Minnesota's biggest Trump tariff losers
State of play: The Richfield-based electronics retailer, which gets most of its products from China and Mexico, saw its share price drop 16.7% over the past week.
Zoom out: Other big Minnesota companies that have taken major hits include 3M and its healthcare spinoff Solventum, as well as U.S. Bank and lawnmower maker Toro.
The other side: Minnesota's big food companies are less affected by the tariffs.
General Mills' stock is down only 2% since the tariff announcement, while Hormel's was down 2.9%.
General Mills CEO Jeffrey Harmening told analysts in February that tariffs "aren't really meaningful" for General Mills because it sources 95% of its products in the U.S., according to Food Dive.
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The Hill
28 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump stuns Wall Street, Washington with controversial BLS nominee
President Trump's pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is breaking the mold of his predecessors and causing alarm among economists of all stripes Commissioners of the BLS are usually academics or career civil servants with decades of experience in statistics and economics. But EJ Antoni, who Trump nominated to lead the agency after firing former BLS chief Erika McEntarfer on the heels of a disappointing jobs report earlier this month, has more bona fides as a pundit and conservative advocate than he does as a statistician. The choice of Antoni to lead a statistical division whose data is scrutinized by businesses and governments all over the world is getting major backlash from the economics profession and sparking concerns about the politicization of bedrock-level economic data. 'E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner,' Harvard University economist Jason Furman, who worked for the Obama administration, wrote on social media. 'He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant experience.' Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, echoed Furman's words. 'He's utterly unqualified and as partisan as it gets,' he told the Washington Post. Who is EJ Antoni? Antoni has been the chief economist of the Heritage Foundation's center on the federal budget for the past four months. The Heritage Foundation is a right-wing think tank that produced the wide-ranging Project 2025 policy agenda. Project 2025 took aim at the 'permanent political class' in Washington, and many of its budget-cutting recommendations have been carried out by the Trump administration. He held two research fellowships at Heritage prior to his current position and two other fellowships at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, a conservative advocacy group led by billionaire Steve Forbes. Antoni submitted his doctoral dissertation in 2020, in which he defends positions associated with 'supply-side economics,' a conservative policy doctrine that became popular in the 1980s. Besides stints as an adjunct at a community college and as an instructor at his alma mater of Northern Illinois University, he's held no other academic posts. By comparison, McEntarfer worked for 20 years as an economist with the Census Bureau. Her predecessor William Beach was the chief economist for the Senate Budget Committee, and his predecessor Erica Groshen spent 20 years as an economist at the New York Federal Reserve and referees for about a dozen academic journals. Antoni is a frequent guest on a number of conservative media outlets. While BLS makes it a point to produce — rather than interpret — economic data, Antoni has been hitting talking points on recent BLS releases in media appearances, a stark contrast with the agency's typical cut-and-dry communications. Discussing the dismal July jobs report, he emphasized job growth among native-born Americans on former Trump adviser Steven Bannon's internet podcast. 'There was some good news in the report, too, that we should definitely highlight,' he said. 'All of the net job growth over the last 12 months has gone to native-born Americans.' The Heritage Foundation did not respond to a request for an interview with Antoni. Backlash from economists Economists aren't mincing their words about Antoni's credentials. One economist at the University of Wisconsin refuted one of Antoni's recent papers, showing it contained basic statistical mistakes and finding that it wasn't possible to replicate its results — an academic kiss of death. Alan Cole, an economist with the conservative Tax Foundation think tank, described the errors in the paper as 'stunning.' 'Stunning errors in a tweet are bad, but worse to do it in long form, where there's more time and effort involved,' he wrote on social media. Conservative economists have also been blasting the firing of McEntarfer after the July jobs report showed that a meager 106,000 jobs have been added to the economy since May. Trump accused the agency — without any evidence — of producing 'rigged' data, which many economists have said is poppycock. 