuesday.
After the ceasefire was announced, Trump fumed as the two sides traded accusations of further attacks being carried out, telling reporters gathered outside the White House: "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing."
A short time later he posted on his Truth Social platform: "ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" He said Israel had achieved "a historic victory" and destroyed Iran's nuclear programme.
IAEA wants inspections asap
To verify all this, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Tuesday called for nuclear inspections in Iran and said he's written to Araghchi about this.
IAEA inspectors remained in Iran throughout the conflict and are ready to return to the country's nuclear facilities to verify its stockpiles of nuclear material, according to the statement. These include more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which is close to weapons-grade level.

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On Tuesday local time, as the market bet that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would hold and the risk of severe disruptions in oil supply was fading, we saw international oil prices fall for the second consecutive day, breaking below the $70 per barrel mark, and returning to levels seen before the current round of the Israel-Iran conflict. Overnight, US WTI crude futures fell by $4.14, a drop of 6.04%, closing at $64.37 per crude futures fell by $4.34, a drop of 6.07%, closing at $67.14 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen nearly 14% over the past two days, reflecting a market reassessment of the supply and demand fundamentals. From the current global landscape, whether it's Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Russia, or the trend of increased production in the U.S., analysis indicates that the overall oil supply is relatively sufficient. Kevin Book "But where we are right now is with OPEC still adding back to the market at a time when it's looking pretty long, million and a half, 2 million barrels per day this year and next supply had to demand, if you sort of ballpark the projections. So that I think is cause for reflection." However, it should be noted that overnight the situation also briefly intensified. On the 24th local time, U.S. President Trump stated that both Israel and Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement and expressed dissatisfaction with both sides. Experts believe that violations or confusion in the early stages of a ceasefire are common, and the key issue now is whether the U.S. can exert pressure on Israel and Iran to promote the actual implementation of the ceasefire agreement. Michèle Flournoy, who served as former Under Secretary of Defense in the Obama administration, told CNBC, at present, there are still two unresolved issues regarding the situation in the Middle East. The first is, to what extent have Iran's nuclear facilities and nuclear program been damaged? This is also a major focus of market attention. On the 24th local time, CNN was the first to cite sources saying: early U.S. intelligence assessments showed that previous U.S. military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of Iran's nuclear program, and may only delay the program by a few months. The White House disagreed with the conclusions of this report. However, the report has already raised concerns in the market. Michèle Flournoy "We don't know how much of it was destroyed, how much of it was protected. So I think that is a huge question that will determine whether Israel, in particular, will feel that it can live with a cease fire and negotiations, or whether, whether they will have pressure to resume if the battle damage assessment is not as positive as they hope." Another major question is whether Iran will take negotiations more seriously than in the past. Experts point out that if Iran shows sincerity in negotiations and is willing to reach a substantive agreement to limit its nuclear program in the future, the situation in the Middle East may ease. But if the negotiations make no progress, conflict could escalate again. Therefore, Flournoy also warned: although many people are relieved by the ceasefire today, the crisis is far from over. Lastly, it's important to note that the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern for shipowners. The CEO of Greek shipping company Navios told CNBC that vessels in the Strait continue to experience GPS signal interference, which has led to an overall traffic reduction of about 20%. Many ships have also opted to sail only during daylight hours to avoid nighttime risks. This shows that the current situation remains full of uncertainty.

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