Historic by-election win and growing local power leave Welsh parties on alert
Is Reform UK heading for the Senedd?
REFORM UK has shocked Westminster and sent tremors through political circles this week after securing its first-ever parliamentary by-election win in Runcorn and Helsby — by just six votes. Labour's once-safe seat fell after a dramatic recount, and the result has triggered a wave of commentary and speculation across the UK.
But here in Wales, a bigger question now looms: is Reform on the march towards the Senedd?
Nigel Farage's party isn't stopping at parliamentary ambition. As celebrations broke out in Widnes and Greater Lincolnshire — where Dame Andrea Jenkyns swept into the mayoral office by over 40,000 votes — senior figures in Reform were already turning their attention to Wales.
A serious Senedd strategy
Reform UK is now openly targeting the 2026 Senedd elections. Their goal? To take advantage of the new electoral system and secure a sizeable bloc of seats in Cardiff Bay. With the chamber expanding from 60 to 96 members and moving to a closed proportional list system, the conditions are ripe for smaller parties to make major gains — especially those with growing national visibility and momentum.
Reform insiders have spoken of ambitions to win '20 to 40 seats' in the new Senedd. Their strategy includes setting up local associations, holding regional events across Wales, and recruiting candidates well ahead of the vote — a far more professional operation than in 2021, when they stood in just a few constituencies.
Crucially, the new system will reward strong second-place showings and broaden representation. With Reform finishing a close second to Labour in three major English mayoral contests this week, the signs are clear that their support base is not only wide but growing — particularly among those disillusioned with both Labour and the Conservatives.
Welsh political identity under pressure
In Wales, where national identity and devolution have traditionally shaped politics, Reform will face different challenges. But their messaging around immigration, cost of living, and public services has already struck a chord in Leave-voting and economically disadvantaged areas — including parts of South Wales, the North East, and coastal constituencies like Clwyd South and Delyn.
In those areas, Labour is watching nervously. Some internal polling, leaked to national media earlier this year, suggested that Reform could overtake Labour in parts of the former 'red wall' in Wales. With support from both ex-Tories and working-class voters fed up with economic decline and political promises, Reform is pitching itself as the party of blunt answers and bold change.
Pembrokeshire in the frame?
So far, Reform has made limited inroads in West Wales — but that could change. Issues like NHS centralisation, rural crime, post-Brexit farming policy, and housing unaffordability have created fertile ground for anti-establishment sentiment.
Whether Reform can tap into that frustration depends on its ability to build local operations, recruit credible Welsh candidates, and engage seriously with devolved policy — not just reheated Westminster soundbites. That will be a major test for a party often accused of being too 'English-focused.'
The verdict
Farage said this morning that Reform had 'bitten quite hard' into Labour's heartlands and claimed to have supplanted the Conservatives as the 'main opposition party.' While that may be premature, what's clear is that the political establishment is scrambling to respond to a new force that is no longer a protest vote.
In Wales, the challenge for Labour and Plaid Cymru is urgent. For now, Reform's victories are in England — but their ambitions lie firmly across the border too.