'The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer … sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau,' William Beach, a Trump appointee who preceded McEntarfer as head of the BLS, wrote online. Warnings to senators Antoni is expected to be easily confirmed by the GOP-controlled Senate after he appears before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee, which will also need to approve his nomination. Antoni's critics are waging a long-shot effort to turn GOP members of the committee against the nominee ahead of his likely confirmation. Friends of the BLS, a group that advocates for the agency and that's chaired by Beach and his predecessor Erica Groshen, called out Antoni in a statement Wednesday, describing the debate about his nomination as 'contentious.' 'BLS now … faces the additional challenge of a contentious debate over the nominee for the next Commissioner, Dr. EJ Antoni,' they said. Groshen told The Hill they hope the nomination process will be 'very thorough.' 'The responsibility of the Senate HELP committee … is particularly important at this time,' she added. The Hill reached out to all Republican members of the committee about Antoni's qualifications, most of whom didn't respond. A representative for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she wouldn't be commenting on the nomination prior to the hearing. What would politicized labor data look like? Antoni has already floated some massive changes to BLS data releases, including canceling regular monthly reports in favor of quarterly releases — a change that would alter the entire cadence of economic data output and affect nearly every private and public sector model of the U.S. economy. He told Fox News before his nomination that 'the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly jobs reports, but keep publishing more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,' since BLS data is often subject to revision. Former BLS chiefs told The Hill they're keeping an eye on a regulatory standard known as OMB Directive No. 3, which governs the rules of BLS releases, for any sign that agency data could become politicized. 'Violations of that would be very unusual, and therefore indicative of something unusual underneath it,' Groshen said. Antoni has delivered some conflicting remarks on BLS data revisions, attributing them to 'incompetent' leadership under McEntarfer during his appearance on Bannon's podcast and then noting later that the problems pre-dated her time as agency commissioner. 'I think that's part of the reason why we continue to have all of these different data problems,' he said before adding that 'this is not a problem unique to the Trump administration.' Real problems with BLS data In fact, the downward revisions in the July jobs report that prompted Trump's firing of McEntarfer were due to the late reporting of educational employment figures by state and local governments, along with the more pronounced seasonal effects in that sector since teachers don't work in the summer. That's fairly typical for the agency, current and former employees of the BLS told The Hill. 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Bloomberg
29 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Trade Partners Grow Restless Waiting for Trump's Tariff Breaks
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Business Insider
an hour ago
- Business Insider
The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, August 17, 2025
Everything to Know about Macro and Markets Stocks ended the week on a soft note, still managing to lock in back-to-back weekly gains. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.94% for the week, and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) inched up 0.43%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was the standout, delivering a weekly gain of 1.74%. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. A Week of Contrasts After a red Monday, all three major indexes reached all-time highs on Tuesday. This followed in-line CPI data, which bolstered bets that the Fed would deliver its first rate cut of 2025 in September – traders have priced in nearly a 100% chance of a 25-bps easing. Stocks extended gains on Wednesday: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new ATHs again amid remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging a 50-bps cut based on downward revisions in payroll data. Wall Street analysts began forecasting up to three cuts this year, citing a softer labor market, limited tariff pass-through to consumer prices, and the appointment of Trump's temporary Fed board pick. But those forecasts were questioned Thursday when PPI, which tracks wholesale price trends, came in hotter than expected, denting sentiment and clouding the Fed outlook. Other economic reports pulled markets in opposing directions: July's industrial production was lackluster – although not recession-bellwether weak – while retail sales beat forecasts, underscoring resilient consumer demand despite high borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the UoM consumer sentiment unexpectedly slipped and inflation expectations rose, muddying the outlook for Fed cuts in September. On Friday, the Dow's gains were dominated by UnitedHealth's surge following Berkshire Hathaway's disclosure of a large stake in the embattled healthcare giant. