Simon Case calls for 3pc defence spending boost to stop China
Sir Simon Case has called for Britain to raise defence spending to 3pc of GDP to protect the country from 'quasi-imperial China'.
The former Cabinet Secretary described Beijing as the 'pace-setting threat' that will dominate the next 20 years, in an interview with The Times.
He also said that the UK's defence and security network has been worn down by 'under-investment for the last couple of decades' and 'a dangerous sense of complacency'.
It comes after Sir Keir Starmer announced in February that he would raise the defence budget to 2.5pc of GDP by 2027.
The Prime Minister also said that it was his ambition to hit 3pc spending in the next Parliament, but made no firm commitment to do so.
Asked if 2.5pc spending was enough, Mr Case replied: 'probably not'.
He added: 'I think 3pc is the right sort of ambition. If we were spending 3pc right now, we'd feel different. We'd feel more positive about the state of our Armed Forces, but only if we were spending it well.
Mr Case, who helped to rewrite Britain's nuclear policy for Sir Tony Blair in 2006, said that he believed that China was the biggest threat to the nation.
'It's very tempting to get temporal in these moments, as we are currently supporting the Ukrainians in a conflict with the Russians,' he said, when asked about the greatest threat against Britain.
'The long-term issue for me though is China. It is a nation with enormous economic powers — scientific, technological, industrial. We see it spreading its intentions, influence and tentacles around the world. And they're making huge leaps forward in military technology and clearly have the intention to use it.
'And what you see is the sharing of technology with North Korea, Iran, and Russia … It's all going to be about China, whether directly or indirectly, how it's influencing others.'
He added: 'I'm pretty sure in 30 or 40 years time, people will be writing PhDs about the rise of the modern Chinese empire.'
Mr Case was appointed Cabinet Secretary by Boris Johnson in 2020 to help steer the country through the Covid crisis.
He remained in place under Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir until he stepped down in September 2024.
He had previously worked as principal private secretary to Lord Cameron and Baroness May during their premierships, before a two-year spell as private secretary to the Prince of Wales.
He said he believed the next 10 to 20 years would be filled with interstate conflict.
'As ever, when you're trying to describe an enormous system, there are some bits that are in better shape than others,' he said.
'In general and for what we face, not in the round is probably the right assessment.'
'I'm sorry to say I'm a something of a pessimist on these questions. As I look out on my children's lives, the next 10 and probably 20 years is going to be dominated by this interstate conflict.
'It feels to me that we, across the Western alliance, need to get our skates on and be ready, certainly by 2030.'
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