A top exec says America's oil industry is at a 'tipping point' and US production is set to drop
America's oil boom is at a crosrroads, according to a top industry executive.
The CEO of Diamondback Energy warned that tumbling oil prices will depress US crude output, predicting that American onshore production has peaked. Prices hit a four-year low on Monday, with WTI crude trading below $60 a barrel since the start of May.
"On an inflation-adjusted basis, there have only been two quarters since 2004 where front month oil prices have been as cheap as they are today (excluding 2020 which was impacted by the global pandemic)," Travis D. Stice wrote in a letter to shareholders.
"Therefore, we believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices."
Industry observers have warned that tumbling prices pose a risk to the sector, as businesses will be reluctant to pump more oil at low profit margins.
The Diamondback CEO's letter is another strike against President Donald Trump's " drill, baby, drill agenda." In a survey from the Dallas Fed last month, oil and gas executives bashed the administration's push to increase US production, describing Trump's agenda as " nothing short of a myth."
Stice noted that the US has produced more oil and gas than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined, the world's second and third largest producers.
But if Stice is right, the trend of record-setting US oil production may be reaching its end. Tariffs are denting growth outlooks, implying that global oil demand will be low.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ is positioning to boost output, putting fresh downward pressure on prices.
By the end of the second quarter, Stice expects the US oil rig count to drop 10%. Permian Basin crew counts are already down around 20%, he wrote.
Diamondback is responding by lowering activity to cut down on capital expenditures, drilling, and well completion.
"Put simply, we would prefer to use the incremental dollar generated to repurchase shares and pay down debt over drilling and completing wells at these prices today," Stice wrote.
The company reduced its full year budget by $400 million at the midpoint. It might ramp up activity if oil prices return above $65 per barrel consistently.
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