Tariffs: GCC banks face limited direct impact; oil prices key

Trade Arabia

15-04-2025

US tariffs are likely to only have small direct effects on GCC bank operating environments, but indirect impacts due to lower oil prices and weaker global economic activity, which could lead to lower government spending, will be key, Fitch Ratings says.
GCC exports to the US are dominated by hydrocarbons, which are exempt from tariffs. Non-hydrocarbon exports, which face a 10% tariff, or 25% for aluminium and steel, are relatively low, which limits the direct impact of the tariffs on GCC economies and bank operating environments, it said.
Lower oil prices and weaker global demand are the main risks for GCC bank operating environments. Government spending strongly affects bank operating conditions in most GCC countries, and a further drop in oil prices could weaken Fitch's lending growth forecasts from those in its Middle East Banks Outlook 2025, published in December 2024, which were, in most cases, close to 2024 levels.
Fitch reduced its forecast for global GDP growth in March 2025 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, and risks are tilted towards a sharper slowdown. This could put pressure on global commodity prices, particularly for hydrocarbons, which account for most government revenues in the GCC and traditionally underpin economic activity and the banking sectors, through government spending.
Fitch believes market balance and oil prices will chiefly be determined by global economic performance and OPEC+'s supply management. OPEC+ had large spare capacity of over 6 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in January and indicated plans to start unwinding its production cuts from April.
Fitch's pre-tariffs base case was that non-oil GDP for the GCC in aggregate would increase by over 3.5% in both 2025 and 2026. However, lower oil prices and budget revenues could lead to a marked reduction in non-oil economic activity and government spending, which would weaken GCC banks' lending growth prospects, it said.
Credit conditions for GCC banks could also deteriorate if corporates operating in affected sectors experience weaker profitability and cash flow due to higher operating costs and inflation resulting from the tariffs. Corporates could also face higher debt costs due to uncertainty surrounding interest rates and potential delays in rate cuts. Pressure on corporates could dampen overall credit demand and ultimately lead to higher credit risk for banks and an increase in problem loans, Fitch said.