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's advances were tempered by tech weakness amid cautious corporate outlooks and persistent tariff concerns, particularly in semiconductors. This week featured leadership rotation: healthcare and small-caps rose, while semiconductors and tech lagged under the weight of inflation and trade worries. With mixed inflation and consumer data re-injecting uncertainty into the Fed policy outlook, all eyes now turn to Jackson Hole. Jerome Powell's speech on August 22 is the marquee event, expected to instantly influence markets. A dovish tone could broaden the rally, boosting small caps, rate-sensitive areas, and tech. A hawkish stance – highlighting inflation risks or caution – could trigger sharp corrections and volatility, especially in growth and rate-sensitive sectors. Adaptability, Profitability, and Capex Economic data remains mixed – but corporate signals are broadly bullish, despite overbought pockets and uneven strength. As Benjamin Graham famously said, 'in the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.' Prices may swing on sentiment or episodic events, but over time, earnings growth is what ultimately matters. On that front, Q2 2025 earnings have been compelling: over 90% of companies have reported, with average EPS growth near 11% year-over-year – versus expectations of 3-4% at the quarter's start. This follows a similar pattern seen in Q1 season. In the second quarter, 84% beat expectations, surprising by an average of 9%. U.S. companies' adaptability – particularly in counteracting tariff shocks – is helping shield both the economy and equity markets. Notably, S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS estimates are now at record highs, driven largely by tech megacap profitability and reinvestment. AI capex alone has contributed more to GDP growth in H1 2025 than consumer spending. While over the long term, consumer demand has been the undisputed engine of growth – megacaps' AI and cloud investment plans signal continued acceleration of their role in fueling the expansion. The sterling Q2 earning-growth results have broadly dispelled investor fears over trade policies weighing on the economy and corporate performance. FactSet reports that 'recession' mentions in earnings calls dropped nearly 70% from Q1 2025, hitting their lowest levels since 2005. Polymarket's 2025 recession odds plunged from over 65% in May to 12%, signaling there's no longer a belief that levies on imports mean a recession is imminent. Tariffs still get airtime, even if much less than in Q1 – but the C-suite and market participants now see them as manageable. Factors such as lower energy prices and decelerating housing-related inflation are further diluting the tariff impact. Strategists now expect any tariff impact on inflation to be delayed and muted, with economic growth holding relatively firm. Stocks That Made the News ▣ UnitedHealth (UNH) soared over 22% on the week after Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B) disclosed a new stake in the beaten-down healthcare provider. Warren Buffett's conglomerate acquired 5.04 million UNH shares valued at $1.57 billion. ▣ Applied Materials (AMAT) plunged 13% despite delivering record performance last quarter, as the chip equipment provider offered weaker-than-expected guidance amid weak China demand, stalled export license approvals, and uneven orders. Despite the near-term challenges, the company remains optimistic about mid-single-digit growth for fiscal 2025, driven by investments in U.S. manufacturing and advancements in semiconductor technology. ▣ Intel (INTC) was on the winning side of the semi trade, popping by over 22% on the week following reports that the Trump administration was mulling the potential for the government to take a stake in the embattled company to aid domestic chip manufacturing expansion. ▣ Palantir Technologies (PLTR) declined after Andrew Left, head of short-selling firm Citron Research, said he was betting against the company in light of its lofty valuation, which he called 'absurd.' ▣ Amazon (AMZN) rallied as analysts applauded analysts applauding its expansion into free same-day grocery delivery nationwide for Prime members. Evercore ISI said that this expansion deepens Amazon's customer engagement by strengthening a high-frequency purchase category into the Prime ecosystem, increasing stickiness and customer lifetime value. ▣ Oracle (ORCL) also bucked the down trend on Friday, rallying on news of expanded partnership with Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google Cloud. Under the collaboration, Oracle will integrate Google's Gemini AI models into Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). This allows Oracle's enterprise customers to access Google's Gemini AI capabilities – including multimodal understanding, coding assistance, and workflow automation – via OCI services, enhancing productivity and workflow automation. The deal – similar to one that Oracle struck with Elon Musk's xAI back in June – is expected to significantly broaden Oracle's AI offerings, advancing its strategy of offering a menu of AI options rather than trying to push its own technology exclusively. The Q2 2025 earnings season is winding down, but several notable releases are still scheduled for this week. These include: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), Analog Devices (ADI), Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), and Ross Stores (ROST).