Come 2026, Welsh voters may be offered something they haven't seen before: Reform UK on the ballot for their Senedd. And based on this week's results, it would be unwise to write them off.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Glasgow Times
2 hours ago
- Glasgow Times
Consultation to consider extending ban on destructive bottom trawling fishing
Marine and fisheries stakeholders are being asked to take part in a consultation on the prohibition of destructive bottom-towed fishing gear that could affect approximately 30,000 km2 across 41 marine protected areas (MPAs). Environment Secretary Steve Reed says 'urgent action' is needed to protect seabeds and nature before irreversible damage is caused. Bottom trawling uses nets that can be as large as a football field and weigh several tonnes (Alamy/PA) The UK is under pressure to step up marine protections as the third UN Ocean Conference begins in France on Monday. Governments, business leaders, scientists and campaigners are gathering for the environmental summit in Nice where the spotlight will be on the commitments individual governments make to reduce the impact on their territorial waters, such as banning the damaging fishing practice of bottom trawling in MPAs. The consultation, led by the Marine Management Organisation (MMO) and Defra, runs for 12 weeks from Monday to September 1. The proposed measures would add to the approximately 18,000 km2 of English seabed already protected from bottom-towed fishing gear. MPAs are areas of the ocean established to protect habitats and species essential for healthy marine ecosystems, allowing vulnerable, rare and important marine life to recover from damaging human activities. Bottom trawling and other forms of destructive fishing are permitted in UK waters but conservationists have long been campaigning for a full ban across all marine protected areas. There are 181 MPAs, including three highly protected marine areas (HPMAs), covering 93,000km² or 40% of English waters. The measures aim to protect marine habitats ranging from subtidal sandbanks to gravels to muds, and support important marine species such as lobster, clams, soft corals and langoustines. A ban on bottom trawling in these areas could help conserve valuable and rare marine life, and allow seabeds to recover from damage caused by destructive fishing practices. It could lead to healthier marine ecosystems across English waters, support greater biodiversity and help preserve vulnerable underwater life. New management measures for fishing in 42 MPAs in English waters – a ban on bottom-towed fishing in 41, and the prohibition of fishing using traps in a specified area – are among the proposals. Mr Reed said: 'Bottom trawling is damaging our precious marine wildlife and habitats. 'Without urgent action, our oceans will be irreversibly destroyed – depriving us, and generations to come, of the sea life on which we all enjoy. 'The Government is taking decisive action to ban destructive bottom trawling where appropriate.' Ariana Densham, head of oceans at Greenpeace UK, said the consultation is 'ultimately a long-overdue completion of a process started by the previous government' and added that bottom-trawling in the protected sea areas is 'like bulldozing national parks'. She said: 'The Government should now strengthen the ban to cover all parts of our marine protected areas, and other types of destructive industrial fishing like supertrawlers and fly-shooters. 'Only this will ensure our marine ecosystems are protected in reality – not only on paper. 'The goal to protect at least 30% of the ocean by 2030 is global, and while the UK must do its part at home it also has a critical role to play in protecting the high seas far from our shores.' Tom Brook, ocean conservation specialist at WWF, said 'done right, these protections can be a win for people, nature and the climate' and 'this is exactly the kind of leadership we need if the UK is to deliver on its promise to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030'. Joan Edwards, The Wildlife Trusts policy and public affairs director, hoped the consultation would see the measures introduced 'rapidly to enable recovery of these sites, a win-win for both nature and the climate.' Oceana UK executive director Hugo Tagholm described the proposals as 'a golden opportunity to safeguard these vital marine sanctuaries from the most damaging fishing practices.' He added: 'If these whole-site bans are fully implemented, this could provide an invaluable and urgently needed lifeline for England's seas, which are so crucial for wildlife and climate resilience.' The consultation comes after Ocean With David Attenborough, released in cinemas to mark the renowned naturalist and TV presenter's 99th birthday last month, showed new footage of a bottom trawling net blasting through silt on the seafloor and scooping up species indiscriminately. Bottom trawling is the act of dragging heavy nets across the seabed (Alamy/PA) The world will also be watching at the summit in Nice to see which countries ratify the UN High Seas Treaty – a pact to establish protected areas across international waters. The ocean treaty, which was agreed by 193 countries two years ago, will not come into force until ratification by 60 countries but just over half of that number have done so. The UK Government is among those that have been criticised by environmentalists for not yet ratifying the treaty or at the very least announcing a timetable to introduce the legislation required. Asked last week whether there has been any progress, nature minister Mary Creagh told the PA news agency: 'We need a legislative slot in Parliament's timetable. 'Any international treaty has to be done by the Foreign Office. We have had discussions with Foreign Office ministers. 'I am confident the treaty will be ratified but it will be ratified in due course.'
