March Madness picks: Odds, lines, expert predictions, watch times, schedule for NCAA tournament East region; can anyone beat Duke?

Yahoo

20-03-2025

Duke played most of the ACC tournament without Cooper Flagg, the consensus national player of the year favorite and a near-lock to be the first pick of the NBA Draft, and still won that title.
With Flagg likely to return for the NCAA tournament, who can stop Duke in the East region? It's hard to see it happening though the Blue Devils will be tested at some point. Maybe. The hunt to knock off Duke starts with the first round, and some intriguing matchups in that quadrant of the bracket.
Here are the picks for most of the first-round games from the East region (we're waiting on the Duke first-round opponent from the American vs. Mount St. Mary's First Four game) odds from BetMGM:
South region picks | Midwest region picks | West region picks
All times Eastern.
If you're a casual college basketball fan, you might not recognize Wisconsin. The Badgers regularly scored in the 80s, reaching 100 against Arizona and Iowa. But the Big Ten championship featured old, offensively challenged Wisconsin, as a tired Badgers team scored 53 points in a loss to Michigan. John Tonje, Wisconsin's All-America candidate, was particularly bad, shooting 1-of-14. Was that a one-off for the Badgers, or a precursor to an offensive slump and an early tournament exit? Playing in Denver won't help the fatigue. Montana has been playing well lately, though the Big Sky is usually not a good tourney bet (3-10-1 against the spread in the first round since 2009, according to Matt Eisenberg's Tournament Guide). This just seems like too many points, even against a Wisconsin team that can score.
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It's never fun when two teams you liked going into the tournament get matched up against each other. Such is the case with this game, as a red-hot BYU team faces VCU, which has a lot of experience and a strong defense. Since Feb. 11, BYU ranks as the fifth-best team in college basketball, according to BartTorvik.com. The Cougars also get a nice travel edge, heading to Denver. It's a shorter trip and they're far more accustomed to the elevation. It is hard to pick against VCU, which has the ability to get to the second weekend despite being a No. 11 seed, but BYU has been too good lately. This could end up being the best game of the first round.
Baylor's season started with a 101-63 loss to Gonzaga, and while the Bears ended up being a solid team, that loss set the tone for a fairly disappointing season. Baylor has talent, including projected NBA lottery pick VJ Edgecombe, but the Bears haven't won more than two games in a row since December. They were simply underwhelming. Mississippi State hasn't had more than a two-game winning streak since early January either. In fact, it's 7-11 since a 14-1 start. This is an 8 vs. 9 game between two teams that are very unlikely to challenge Duke in the second round. We'll take the SEC team but not with much confidence.
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Of the more than 350 NCAA Division I men's basketball teams, which one had the best record against the spread this season? That would be Robert Morris, which went 26-7, according to Action Network. ATS standings aren't necessarily predictive, but it's worth noting. Alabama is good enough that it won at Auburn in the regular-season finale. It is going to push the pace, which helps those bettors who are rooting for a blowout. We'll trust Robert Morris, which has shown it can cover spreads, to keep this from being a total laugher.
Duke isn't in danger of being upset. It might be the best team in the field. But there isn't much reason to run it up on Mount St. Mary's. Duke might want to take it easy and do enough to win conformably, but St. Mary's covers a huge number.
One good metric to judge college basketball teams on is road record. We know it's much easier to win at home, so winning away from a friendly environment is telling. St. Mary's was 9-1 on the road and Vanderbilt was 3-7. It's tougher to win on the road in the SEC than the West Coast Conference, but St. Mary's had a much better record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games (10-5 for St. Mary's vs. 9-12 for Vanderbilt). St. Mary's is simply the better team and should pull away for the cover.
Arizona is going to be a hard team to bet on or against this tournament. Bettors are at the whims of its shooting, which can be inconsistent. But the Wildcats are a good team that was a little unlucky during a 4-5 start but got some great wins in conference play. One key in this game could be Arizona's 7-foot big man Henri Veesaar, who averaged 9.5 points per game. Akron is one of the shortest teams in the tournament. The Zips are a good team though. They will play fast and shoot a lot of 3s, and if they shoot it OK, it will help keep the game close. Akron dominated the MAC all season. Akron should be good enough to cover a big spread, though it will depend on whether Arizona's shots are falling.
Liberty, Liberty, Liberty! When looking for a double-digit seed that can win a game, the first thing to check out is if it can shoot. Well, Liberty was second in college basketball in effective field-goal percentage, fueled by being fifth in 3-point percentage via KenPom.com. Oregon is a good team that won eight in a row before losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament. The Ducks also have a huge travel edge, as this game will be in Seattle. That's an important factor. Still, Liberty's shooting makes it a good pick and a perfectly reasonable 5 vs. 12 upset selection for your bracket.