North Wales Chronicle
2 hours ago
- North Wales Chronicle
Farage to call for Port Talbot blast furnaces to reopen
On a visit to the South Wales town, the party leader is expected to say that the resumption of traditional steelmaking should be a long-term ambition, a spokesman said. Mr Farage believes his party has a chance of ending Labour's long-standing dominance in Wales during the Senedd elections next year amid opinion poll momentum and gains made at the local polls last month. The Government has backed plans for a new £1.25 billion electric arc furnace at the Tata steelworks, with the switch-on due in 2027 as part of the push towards greener production. The plant's last blast furnace was shut down in September 2024. Some MPs have said workers in South Wales have been let down in comparison with those retaining jobs in Scunthorpe, where ministers took control of the steelworks to prevent the closure of its blast furnaces. The Government has said the two steelworks were in different situations. Mr Farage's speech comes as Reform seeks to draw a line under internal clashes after chairman Zia Yusuf quit the party on Thursday only to return 48 hours later, saying the resignation had been 'born out of exhaustion'. It followed a row in which he described a question to the Prime Minister concerning a ban on burkas from his party's newest MP, Sarah Pochin, as 'dumb'. Mr Yusuf will now have four jobs, including leading the party's plans to cut public spending via the so-called 'UK Doge', based on the US Department of Government Efficiency which was led by tech billionaire Elon Musk. Mr Farage's spokesman said: 'He will focus part of the speech on Keir Starmer's year of failure in the UK as a whole but especially Wales. Of course for years Welsh Labour blamed all issues on the Tories in Westminster, now their excuse is gone and the game is up for them.' Reform had also been hoping to cause an upset last week in Scotland, where it was fighting a Holyrood by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, but Labour secured a shock victory. Scotland's First Minister John Swinney had claimed the contest would be a 'two-horse race' between the SNP and Reform but Mr Farage's party came third with 7,088 votes to Labour's 8,559 and the SNP's 7,957.
South Wales Guardian
2 hours ago
- South Wales Guardian
North missed £140bn of transport investment over last government, research finds
Independent analysis by think tank the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) looked at Treasury figures between 2009/10 and 2022/23, during which time the Conservatives were in power. It reached the figure, which it said was enough to build seven Elizabeth Lines, by considering the amount of spending per person across the different English regions over that period. While England as a whole saw £592 spent per person each year, London received double that amount with £1,183 spent per person, the IPPR said. The entire North region saw £486 spent per person, with the North East and North West seeing £430 and £540 spent per person respectively. This amounted to £140 billion of missed investment for the North, more than the entire £83 billion estimate of capital spending on transport in the region since 1999/2000, according to the analysis. The region with the lowest amount of investment over the period was the East Midlands with just £355 spent per person. Among the most divisive transport investment projects for the previous government was the HS2 rail project, which was axed north of Birmingham in October 2023. Then-prime minister Rishi Sunak pledged to 'reinvest every single penny, £36 billion, in hundreds of new transport projects in the North and the Midlands', including improvements to road, rail and bus schemes. Earlier this week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a £15.6 billion package for mayoral authorities to use on public transport projects across the North and Midlands ahead of the spending review. It is expected to include funding to extend the metros in Tyne and Wear, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands, along with a renewed tram network in South Yorkshire and a new mass transit system in West Yorkshire. Marcus Johns, senior research fellow at IPPR North, said: 'Today's figures are concrete proof that promises made to the North over the last decade were hollow. It was a decade of deceit. 'We are 124 years on from the end of Queen Victoria's reign, yet the North is still running on infrastructure built during her rein – while our transport chasm widens. 'This isn't London bashing – Londoners absolutely deserve investment. But £1,182 per person for London and £486 for northerners? The numbers don't lie – this isn't right. 'This Government have begun to restore fairness with their big bet on transport cash for city leaders. 'They should continue on this journey to close this investment gap in the upcoming spending review and decades ahead.' Former Treasury minister Lord Jim O'Neill said: 'Good governance requires the guts to take a long-term approach, not just quick fixes. So the Chancellor is right in her focus on the UK's long-standing supply-side weaknesses – namely our woeful productivity and weak private and public investment. 'Backing major infrastructure is the right call, and this spending review is the right time for the Chancellor to place a big bet on northern growth and begin to close this investment chasm. 'But it's going to take more than commitments alone – she'll need to set out a transparent framework for delivery.'
